Where is the center of 92L?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1# Don't look at water vapor to find a LLC.
2# The shear appears to be north of the system.

In here is something that might impress you
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 99_N5A.gif

[elysium]

Right now it appears to be heading more westward. It has to clear those islands if it is to have a fair shot at vigorous development. Center near vicinity of St. Croix. Can anyone determine if it's heading west or W.N.W.? Looks a little west to me.

[clfenwi]

Right now it appears to be heading more westward. It has to clear those islands if it is to have a fair shot at vigorous development. Center near vicinity of St. Croix. Can anyone determine if it's heading west or W.N.W.? Looks a little west to me.

They've been initializing the models with a west-northwest heading (285 °)

[HURRICANELONNY]

The models are useless till the center is located. The low is too broad from 10n to 17n. We need a little wrap around with the convection and the ULL has to get out of the way. This time of year it could explode as soon as the wave gets the right enviroment. Could be today...???

[clfenwi]

The models are useless till the center is located. The low is too broad from 10n to 17n. We need a little wrap around with the convection and the ULL has to get out of the way. This time of year it could explode as soon as the wave gets the right enviroment. Could be today...???

The low pressure center is not that broad... it is located at 17 N ... the extent of the wave is to 10 North (that is not the extent of the pressure center).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

Also, the initialization of the models I was citing is done with human input. Agree that if you can't pin down a center then the initialization is just a guess, however, it is a well-trained guess...

[wxmann_91]

The models are useless till the center is located. The low is too broad from 10n to 17n. We need a little wrap around with the convection and the ULL has to get out of the way. This time of year it could explode as soon as the wave gets the right enviroment. Could be today...???

This won't explode until at least tomorrow, if it does at all (and it probably won't). Floridians won't need to worry much about this system as it'll bring mostly some gusty winds and welcome rains to cool you guys off.

Of course, I'm not saying it won't develop into a TC, I'm just saying that Harvey, if it develops, probably won't be something too big for Floridians to handle.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

-it won't be too big a deal for Floridians as long as it doesn't head right along into the gulf through the straits! If it heads that way, unempeded directly by land, we could see a huge surge in intensity. The waters are very warm. Look how fast some of the other systems developed this year and last with that kind of heat to work with!
The thing that I am trying to watch is the relationship of that front that is stalled *for now*. Is that thing going to decide to prog east right as a possible Harvey is traveling up into the GOM? -that's the thing us west-coast Floridians watch for.

[Ivanhater]

-it won't be too big a deal for Floridians as long as it doesn't head right along into the gulf through the straits! If it heads that way, unempeded directly by land, we could see a huge surge in intensity. The waters are very warm. Look how fast some of the other systems developed this year and last with that kind of heat to work with!
The thing that I am trying to watch is the relationship of that front that is stalled *for now*. Is that thing going to decide to prog east right as a possible Harvey is traveling up into the GOM? -that's the thing us west-coast Floridians watch for.

it would be very rare for a front to push that far , but everyone needs to keep a close eye on this indeed

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I know it is rare at this time of year, which is why I am concerned. The TWC and local mets keep reiterating how "rare" this front is, due to its strength and how far south it has already gone. It brought nice temps to a good portion of the country - some needed relief. But seeing that sort of a front at this time of year is making me nervous. Is this going to be the beginning of a pattern of dipping fronts and a strong ridge that could be our direction dictators through August and September? That would be a nightmare for all of florida. -slight shifts east or west would put the panhandle through the east coast under the guns!
Hopefully that isn't at all the case though and it is certainly way too early to guess what the patterns will set up like months from now.
-but the current setup still gives me pause fr what may transpire next week. Even if the front doesn't come way down into the gulf, the ridge having pulled slightly more northerly and forecast to build back again to the west in a few days, seems to be setting up a periphery that could be problemsome for us anyway, regardless of the front.

[Ivanhater]

I know it is rare at this time of year, which is why I am concerned. The TWC and local mets keep reiterating how "rare" this front is, due to its strength and how far south it has already gone. It brought nice temps to a good portion of the country - some needed relief. But seeing that sort of a front at this time of year is making me nervous. Is this going to be the beginning of a pattern of dipping fronts and a strong ridge that could be our direction dictators through August and September? That would be a nightmare for all of florida. -slight shifts east or west would put the panhandle through the east coast under the guns!
Hopefully that isn't at all the case though and it is certainly way too early to guess what the patterns will set up like months from now.
-but the current setup still gives me pause fr what may transpire next week. Even if the front doesn't come way down into the gulf, the ridge having pulled slightly more northerly and forecast to build back again to the west in a few days, seems to be setting up a periphery that could be problemsome for us anyway, regardless of the front.

yes, i have your same concerns too....i tell you, every little blob makes me nervous, probably you as well...after last year who could blame us?

[Sanibel]

Ill defined LLC heading towards Antilles where it will probably rip up.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

You folks in Pensacola are way more, and deservedly, skittish! All these storms have gotten you simply because of the ridge shape. -now its pulled a little more east and north, which is why west coasters are watching now.
The best bet for you guys is actually to have the fronts, since they usually seem to time better to put storms up into the big bend rather than right on top of you *again!*.
I agree we all have to share the burden and cathc one now and then, and we in tampa bay have been incredibly lucky. (80 yrs since a biggy!) You guys have more than taken a few hits on the chin. Hopefully the season is over for you folks.

[Ivanhater]

You folks in Pensacola are way more, and deservedly, skittish! All these storms have gotten you simply because of the ridge shape. -now its pulled a little more east and north, which is why west coasters are watching now.
The best bet for you guys is actually to have the fronts, since they usually seem to time better to put storms up into the big bend rather than right on top of you *again!*.
I agree we all have to share the burden and cathc one now and then, and we in tampa bay have been incredibly lucky. (80 yrs since a biggy!) You guys have more than taken a few hits on the chin. Hopefully the season is over for you folks.

ya, hopefully were done for a while, those fronts certainly can help, i remember charley was supposed to head up into our area but that front helped out, i guess well find out what will happen to 92l soon enough

[HUC]

Hi,cycloneye,be in alert...I think that the center of the system is somewhere between Antigua,and St Christopher.
In Guadeloupe,we have winds from the SSEst at the Raizet airport at 17mph,and here in Basse-Terre(souet tipe of the island) the winds had also changing since 9am,and are blowing now from the SSOuest(190 to 200°) at 10 to 15mph.
Certainly the weather is coming in your direction...

[cycloneye]

Hi,cycloneye,be in alert...I think that the center of the system is somewhere between Antigua,and St Christopher.
In Guadeloupe,we have winds from the SSEst at the Raizet airport at 17mph,and here in Basse-Terre(souet tipe of the island) the winds had also changing since 9am,and are blowing now from the SSOuest(190 to 200°) at 10 to 15mph.
Certainly the weather is coming in your direction...

I think that is the MLC (Mid Level Circulation) that is behind the surface one that may be South of ST Croix.

[mike18xx]

This won't explode until at least tomorrow, if it does at all (and it probably won't).

Tomorrow it'll be getting shredded by Hispanola.

...not that it's showing any signs of concentrating at all. Yesterday there was at least a discernable axis of rotation.

[Sanibel]

Looking worse. An opening wave going into unfavorable conditions...

[flashflood]

Looking worse. An opening wave going into unfavorable conditions...

I agree, even 99L looked much better when it was in the same area.



Note: OT - this slow computer I am on at work cant handle ivanhaters avitar, is there anyway to turn it off so I can at least scroll.

[Frank2]

This is from the 2 p.m. Miami NWS local discussion:

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER THE
LEEWARD ISS. ALTHOUGH IT WAS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE EARLIER (FRI MORNING) IT NOW SHOWS A MORE RAGGED LOOK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE QUESTION IS WHAT EFFECT IF ANY WILL HAVE ON OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST? WELL SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRING IT TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWEST WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...TREATS THIS SYSTEM AS OPEN WAVE AND BRING IT TO FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WED THROUGH THU EVENING. WILL TEND TO GO CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...GIVEN THE RAGGED LOOK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT STILL WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

The mention of "no circulation with this system" is why I mentioned elsewhere on the board that the recon might be told to cancel the invest enroute.

Frank

[Frank2]

Not to get off-topic, but, Sanibel, would you know if the TWC boards have been closed down for an extended period? I've been trying to access them since Monday, and receive a "closed for maintenance" message each time.

Frank