92L Invest

[cycloneye]

12:00z Graphic.

[Frank2]

Re: Thunder's post

Yes, I'm well aware of that, but, often what you see (in this case from a satellite) will give a good indication of what is present.

True, there can be little convection but a vigorous circulation (as was the case with Andrew, when it looked very disorganzed on satellite, but had a vigorous circulation in the mid levels), but, without organized convection, even that will not last forever - one can't be without the other.

Frank

[Thunder44]

Re: Thunder44's post

Naysayers, no - commenting on what is there, yes.

Looking at this photo, does anyone see a "vigorous tropical wave"?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

There appears to be scattered strong convection in several areas, but, nothing else.

Frank

A wave is defined by it's surface wind signature not by convection. There are waves moving through the Atlantic that often don't have much convection and is scattered at best. This morning convection is deep and concentrated in a small area with a low pressure. I know it doesn't look "perfect" on satellite, but many developing TD's don't look very well at all. You can't judge just by satellite, you have to use surface obs as well, if they are any avaible in the area. And it too early to know where exactly this is going and to write it off.

Good points.

Thank you. You can also use radar from San Juan. You can see a spin on long-range loop. Look at that showers on top of the radar loop moving SW and the bottom moving NE. Look like it could be at least a broad surface circulation.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... tjua.shtml

[caribepr]

Not this one stormcenter. This one's pretty washed-out. There will be better systems to track a little later on in the season. I think that the fast pace so far this season has just about everyone thinking that every single system will develop (lol). 92L is good as gone, but didn't it have you going? It had me going for a while there. I've seen livelier floating pieces of logs that accidently became oceanic post septic. That's what 92L reminds me mostly of (lol). Logs.

I guess the phrase *washed-out* is a pun huh? Oh! You live in FLORIDA!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Frank2]

Yes, the SJU radar loops shows a very broad circulation southeast of Puerto Rico, but if this is true, then on it's present track the weak circulation will most likely move over Puerto Rico and Hispanola - not favorable for intensification.

Frank

[Derek Ortt]

at that range, thats almost certainly an MLC or an ULC

[Brent]

I just don't know... it doesn't look like a cyclone to me. Something weak may come of it, but I don't see a hurricane at all unless it really gets organized. Staying close to land isn't gonna help...

[Frank2]

Again, don't be surprised if the NHC cancels the invest for today - considering the models show the system east of the Bahamas in 24-48 hours, they may choose to wait until later tomorrow, when it's forecast to be north of Hispanola.

Frank

[Frank2]

Here's a good view of the wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and nothing substantial behind this wave at this time...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

Here's a good view of the wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and nothing substantial behind this wave at this time...

Frank

Why do you keep on picking on this wave?

Seriously though I think it will develop. Maybe not today but
later down the road. IMO

[EDR1222]

Earlier this morning it looked a little more organized. On satellite now, it just looks like a wave and nothing more.

[Frank2]

Haw - don't pick on the wave!

[DESTRUCTION5]

true MLC os still well east of St Thomas IMO...

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[bvigal]

It may be just a 'vigorous' wave right now, but I have a feeling someone down the road is going to have to reckon with this system. We can usually tell, when something comes by here, if it's going to turn into a storm elsewhere. We'll see how today goes, and give opinion on 92 after I've seen what she can throw us as she goes by.

[Derek Ortt]

disagree with the recon decision, mainly due to the shear that is likely to persist for at least the next 48 hours

[bvigal]

Ooh, thanks for that update, Luis!

Hiya Frank!!! Good to see you here!

[wxman57]

Nothing to fly into today, just a wave. Looks less organized today than yesterday. Thunderstorms are scattered all over. They'll have to consilidate in one location for 24 hours or so for development to occur. That may not happen for another day or two.

Here's a shot a few minutes old:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey3.gif">

[Brent]

I don't see any low-level center??? It's in the islands so it looks like there would be a West Wind somewhere.

[cycloneye]

They may have made the decision because it is near land areas or maybe NHC communicated with the NWS San Juan to coordinate a flight.