Interesting little blob off the Central American coast...

[Steve]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Appears to be some ridging and outflow from one of the pacific systems. Too early to do anything on this side of CA, but there appears to be a bit of a spin to the cloud-mass. Just a little pre-season whistle wetter.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Yes steve that area has a spin on it as a 1008 mb low there with a tropical wave so maybe and I enfatize maybe this may turn into more than a wave but time will tell.

[Steve]

If you check out the Goes-8 Water Vapor Loop, you'll see the ULL on the Pacific side (a very dry airmass for a ULL) diving SW, I think that's helping create some of the ridging off the 1008 low. If the ULL continues to cut SW, it could signal that we're heading back toward a trof splitting year on the Atlantic side. I haven't watched any weather all winter, so we might have been in this type of pattern all along or it could be an isolated occurrence. Hurricane seasons with trof-splits often tend to be more active in the Western Atlantic.

Steve

[ColdFront77]

Here's the Water Vapor Loop of the eastern Pacific: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

The low has to persist for at least 24-24-48 hours. Proximity to land could be a problem if the low begins to move. The models are showing the weakening of vertical wind shear over the area in a couple days. This is in response to a small pocket of the negative phase of the MJO moving into the region. So if there is any chance of formation, the low will have to persist and the model forecasts must verify. Btw, two offseason storms have never developed in the same year since they began keeping records.

[cycloneye]

Yeah Jason that would be a first.

[OtherHD]

I doubt it'll do anything in the Caribbean, but I wouldn't rule out possible EPAC development. The season starts in 4 days..