JB and 92L

[beachbum_al]

So when is the plane going to it?

I have a funny feeling about this storm. A feeling I don't like either. But that is my opinion.

[Brent]

So when is the plane going to it?

I have a funny feeling about this storm. A feeling I don't like either. But that is my opinion.

4pm EDT. Waste of fuel. Won't find anything... at worst this will be a weak rainmaker.

[dhweather]

So when is the plane going to it?

I have a funny feeling about this storm. A feeling I don't like either. But that is my opinion.

4pm EDT. Waste of fuel. Won't find anything... at worst this will be a weak rainmaker.

I wouldn't have sent recon into it, but that's me. I'm not paid to forecast
tropical cyclones.

[jax]

So when is the plane going to it?

I have a funny feeling about this storm. A feeling I don't like either. But that is my opinion.

4pm EDT. Waste of fuel. Won't find anything... at worst this will be a weak rainmaker.

recon is already on it's way... and i think you may be wrong, Brent...
I would not be surprised to see a TD before the days end...
JMHO

[Steve]

>>4pm EDT. Waste of fuel. Won't find anything... at worst this will be a weak rainmaker.

Come on dude. You called a pro outlet "irresponsible" for predicting future hits but never answered anyone back who questioned you. And now 92L at worst will be a weak rainmaker? That, my friend, is irresponsible (assuming you are talking about 92L and not some other entity). Watch and see how wrong you are come Monday /all I'm gonna say about it

Steve

[Brent]

>>4pm EDT. Waste of fuel. Won't find anything... at worst this will be a weak rainmaker.

Come on dude. You called a pro outlet "irresponsible" for predicting future hits but never answered anyone back who questioned you. And now 92L at worst will be a weak rainmaker? That, my friend, is irresponsible (assuming you are talking about 92L and not some other entity). Watch and see how wrong you are come Monday /all I'm gonna say about it

Steve

Well let's see... it's going to pass near or over 10,000 foot mountains tomorrow, then there's the unfavorable conditions and the fact that it has no LLC now. I'm usually very bullish with developing systems(especially ones already threatening land), but I'll be very surprised if much comes of this.

and about Accuweather... I don't really care. Most people don't rely on them for weather info anyway. I just think it's wrong...

[skysummit]

An image I wanted to share of the latest model plot:

[Brent]

It almost looks Jeanne-like... especially initially(over PR, skirts Hispanola, etc.).

[Steve]

>>Well let's see... it's going to pass near or over 10,000 foot mountains tomorrow, then there's the unfavorable conditions and the fact that it has no LLC now. I'm usually very bullish with developing systems(especially ones already threatening land), but I'll be very surprised if much comes of this.

If it's passing over 10,000' moutains and doens't have a low level center, how is that going to interrupt development? Those mountains won't affect something that doesn't exist (assuming it passes across Haiti & the Domincan Republic). They're not going to stop a wave in the sense that they could inhibit something feeding back with a low level center (e.g. depression, storm or hurricane). Now I know you usually are bullish on development, but the pronouncement that nothing would come from this appeared to be early IMHO. Just the same, if you end up right (and there is some global model support for 92L not to close off), you can bet I'll be back on this thread acknowledging your good call on the system.

>>and about Accuweather... I don't really care. Most people don't rely on them for weather info anyway. I just think it's wrong...

I don't either. But you said they were irresponsible and several posters prodded you on that comment. I don't have a problem with you thinking it's wrong for them to do it, I was just looking for an explanation as to why it was irresponsible. No hard feelings either way.

Steve

[Brent]

If it's passing over 10,000' moutains and doens't have a low level center, how is that going to interrupt development? Those mountains won't affect something that doesn't exist (assuming it passes across Haiti & the Domincan Republic). They're not going to stop a wave in the sense that they could inhibit something feeding back with a low level center (e.g. depression, storm or hurricane). Now I know you usually are bullish on development, but the pronouncement that nothing would come from this appeared to be early IMHO. Just the same, if you end up right (and there is some global model support for 92L not to close off), you can bet I'll be back on this thread acknowledging your good call on the system.

Well... I've already busted once. A few days ago I really thought this system was going to be a big one, so I could be wrong, but I just don't think so. I've seen a lot of Invests before and this is defintely one of the most poorly organized, especially an Invest where recon is going out.

[Nimbus]

This is a pretty broad wave and the northern half has been peeling off due to shear and dry SAL.
Recon may find something further south in the Caribbean.
There is high pressure west of 92L starting to build north up into the gulf.
Until we get a clear LLC there are too many possibilities to have much idea about a track.
Looked at the water vapor loop this afternoon to see if there were any emerging patterns that were nearing the foreseeable dew point.
The possibility of a LLC developing and tracking near or over Jamaica and west Cuba looks more and more likely to me.

[vbhoutex]

This is a pretty broad wave and the northern half has been peeling off due to shear and dry SAL.
Recon may find something further south in the Caribbean.
There is high pressure west of 92L starting to build north up into the gulf.
Until we get a clear LLC there are too many possibilities to have much idea about a track.
Looked at the water vapor loop this afternoon to see if there were any emerging patterns that were nearing the foreseeable dew point.
The possibility of a LLC developing and tracking near or over Jamaica and west Cuba looks more and more likely to me.

I was wondering about this possibility. The radar out of San Juan shows a possible circulation center SSW of St. Croix. I have to admit that I haven't checked out the sat pics yet though. Basically, do you think we may be looking at a splitting wave?

[Rainband]

I was looking at that too. Not one model has picked up on this. Maybe the runs this afternoon will hint something. I still say this thing has a long way to go both north and south. Even the visible doesn't show anything.

[Nimbus]

I was wondering about this possibility. The radar out of San Juan shows a possible circulation center SSW of St. Croix. I have to admit that I haven't checked out the sat pics yet though. Basically, do you think we may be looking at a splitting wave?

Could be a splitting wave although the persistent SAL and shearing of the northern part of the wave would inhibit any development.