92L Recon Reports

Anonymous · #21 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:08 pm

In 1999, recon went out to investigate a small wave. They found a 65 mph tropical storm. You never can be sure until recon.

beachbum_al · #22 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:15 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:In 1999, recon went out to investigate a small wave. They found a 65 mph tropical storm. You never can be sure until recon.

Good point! I would rather see them go out and find nothing then not go out and end up with a major disaster and many people dead. Storms can form very quickly.

Website · #23 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:21 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:In 1999, recon went out to investigate a small wave. They found a 65 mph tropical storm. You never can be sure until recon.

Big difference.

This one is affecting land right now... wouldn't there be some surface observations to back that up? There's not even a west wind anywhere!! Much less a tropical storm.

Derek Ortt · #24 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:24 pm

emily had such a well-defined circ that nobody could miss. Comparing this to Emily 1999 is the same as comparing an A student to a C student

Derek Ortt · #25 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:24 pm

there does appear to be many areas of small turning, but nothing closed that I can see. No location where I can fix the center

schmita · #26 Postby **schmita** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:25 pm

There really is absolutely nothing happening here and it's right over us according to sat pics. Some distant thunder rumbling. I actuallly see some blue skies now. Winds are gentle not fierce. I don't get it either.

gkrangers · #27 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:29 pm

schmita wrote:There really is absolutely nothing happening here and it's right over us according to sat pics. Some distant thunder rumbling. I actuallly see some blue skies now. Winds are gentle not fierce. I don't get it either.

Whats not to get? Winds are gentle with scattered convection in tropical waves..

Swimdude · #28 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:37 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:In 1999, recon went out to investigate a small wave. They found a 65 mph tropical storm. You never can be sure until recon.

True that. But then again, that's quite a rare case. I think it's possible we'll see a TD with recon's arrival. But not much more.

clfenwi · #29 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:46 pm

1738. 2408N 07605W 07589 0491 230 004 219 367 006 08176 0000000000

Plane is flying at a speed of 320 knots or so...so we are probably looking at it being in the vicinity of the presumed 'center' at 4:30 or so...

Anonymous · #30 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 12:47 pm

I don't expect a TD today, but down the road I do.

#31 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:01 pm

Just a wave, nothing more. There are plenty of surface observations in/around it and all show nothing but a wave. Recon won't be able to find an LLC because none exists. Maybe in 2-3 days, but not today. Anyone notice that all the pro mets are in agreement that there's nothing but a wave today? Only those that want it to develop seem to think there's anything there today.

If there was a circulation there, we'd all be able to see it clearly. Just step back and take an objective look. Don't look for little "swirls" here or there. Look for an actual clear center of circulation. There isn't one.

Anonymous · #32 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just a wave, nothing more. There are plenty of surface observations in/around it and all show nothing but a wave. Recon won't be able to find an LLC because none exists. Maybe in 2-3 days, but not today.

Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

#33 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:11 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Just a wave, nothing more. There are plenty of surface observations in/around it and all show nothing but a wave. Recon won't be able to find an LLC because none exists. Maybe in 2-3 days, but not today.

Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

sounds like a plan to me. got my support on that one.

<RICKY>

clfenwi · #34 Postby **clfenwi** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:13 pm

OB 03
Time: 1652Z
Position: 26.0 North // 80.0 West
Flight Level: 7590 meters
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -23/-23
Weather: Thunderstorm
400 Millibar Height: 7630 meters

URNT11 KNHC 291705
97779 16524 60260 80018 75900 99005 73739 /5763
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 03

#35 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:14 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

jax · #36 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:
Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

we'll shoot! we'll just all rely on your EXPERT opinion from now on....
no need to make other threads...

mike18xx · #37 Postby **mike18xx** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:17 pm

I don't think a plane has ever been sent into a worse-looking pile of garbage.

JamesFromMaine2 · #38 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:
Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

You might be right but I am going to wait and see what recon finds!

Website · #39 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:20 pm

mike18xx wrote:I don't think a plane has ever been sent into a worse-looking pile of garbage.

I don't think so either... I'm one of the biggest "wanting a storm to form" on this board and I don't see anything here.

Thunder44 · #40 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:
Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

Well, the plane is heading there anyway. So why don't you wait to see what they find, and confirm what you believe, instead of scolding us about it.

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