We are getting Very Close to a Center Now

[MWatkins]

Just looking at the latest burst of deep convection...and the low cloud lines...I think we are getting close to closing off a center right where the NHC initialized the 18Z track guidance...near 17.0N 64.5W...here is the still image but you can see a convective burst going straight up near the low cloud band stretching back to the SW of the burst...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

It may not be quite there but it's real real close.

MW

[Thunder44]

Yes, Mike I was just about to post about it.

[Derek Ortt]

it is very borderline right now. Have seen some low cloud tracks coming into the convection from the SSW.

However, I am not sure how long the center, if it does form, is going to last

[Agua]

Just looking at the latest burst of deep convection...and the low cloud lines...I think we are getting close to closing off a center right where the NHC initialized the 18Z track guidance...near 17.0N 64.5W...here is the still image but you can see a convective burst going straight up near the low cloud band stretching back to the SW of the burst...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

It may not be quite there but it's real real close.

MW

As always (or nearly so), great eye Mike.

[Frank2]

Here's part of the 2 p.m. Miami NWS local discussion:

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

I don't mean to challenge what you mention, but, running the loop, it's very hard to see any circulation at this time, let alone a closed center, and this is consistent with the above NWS remark.

Frank

[Stormcenter]

Just looking at the latest burst of deep convection...and the low cloud lines...I think we are getting close to closing off a center right where the NHC initialized the 18Z track guidance...near 17.0N 64.5W...here is the still image but you can see a convective burst going straight up near the low cloud band stretching back to the SW of the burst...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

It may not be quite there but it's real real close.

MW

Good observation.

[Derek Ortt]

<img src="http://www.nwhhc.com/images/caribinvest.gif" border=0 width=700 height=600>

Here is a garp image of that feature. Looks to be a possible center forming between the two convective blow-ups

[WeatherEmperor]

Since the aircraft has about another hour to get into the system, it could make some more progress to develop some more.

<RICKY>

[Hurricanehink]

OK, some say it is getting worse, some better. Which is it?!

[Thunder44]

Here's part of the 2 p.m. Miami NWS local discussion:

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

I don't mean to challenge what you mention, but, running the loop, it's very hard to see any circulation at this time, let alone a closed center, and this is consistent with the above NWS remark.

Frank

Well, that was from 2pm. We started noticing this in the past hour or so.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Mike Bingo look at long range radar near St Croix.

[WeatherEmperor]

OK, some say it is getting worse, some better. Which is it?!

i dunno. im just as confused as you are! lol

<RICKY>

[mike18xx]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

[dhweather]

Watching the San Juan radar using grlevel3 - there's a nice swirl now.
We may have a depression forming. Recon will tell us.

[cycloneye]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

You dont believe what the experienced met Mike Watkins is seeing nor what radar is showing?

[gkrangers]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

You dont believe what the experienced met Mike Watkins is seeing nor what radar is showing?

To be fair, its had plenty of circulations. It needs to pick one and sustain it. Its still not impressive by any stretch.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

You dont believe what the experienced met Mike Watkins is seeing nor what radar is showing?

Mike XX and Frank don't know that the Tropical WX god MW posted this message i guess...

[Lindaloo]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

Any weather logic to back this up? Thanks.

[jax]

This thing has junk spread across 15 degrees of longtitude. It's a big open wave, and tomorrow it'll have its guts ripped out by the Dominican Republic.

Any weather logic to back this up? Thanks.

he's implying that it's kind of obvious....

[Astro_man92]

THIS IS WEIRD!!! on my Google earth i have the NHC models showing and in that batch of clouds that you guys are talking about it is showing 2 invests it doesn't show what invest is what but I think that it is invest 92L and 93L.