92L Recon Reports

[wxman57]

Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

we'll shoot! we'll just all rely on your EXPERT opinion from now on....
no need to make other threads...

That would be fine, thanks!

[gkrangers]

Why don't we wait and see before we make conclusions.

I can make a conclusion because I've been doing this for 25 years and I have the same data the NHC does. I don't need a recon plane to tell me that there is nothing there but a wave. It's surrounded by dozens of surface observations - more surface data than the recon plane could provide.

we'll shoot! we'll just all rely on your EXPERT opinion from now on....
no need to make other threads...

That would be fine, thanks!

If you don't take the thoughts of a 25 year veteran professional seriously...then well...I don't know what to say.

[wxman57]

If you don't take the thoughts of a 25 year veteran professional seriously...then well...I don't know what to say.

No big deal. I used to be like a lot of the hurricane nuts here (being a hurricane nut myself). I wanted everything to develop, and the storms were always coming for me. I can't take sides any more. I have customers from the Caribbean, through Mexico, to Brownsville, to Maine. Doesn't matter where they go any more. Perhaps if they spent the last 6-7 weeks working 12-16 hours a day, including weekends with no overtime (and 4th of July weekend), they'd be thankful for a hurricane-free weekend. Maybe I'm -removed- this one NOT to develop, for a change.

[clfenwi]

000

SXXX50 KNHC 291959
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 32 KNHC
1949 1834N 06527W 01093 0070 080 020 194 192 020 01191 0000000000
1949. 1833N 06525W 00884 0055 079 021 206 202 021 00961 0000000000
1950 1833N 06524W 00698 0041 080 024 220 212 024 00761 0000000000
1950. 1833N 06522W 00646 0036 078 025 222 220 025 00704 0000000000
1951 1833N 06521W 00645 0035 077 025 220 220 026 00702 0000000000
1951. 1833N 06520W 00642 0035 080 023 218 218 024 00700 0000000000
1952 1832N 06519W 00643 0033 086 025 220 206 026 00699 0000000000
1952. 1831N 06518W 00530 0020 076 026 218 218 027 00573 0000000000
1953 1830N 06518W 00469 0012 077 026 228 226 027 00503 0000000000
1953. 1828N 06517W 00459 0012 076 026 220 220 027 00493 0000000000
1954 1827N 06516W 00460 0011 072 026 208 208 026 00492 0000000000
1954. 1825N 06516W 00461 0011 063 021 226 226 022 00494 0000000000
1955 1824N 06515W 00459 0012 062 023 230 230 025 00492 0000000000
1955. 1822N 06515W 00460 0011 063 028 236 224 028 00492 0000000000
1956 1821N 06514W 00460 0011 065 028 236 224 029 00492 0000000000
1956. 1820N 06513W 00460 0011 065 029 236 222 029 00493 0000000000
1957 1818N 06512W 00459 0011 071 028 240 214 028 00491 0000000000
1957. 1817N 06511W 00461 0010 075 026 240 218 026 00493 0000000000
1958 1816N 06510W 00460 0010 078 025 240 224 026 00492 0000000000
1958. 1815N 06510W 00459 0009 078 026 240 226 026 00491 0000000000


OK, plane is at operational altitude now... nice and low 490 meters (1600 feet)

[Derek Ortt]

have one quick q,

which col is wind direction again. I seem to have forgot that one

[clfenwi]

have one quick q,

which col is wind direction again. I seem to have forgot that one

first three digit group (so column six)

[clfenwi]

OB 10
Time: 2000Z
Position: 18.2 North // 65.1 West
Flight Level: 450 meters
FL Winds: 27 knots // 080
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 23/23
Weather: Rain
925 Millibar Height: 786 meters


URNT11 KNHC 292002
97779 20004 60182 65108 04500 08027 23238 /9786
40620
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 10

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292009
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 33 KNHC
1959 1814N 06508W 00458 0009 079 026 240 224 026 00489 0000000000
1959. 1813N 06507W 00461 0008 079 026 236 230 026 00491 0000000000
2000 1812N 06506W 00459 0009 082 025 230 228 027 00489 0000000100
2000. 1811N 06505W 00460 0008 075 028 220 220 029 00490 0000000100
2001 1810N 06504W 00460 0008 078 024 228 222 025 00490 0000000000
2001. 1809N 06503W 00458 0008 084 023 230 216 024 00488 0000000000
2002 1809N 06502W 00460 0008 079 024 232 214 026 00490 0000000000
2002. 1808N 06500W 00439 0009 078 029 236 218 030 00468 0000000000
2003 1808N 06459W 00427 0017 074 027 234 228 029 00453 0000000000
2003. 1807N 06458W 00410 0017 073 026 234 232 028 00437 0000000000
2004 1806N 06456W 00413 0016 073 028 236 234 028 00438 0000000000
2004. 1806N 06455W 00416 0016 072 028 236 230 029 00441 0000000000
2005 1805N 06454W 00412 0015 072 028 238 230 028 00437 0000000000
2005. 1805N 06453W 00413 0015 070 028 240 228 028 00438 0000000000
2006 1804N 06451W 00414 0015 066 027 236 230 027 00439 0000000000
2006. 1803N 06450W 00415 0016 064 024 236 236 025 00440 0000000000
2007 1803N 06449W 00414 0015 068 021 236 236 023 00439 0000000000
2007. 1802N 06447W 00414 0016 071 021 238 232 021 00439 0000000000
2008 1801N 06446W 00426 0016 073 019 234 234 019 00452 0000000000
2008. 1801N 06444W 00422 0018 076 017 234 234 017 00450 0000000000





[DESTRUCTION5]

OB 10
Time: 2000Z
Position: 18.2 North // 65.1 West
Flight Level: 450 meters
FL Winds: 27 knots // 080
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 23/23
Weather: Rain
925 Millibar Height: 786 meters


URNT11 KNHC 292002
97779 20004 60182 65108 04500 08027 23238 /9786
40620
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 10

27Kts...TD?

[wxman57]

OB 10
Time: 2000Z
Position: 18.2 North // 65.1 West
Flight Level: 450 meters
FL Winds: 27 knots // 080
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 23/23
Weather: Rain
925 Millibar Height: 786 meters


URNT11 KNHC 292002
97779 20004 60182 65108 04500 08027 23238 /9786
40620
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 10

27Kts...TD?

No, there are 27 kt easterly trade winds all across the tropics. Takes more than that, like a circulation center and convection. What you want to look for is a northwest or southwest wind. And they're at 1500 ft, so that wind needs to be reduced down to the surface. In the observation above, the surface wind is the "4" group at the very end: 40620

That means surface wind 060 degrees at 20 kts.

[clfenwi]

OB 10
Time: 2000Z
Position: 18.2 North // 65.1 West
Flight Level: 450 meters
FL Winds: 27 knots // 080
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 23/23
Weather: Rain
925 Millibar Height: 786 meters


URNT11 KNHC 292002
97779 20004 60182 65108 04500 08027 23238 /9786
40620
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 10

27Kts...TD?

As mentioned earlier, it is not necessarily wind speed that make a tropical depression, it is the presence of a closed circulation. So, what we are looking for are westerly winds on the south side of the presumed center (or other wind shifts from which a center of circulation could be inferred)...

[JTD]

So westerly winds are critical to the creation of any tropical cyclone? Sorry for the stupid question. Just trying to learn.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 07
Time transmitted: 2012Z
Position: 22.8 North // 73.8 West
Sea level Pressure: 1018 millibars
Surface Temperature/ Dewpoint Depression: 29.0/4.4
Surface winds: 12 knots // 095
1000 millibar height: 157 meters
1000 millibar temperature/DD: 27.6/3.7
1000 millibar winds: 12 knots // 090
925 millibar height: 844 meters
925 millibar temperature/DD: 22.2/3.2
925 millibar winds: 12 knots // 115
850 millibar height: 1577 meters
850 millibar temperature/DD: 19.4/8
850 millibar winds: 13 knots // 110
700 millibar height: 3219 meters
700 millibar temperature/DD: 10.0/8
700 millibar winds: 15 knots // 125

older ob sent out of sequence... posted for posterity's sake...

[Brent]

So westerly winds are critical to the creation of any tropical cyclone? Sorry for the stupid question. Just trying to learn.

A cyclone MUST have westerly winds south of the center or it's not a cyclone.

[dhweather]

So westerly winds are critical to the creation of any tropical cyclone? Sorry for the stupid question. Just trying to learn.

It's part of the true definition to a cyclone - you must have winds from

the west on the south side of the center
the east on the north side of the center
the north on the west side of the center
the south on the east side of the center

Does that help?

[clfenwi]

So westerly winds are critical to the creation of any tropical cyclone? Sorry for the stupid question. Just trying to learn.

This images

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

show the winds in the area where this system is located at. The 'flag' end of the wind barb indicates where the wind is coming from. So, you can see that the prevailing wind in the enviroment is from the east.

If you observe a wind that differs from that prevailing enviroment, then you can suggest the presence of a disturbed area. (E.g. a westerly wind in this area). If you have a closed center of circulation, then there will be a more or less easterly wind north of the center and a more or less westerly wind south of the center. (Look up Buys Ballot principle on Google for more on this idea).

Note that I didn't necessarily post the link to show a real-time (or even current) image, I just posted it because it was the handiest thing I had to show what the normal winds are in the region...

[deltadog03]

hey, its trying....i would say a TD is forming...W winds will come very soon

[JTD]

Thanks all. That answers my question

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292019
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 34 KNHC
2009 1800N 06442W 00418 0018 078 016 238 234 017 00446 0000000000
2009. 1759N 06441W 00420 0018 079 016 238 232 016 00447 0000000000
2010 1759N 06439W 00419 0019 085 016 236 234 016 00448 0000000000
2010. 1758N 06437W 00413 0019 087 017 238 234 017 00441 0000000000
2011 1757N 06435W 00419 0018 091 016 236 232 016 00447 0000000000
2011. 1756N 06434W 00419 0018 097 016 240 230 016 00446 0000000100
2012 1756N 06432W 00417 0018 101 017 240 228 017 00445 0000000100
2012. 1755N 06430W 00418 0018 103 016 238 234 017 00446 0000000000
2013 1755N 06428W 00419 0018 102 017 236 234 017 00447 0000000000
2013. 1754N 06427W 00418 0019 104 018 238 232 019 00446 0000000000
2014 1753N 06425W 00419 0018 105 019 238 228 019 00447 0000000000
2014. 1753N 06423W 00417 0018 112 018 240 226 018 00445 0000000000
2015 1752N 06421W 00420 0019 114 018 240 226 018 00448 0000000000
2015. 1751N 06420W 00418 0019 112 018 238 232 019 00447 0000000000
2016 1751N 06418W 00418 0020 113 018 238 234 019 00447 0000000000
2016. 1750N 06416W 00419 0020 114 020 238 234 021 00448 0000000000
2017 1749N 06415W 00418 0020 121 019 236 236 019 00447 0000000000
2017. 1749N 06413W 00397 0019 125 019 238 236 020 00425 0000000000
2018 1748N 06411W 00408 0020 128 018 236 236 019 00438 0000000000
2018. 1748N 06409W 00407 0021 130 018 236 236 018 00437 0000000000

[Derek Ortt]

there was NO QS pass from this morning, it missed and the descending one is from yesterday. We need to wait about 3-4 hours for tonights