92L Recon Reports

[gkrangers]

there was NO QS pass from this morning, it missed and the descending one is from yesterday. We need to wait about 3-4 hours for tonights

Can anyone explain how the passes work? Why do they only cover certain swaths?

[Derek Ortt]

polar orbiters pass very close to the earth's surfaces. This allows better resolution than the GOES, but allows for less viewing range

[clfenwi]

OB 11
Time: 2015Z
Position: 17.9 North // 64.4 West
Flight Level: 420 meters
FL Winds: 18 knots // 110
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 24/22
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars


URNT11 KNHC 292027
97779 20154 60179 64400 04200 11018 24228 /0013
41015
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 11

[Derek Ortt]

only finding a VERY WEAK wave is the recon. Wind shift so far is less than I would have expected

[clfenwi]

OB 12
Time: 2020Z
Position: 17.7 North // 64.0 West
Flight Level: 410 meters
FL Winds: 21 knots // 140
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 24/23
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars

URNT11 KNHC 292034
97779 20204 60177 64000 04100 14021 24238 /0013
41315
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 12



Hmm post 1013 for me had an SLP of 1013 ... spooky

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292036
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 35 KNHC
2019 1747N 06408W 00407 0021 134 019 236 236 020 00437 0000000000
2019. 1747N 06406W 00406 0021 133 022 236 230 022 00436 0000000000
2020 1746N 06404W 00407 0020 136 022 236 230 022 00437 0000000000
2020. 1745N 06403W 00407 0021 139 021 236 234 021 00438 0000000000
2021 1744N 06401W 00406 0021 143 020 236 236 020 00438 0000000000
2021. 1743N 06359W 00408 0023 146 019 236 220 019 00440 0000000000
2022 1741N 06359W 00410 0022 139 019 240 214 019 00442 0000000000
2022. 1740N 06359W 00407 0022 142 019 236 228 020 00439 0000000000
2023 1738N 06359W 00406 0021 140 018 236 234 018 00437 0000000000
2023. 1736N 06400W 00409 0022 143 019 228 228 022 00442 0000000100
2024 1734N 06400W 00404 0022 158 023 222 222 025 00436 0000000000
2024. 1733N 06400W 00406 0022 148 021 230 224 023 00438 0000000000
2025 1731N 06400W 00407 0022 141 019 234 220 019 00439 0000000000
2025. 1729N 06400W 00407 0022 145 016 230 222 017 00439 0000000000
2026 1727N 06400W 00407 0021 145 014 230 222 015 00437 0000000000
2026. 1725N 06400W 00407 0020 138 013 234 220 014 00437 0000000000
2027 1723N 06400W 00407 0020 153 014 232 212 014 00437 0000000000
2027. 1722N 06400W 00405 0021 162 015 228 208 015 00436 0000000000
2028 1720N 06400W 00408 0020 166 013 234 206 014 00438 0000000000
2028. 1718N 06401W 00406 0019 169 016 228 206 016 00435 0000000000

[Derek Ortt]

AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 36 KNHC
2029 1716N 06401W 00406 0018 166 016 226 204 016 00434 0000000000
2029. 1715N 06401W 00406 0017 166 014 230 200 015 00433 0000000000
2030 1713N 06401W 00407 0016 180 011 238 200 011 00433 0000000000
2030. 1711N 06401W 00408 0016 192 011 238 200 012 00433 0000000000
2031 1709N 06401W 00406 0015 <b>196</b> 011 234 202 012 00431 0000000000
2031. 1707N 06401W 00407 0015 183 010 230 198 010 00432 0000000000
2032 1705N 06401W 00406 0015 172 008 230 198 009 00431 0000000000
2032. 1704N 06403W 00408 0014 161 011 236 194 012 00432 0000000000
2033 1703N 06404W 00407 0015 161 010 238 194 010 00431 0000000000
2033. 1702N 06406W 00406 0015 153 013 236 202 015 00432 0000000000
2034 1701N 06408W 00407 0016 165 014 238 210 014 00432 0000000000
2034. 1700N 06409W 00405 0016 174 014 238 210 014 00431 0000000100
2035 1658N 06409W 00409 0016 182 013 238 214 013 00434 0000000000
2035. 1656N 06409W 00406 0015 177 013 240 206 013 00431 0000000000
2036 1654N 06409W 00407 0015 181 012 238 206 012 00432 0000000000
2036. 1652N 06409W 00407 0015 184 012 238 206 012 00432 0000000000
2037 1651N 06409W 00406 0015 180 010 238 206 011 00430 0000000000
2037. 1649N 06409W 00408 0016 185 009 234 212 010 00434 0000000000
2038 1647N 06409W 00406 0017 185 008 236 206 009 00432 0000000000
2038. 1645N 06409W 00408 0017 179 010 236 206 010 00435 0000000000

if the first group of winds is direction, we do have a SSW wind

[deltadog03]

well, its getting there...its really trying to get its act together...

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292049
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 37 KNHC
2039 1643N 06409W 00405 0018 178 010 240 202 011 00433 0000000000
2039. 1641N 06409W 00408 0018 172 009 238 208 009 00436 0000000000
2040 1640N 06409W 00406 0019 172 008 236 206 009 00434 0000000000
2040. 1638N 06410W 00408 0020 184 007 236 208 007 00437 0000000000
2041 1636N 06410W 00407 0020 190 009 238 212 010 00437 0000000000
2041. 1634N 06410W 00406 0020 193 009 236 216 009 00436 0000000000
2042 1632N 06410W 00409 0022 190 009 240 206 011 00441 0000000000
2042. 1630N 06410W 00401 0022 177 006 238 218 010 00433 0000000000
2043 1630N 06412W 00411 0022 136 006 232 224 006 00443 0000000000
2043. 1630N 06414W 00407 0022 133 006 232 228 007 00439 0000000000
2044 1630N 06416W 00406 0022 129 005 232 230 006 00438 0000000000
2044. 1630N 06418W 00407 0022 137 008 230 228 008 00439 0000000000
2045 1630N 06420W 00407 0022 144 008 236 214 009 00439 0000000000
2045. 1630N 06422W 00407 0022 154 009 240 208 010 00438 0000000100
2046 1630N 06424W 00408 0022 161 010 240 208 010 00439 0000000000
2046. 1630N 06426W 00406 0021 149 008 234 226 009 00437 0000000000
2047 1630N 06428W 00406 0021 146 007 230 230 007 00437 0000000000
2047. 1630N 06430W 00406 0021 160 006 230 228 007 00437 0000000000
2048 1629N 06432W 00407 0020 158 006 232 224 006 00437 0000000000
2048. 1629N 06434W 00407 0020 155 006 236 224 006 00437 0000000000

[Derek Ortt]

even with the SSW wind, it does not appear to have quite enough organization to warrant a TD classification

[WeatherEmperor]

even with the SSW wind, it does not appear to have quite enough organization to warrant a TD classification

yeah its gonna be a tough call.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if a vortex comes out soon.

[deltadog03]

i say NO right now...BUT, if this trend continues...i say YES, by manana

[WeatherEmperor]

Lets see if a vortex comes out soon.

how long will the hurricane hunters stay there?

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

They are not able to completely close it off yet. We won't see a vortex message til then.

[wxman57]

even with the SSW wind, it does not appear to have quite enough organization to warrant a TD classification

I don't know, Derek. As we saw with Gert (or Grace a few years back), a well-defined low-level circulation is no longer a requirement for the NHC to call a system a TD, nor are 35 kt sfc. winds a requirement for TS strength. Who knows what the NHC will do? They completely lack consistency. I think they'll immediately upgrade the wave to a Cat 2 hurricane with their standard reasoning "well, we couldn't find a circulation or TS-force winds anywhere, but we KNOW that they must be there somewhere, so we're calling it a hurricane".

[clfenwi]

OB 13
Time: 2030Z
Position: 17.2 North // 64.0 West
Flight Level: 410 meters
FL Winds: 12 knots // 200
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 24/20
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars

URNT11 KNHC 292056
97779 20304 60172 64000 04100 20012 24208 /0013
41815
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 13

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gert had the winds to be made a tropical storm. In plus it was geting its act together at landfall. So no it was not a worthless storm.

Two if they find that there is a west wind then they can make the choice to upgrade or hold off. That is there job.

[Derek Ortt]

LOL, LOL, LOL

Best comment of the day Wx

That said, this has a better circ than Grace did. Just looked at it again today on NRL... THAT WAS NOT A STORM. it was a bunch of cirrus with a couple of cumulus embedded within

[clfenwi]

OB 14
Time: 2041Z
Position: 16.5 North // 64.2 West
Flight Level: 410 meters
FL Winds: 5 knots
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 24/21
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars
Surface Winds: 5 knots

URNT11 KNHC 292057
97779 20414 60165 64200 04100 99005 24218 /0013
49905
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 14