92L Recon Reports

[hurricanedude]

5kts...WAHOO...I can walk faster than that

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292109
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 39 KNHC
2059 1622N 06515W 00406 0020 079 004 234 222 006 00435 0000000000
2059. 1621N 06517W 00409 0020 046 005 230 230 006 00439 0000000000
2100 1621N 06519W 00405 0020 032 003 230 230 003 00435 0000000000
2100. 1620N 06521W 00408 0020 016 004 230 230 007 00438 0000000000
2101 1619N 06523W 00405 0020 029 006 230 230 007 00435 0000000000
2101. 1619N 06525W 00409 0020 024 007 228 228 008 00438 0000000000
2102 1618N 06527W 00405 0019 014 007 228 228 008 00434 0000000000
2102. 1617N 06529W 00407 0019 020 007 228 228 008 00435 0000000000
2103 1617N 06531W 00407 0019 025 009 228 228 010 00436 0000000000
2103. 1616N 06532W 00407 0018 031 011 230 230 011 00434 0000000000
2104 1615N 06534W 00407 0017 035 011 230 230 012 00435 0000000000
2104. 1615N 06536W 00407 0017 039 011 230 230 012 00434 0000000000
2105 1614N 06538W 00408 0018 039 012 228 228 013 00435 0000000000
2105. 1613N 06540W 00408 0018 037 013 230 230 015 00436 0000000000
2106 1612N 06542W 00405 0018 043 015 230 230 015 00432 0000000000
2106. 1612N 06544W 00406 0018 045 012 230 230 012 00433 0000000000
2107 1612N 06546W 00411 0018 059 013 230 230 013 00439 0000000000
2107. 1614N 06548W 00407 0017 060 014 234 226 014 00434 0000000000
2108 1615N 06549W 00406 0016 077 016 226 226 018 00432 0000000000
2108. 1616N 06551W 00407 0017 078 019 228 228 020 00434 0000000100

[wxman57]

LOL, LOL, LOL

Best comment of the day Wx

That said, this has a better circ than Grace did. Just looked at it again today on NRL... THAT WAS NOT A STORM. it was a bunch of cirrus with a couple of cumulus embedded within

You're stretching, Derek. Sometimes there are "political upgrades", as was the case with Grace. It was causing TS-force wind and rain over the offshore lease areas, and it was probalby easier to explain it as a "tropical storm" to those folks than to try to explain that a tropical wave can produce tropical storm-force wind or higher.

I think this wave may well develop once it passes the Dominican Republic late Sunday or Monday. Thunderstorms are trying to consolidate along the leading edge of the wave in the NE Caribbean.

[Thunder44]

They found NNE winds.

[Ivanhater]

well i just got home and whatever it is now, it sure looks a whole lot better than when i left

[bvigal]

no depression found

[clfenwi]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT
YET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. SQUALLS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...COULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...
AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS NEAR
THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Thunder44]

So how long is this plane going to be flying tonight?

[clfenwi]

OB 15
Time: 2101Z
Position: 16.3 North // 65.4 West
Flight Level: 400 meters
FL Winds: 5 knots
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 23/23
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars
Surface winds: 10 knots // 360


URNT11 KNHC 292106
97779 21014 60163 65400 04000 99005 23238 /0013
43610
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 15
LARGE CELL JUST NORTH OF FLIGHT TRACK.



[clfenwi]

OB 16
Time: 2115Z
Position: 16.6 North // 66.1 West
Flight Level: 410 meters
FL Winds: 17 knots // 070
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 24/24
Weather: Rain
SLP: 1013 millibars
Surface Winds: 15 knots // 050

URNT11 KNHC 292119
97779 21154 60166 66118 04100 07017 24248 /0013
40515
RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 16

[gkrangers]

No circulation, but there IS 1 thunderstorm! Woohoo!

[clfenwi]

So how long is this plane going to be flying tonight?

According to the POD it will be in the vicinity of the system until 2300Z / 7 PM EDT.

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292130
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 41 KNHC
2120 1655N 06606W 02958 0167 087 009 100 078 010 03171 0000000100
2120. 1657N 06606W 03256 0192 094 010 086 034 011 03496 0000000000
2121 1658N 06606W 03539 0211 097 013 074 003 013 03798 0000000100
2121. 1700N 06607W 03810 0229 104 012 062 019 012 04088 0000000000
2122 1702N 06607W 04083 0249 097 011 048 063 011 04382 0000000000
2122. 1704N 06608W 04337 0236 094 012 034 089 012 04655 0000000000
2123 1705N 06608W 04643 0266 084 007 010 067 008 04993 0000000000
2123. 1707N 06609W 04858 0288 088 009 003 087 010 05230 0000000000
2124 1708N 06610W 05078 0303 088 009 017 095 010 05466 0000000000
2124. 1710N 06611W 05307 0318 070 012 031 125 012 05711 0000000000
2125 1711N 06612W 05506 0334 076 013 045 167 014 05926 0000000000
2125. 1713N 06613W 05700 0348 075 011 061 217 012 06136 0000000000
2126 1715N 06614W 05881 0361 077 009 077 241 011 06330 0000000000
2126. 1716N 06615W 06089 0375 045 005 095 253 006 06553 0000000000
2127 1718N 06616W 06257 0382 064 004 107 213 006 06729 0000000000
2127. 1719N 06617W 06421 0389 059 009 121 173 015 06903 0000000000
2128 1721N 06619W 06597 0401 036 007 137 175 011 07091 0000000000
2128. 1722N 06620W 06756 0410 048 008 145 259 009 07260 0000000000
2129 1724N 06621W 06886 0419 072 007 151 291 007 07400 0000000000
2129. 1726N 06622W 07023 0429 072 009 159 231 011 07547 0000000000

[Astro_man92]

what does this mean:

I think it came from invest 92L


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST
7/29/2005 12:00:00 PM UTC
7/29/2005 8:00:00 AM EDT

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 60.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 54.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



and this one was a mystery invest next to it:

7/29/2005 6:00:00 PM UTC
7/29/2005 2:00:00 PM EDT

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 64.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 59.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


can u define this!! please

[gkrangers]

Astroman..those are the initial conditions plotted for Invest 92L for use with certain computer models.

The first group of numbers is for the 12z run (7AM your time) and the second group was from the 18z run (1PM your time).

[Brent]

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 60.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 54.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Lat and Lon Current-Current Latitude and Longtitude
Lat and Lon in 12 hours is the next line

Direction Current and Speed Current and Direction and Speed in 12 hours in knots
Current Sustained Winds-25 kt(30 mph)
RMAXWD-Radius of Maximum Winds
CENPRS-Central Pressure

Etc...

[Astro_man92]

oh srry

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 292150
AF304 01FFA INVEST HDOB 43 KNHC
2140 1810N 06652W 07326 0448 097 008 181 269 009 07807 0000000000
2140. 1812N 06654W 07324 0444 084 009 179 219 012 07800 0000000000
2141 1814N 06656W 07328 0443 081 011 181 221 012 07804 0000000000
2141. 1816N 06657W 07334 0446 053 007 183 197 008 07813 0000000000
2142 1819N 06659W 07327 0445 072 010 181 195 014 07806 0000000000
2142. 1821N 06700W 07328 0446 070 016 181 227 016 07807 0000000000
2143 1823N 06702W 07329 0446 075 014 181 201 014 07808 0000000000
2143. 1826N 06704W 07328 0444 067 013 179 209 015 07806 0000000100
2144 1828N 06705W 07329 0445 064 014 183 195 017 07808 0000000000
2144. 1830N 06707W 07327 0446 058 011 181 221 013 07806 0000000000
2145 1832N 06709W 07330 0444 053 014 179 195 017 07807 0000000000
2145. 1834N 06712W 07328 0444 046 014 181 181 015 07806 0000000000
2146 1835N 06714W 07328 0444 038 013 187 209 014 07805 0000000000
2146. 1837N 06716W 07326 0444 047 013 183 235 013 07804 0000000000
2147 1839N 06718W 07331 0451 057 011 177 309 011 07887 0000000000
2147. 1840N 06721W 07323 0465 054 011 179 297 011 07885 0000000000
2148 1842N 06723W 07333 0460 049 011 181 299 011 07889 0000000000
2148. 1844N 06725W 07326 0459 049 011 177 287 012 07881 0000000000
2149 1846N 06728W 07330 0461 049 012 175 295 013 07887 0000000000
2149. 1847N 06730W 07328 0461 052 013 173 307 013 07886 0000000000

Looks like they are headed home as they have ascended to cruising altitude ...

[Thunder44]

What a waste of money.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What a waste of money.

I agree we had the surface obs/visible to tell us that this system was a tropical distrabance. But did not have the west wind to become a depression. If it doe's not become a depression durning the next 24 hours before moving into DR/Hati you can forget development of this system.