92L Invest

[hicksta]

how does jb have it going west into the gulf

[deltadog03]

the ridge the suppose to be building in...

[cycloneye]

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT
YET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. SQUALLS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...COULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...
AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS NEAR
THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[jax]

i think it odd that they didn't give a direction or forward speed...

[Brent]

If nothing forms before 11pm EDT tonight... 11pm will be the first time an advisory hasn't been issued on a tropical cyclone since July 3rd at 11am EDT... a full 26 1/2 days ago!!!

[bvigal]

Wow, that is a long time, even if it weren't July!!!

Here's local readings - note 4:45 and 5pm
11:00 83.8 °F / 28.8 °C 77.4 °F / 25.2 °C 29.99in / 1015.5hPa East 10mph / 16.1km/h 10mph / 16.1km/h 81% 0.00in / 0mm
11:15 86.4 °F / 30.2 °C 80.6 °F / 27.0 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa East 5mph / 8.0km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 83% 0.00in / 0mm
11:30 85.6 °F / 29.8 °C 81.7 °F / 27.6 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa ENE 6mph / 9.7km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 88% 0.00in / 0mm
11:45 87.1 °F / 30.6 °C 80.9 °F / 27.2 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa NE 6mph / 9.7km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 82% 0.00in / 0mm
12:00 86.7 °F / 30.4 °C 79.4 °F / 26.3 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa ENE 8mph / 12.9km/h 11mph / 17.7km/h 79% 0.00in / 0mm
12:15 87.1 °F / 30.6 °C 79.0 °F / 26.1 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa NE 12mph / 19.3km/h 16mph / 25.7km/h 77% 0.00in / 0mm
12:30 87.1 °F / 30.6 °C 79.4 °F / 26.3 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa ESE 11mph / 17.7km/h 15mph / 24.1km/h 78% 0.00in / 0mm
12:45 87.1 °F / 30.6 °C 78.6 °F / 25.9 °C 29.96in / 1014.4hPa NNE 12mph / 19.3km/h 14mph / 22.5km/h 76% 0.00in / 0mm
13:00 84.6 °F / 29.2 °C 80.3 °F / 26.8 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa ESE 9mph / 14.5km/h 15mph / 24.1km/h 87% 0.00in / 0mm
13:15 84.0 °F / 28.9 °C 81.8 °F / 27.7 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa ENE 8mph / 12.9km/h 15mph / 24.1km/h 93% 0.04in / 1mm
13:30 82.9 °F / 28.3 °C 80.4 °F / 26.9 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa East 16mph / 25.7km/h 19mph / 30.6km/h 92% 0.04in / 1mm
13:45 81.7 °F / 27.6 °C 80.8 °F / 27.1 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa ESE 8mph / 12.9km/h 17mph / 27.4km/h 97% 0.08in / 2mm
14:00 81.9 °F / 27.7 °C 80.3 °F / 26.8 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa NE 6mph / 9.7km/h 12mph / 19.3km/h 95% 0.08in / 2mm
14:15 82.8 °F / 28.2 °C 80.2 °F / 26.8 °C 29.93in / 1013.4hPa ENE 12mph / 19.3km/h 15mph / 24.1km/h 92% 0.08in / 2mm
14:30 84.2 °F / 29.0 °C 81.0 °F / 27.2 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa NNE 9mph / 14.5km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 90% 0.04in / 1mm
14:45 85.5 °F / 29.7 °C 80.8 °F / 27.1 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa NNW 6mph / 9.7km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 86% 0.04in / 1mm
15:00 86.4 °F / 30.2 °C 79.8 °F / 26.6 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa NNW 6mph / 9.7km/h 11mph / 17.7km/h 81% 0.04in / 1mm
15:15 81.7 °F / 27.6 °C 77.8 °F / 25.4 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa SW 7mph / 11.3km/h 19mph / 30.6km/h 88% 0.00in / 0mm
15:30 81.7 °F / 27.6 °C 79.5 °F / 26.4 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa South 9mph / 14.5km/h 14mph / 22.5km/h 93% 0.00in / 0mm
15:45 82.6 °F / 28.1 °C 80.7 °F / 27.1 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa ESE 3mph / 4.8km/h 12mph / 19.3km/h 94% 0.00in / 0mm
16:00 82.6 °F / 28.1 °C 81.0 °F / 27.2 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa ENE 6mph / 9.7km/h 6mph / 9.7km/h 95% 0.00in / 0mm
16:15 82.8 °F / 28.2 °C 80.9 °F / 27.2 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa ESE 12mph / 19.3km/h 12mph / 19.3km/h 94% 0.00in / 0mm
16:30 83.1 °F / 28.4 °C 80.6 °F / 27.0 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa ENE 13mph / 20.9km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 92% 0.00in / 0mm
16:45 83.1 °F / 28.4 °C 80.6 °F / 27.0 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa West 8mph / 12.9km/h 13mph / 20.9km/h 92% 0.00in / 0mm
17:00 82.9 °F / 28.3 °C 79.4 °F / 26.3 °C 29.87in / 1011.4hPa NNE 6mph / 9.7km/h 8mph / 12.9km/h 89% 0.00in / 0mm
17:15 83.1 °F / 28.4 °C 79.5 °F / 26.4 °C 29.90in / 1012.4hPa ESE 15mph / 24.1km/h 15mph / 24.1km/h 89% 0.00in / 0mm

[cycloneye]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC OCEAN ALONG FROM 10N66W TO 23N61W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS BETWEEN 16N-22N FROM PUERTO RICO EWD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE ATLC WATERS TO 55W. A 1013 MB LOW PRES
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N OR
JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN EARLIER AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATED THAT A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION DID NOT EXIST.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO THROUGH SAT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND THE
TURKS/CAICOS/S BAHAMAS EARLY SAT. INTEREST OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN...SW N ATLC...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The above from the 8:05 Discussion from TPC.

[EDR1222]

If nothing forms before 11pm EDT tonight... 11pm will be the first time an advisory hasn't been issued on a tropical cyclone since July 3rd at 11am EDT... a full 26 1/2 days ago!!!

Hard to believe we have gone through almost the whole month of July with advisories constantly being issued.

[Derek Ortt]

this has until 5 p.m. tomorrow before a full day goes by without advisories being issued. They have been issued on Franklin today (5 p.m. because NHC operates on UTC)

[Astro_man92]

This lull is agravatingly boring I wish something would hurry up and happen. I would be off doing other stuf but this is the only thing to do around here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm waiting to. But the fact is the broad cirualtion over this system is almost half over land. In look at this radar there is no core or anything to this. A little banding to the north of PR.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

[bvigal]

OK, I said I'd wait to see how the day went, then give my opinion. Here it is - this is a strong wave, lots of energy. We get waves all the time, and know a strong one when it goes by, and always remember the ones that turn into storms. I think it has crossed right over PR/VI tonight and is now in the Atlantic. It will not have to negotiate the mountains of DR/Haiti. The ULL seems to be hampering it somewhat, but I don't expect that to last long. All other conditions appear to be favorable, so SE U.S. & Bahamas need to keep an eye on this system.

[Steve H.]

Good observation - agree 100%. The wave and associated banding features are beginning to take shape in a direction that will take it just north of Puerto Rico. It will stay to the north of PR and DR/Haiti, and begin to get its act together late tomorrow. Cheers!!

[WeatherEmperor]

Good observation - agree 100%. The wave and associated banding features are beginning to take shape in a direction that will take it just north of Puerto Rico. It will stay to the north of PR and DR/Haiti, and begin to get its act together late tomorrow. Cheers!!

no way dude. lol. if that holds true that think could develop and head in our direction.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

hey guys have the 00Z models already come out by any chance? I still cant see them.

<RICKY>

[caribepr]

This lull is agravatingly boring :sleeping: I wish something would hurry up and happen. I would be off doing other stuf but this is the only thing to do around here.

Don't be bored!!! Find something to do away from the computer! Make something, help someone, cook a meal to surprise and please someone, read a book, create something, take a run around the block, or a long walk where you see something new, write someone a letter, draw a picture, sing a song, dance to some music, do a crossword, figure out a riddle, clean your closet, anything of a million somethings!...then come back and see what has changed.
Trust me...the weather will be here every day of your life for you to check on. It's the background music of life, important, but not everything (even if the worst caa-caa hits the fan, I stand by that statement, to get through the worst, you have to have a solid life going on to deal with it).

[WeatherEmperor]

This lull is agravatingly boring I wish something would hurry up and happen. I would be off doing other stuf but this is the only thing to do around here.

Don't be bored!!! Find something to do away from the computer! Make something, help someone, cook a meal to surprise and please someone, read a book, create something, take a run around the block, or a long walk where you see something new, write someone a letter, draw a picture, sing a song, dance to some music, do a crossword, figure out a riddle, clean your closet, anything of a million somethings!...then come back and see what has changed.
Trust me...the weather will be here every day of your life for you to check on. It's the background music of life, important, but not everything (even if the worst caa-caa hits the fan, I stand by that statement, to get through the worst, you have to have a solid life going on to deal with it).

lol. Ive got a better suggestion. Get a girlfriend

<RICKY>

[caribepr]

This lull is agravatingly boring I wish something would hurry up and happen. I would be off doing other stuf but this is the only thing to do around here.

Don't be bored!!! Find something to do away from the computer! Make something, help someone, cook a meal to surprise and please someone, read a book, create something, take a run around the block, or a long walk where you see something new, write someone a letter, draw a picture, sing a song, dance to some music, do a crossword, figure out a riddle, clean your closet, anything of a million somethings!...then come back and see what has changed.
Trust me...the weather will be here every day of your life for you to check on. It's the background music of life, important, but not everything (even if the worst caa-caa hits the fan, I stand by that statement, to get through the worst, you have to have a solid life going on to deal with it).

lol. Ive got a better suggestion. Get a girlfriend

<RICKY>

Well, yeah, there's THAT!! I was thinking more things to do on his own...oh never mind!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This lull is agravatingly boring I wish something would hurry up and happen. I would be off doing other stuf but this is the only thing to do around here.

Don't be bored!!! Find something to do away from the computer! Make something, help someone, cook a meal to surprise and please someone, read a book, create something, take a run around the block, or a long walk where you see something new, write someone a letter, draw a picture, sing a song, dance to some music, do a crossword, figure out a riddle, clean your closet, anything of a million somethings!...then come back and see what has changed.
Trust me...the weather will be here every day of your life for you to check on. It's the background music of life, important, but not everything (even if the worst caa-caa hits the fan, I stand by that statement, to get through the worst, you have to have a solid life going on to deal with it).

lol. Ive got a better suggestion. Get a girlfriend

<RICKY>

Well, yeah, there's THAT!! I was thinking more things to do on his own...oh never mind!

[Brent]

Well, yeah, there's THAT!! I was thinking more things to do on his own...oh never mind!