11:30 TWO: Recon Cancelled on 92L, Recon Scheduled for 93L

[Thunder44]

541
ABNT20 KNHC 301506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS WEATHER IS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS WELL
AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO HISPANIOLA.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25
MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[Thunder44]

760
NOUS42 KNHC 301500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 30 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/2000Z A. 01/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
C. 31/1430Z C. 01/0400Z
D. 12.0N 59.0W D. 13.0N 63.0W
E. 31/1900Z TO 01/0030Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

3. NOTE: TASKING ON SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO WAS CANX BY NHC

AT 30/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

[Brent]

Interesting.

[EDR1222]

I was noticing that area just east of the Windward Islands this morning, but I didn't realize that was 93L. Looks like it is becoming more concentrated.

[WeatherEmperor]

isnt it moving too fast for any significant development to occur?

<RICKY>

[Brent]

isnt it moving too fast for any significant development to occur?

<RICKY>

Ivan was moving that fast east of the islands when he became a Cat 4... Emily was too(she had slowed to 18-20 mph when she was almost a Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean)

[WeatherEmperor]

isnt it moving too fast for any significant development to occur?

<RICKY>

Ivan was moving that fast east of the islands when he became a Cat 4... Emily was too(she had slowed to 18-20 mph when she was almost a Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean)

no your missing my point. Derek Ort has mentioned this inside another thread that this 93L is gonna be facing some heavy wind shear once it enters the Carib and especially at this speed its gonna encounter those winds faster.

<RICKY>

[Nimbus]

The ULL in the northeast Bahamas has been shearing 92L to pieces still no LLC.
The upper air environment looks better for 93L especially if high pressure moves west with the storm.
Most of the models have 93L pegged as a low latitude storm heading for Mexico but the convection has been building north in the morning frames.
With two waves spread widely apart one is likely to miss the TUTT.

[Brent]

isnt it moving too fast for any significant development to occur?

<RICKY>

Ivan was moving that fast east of the islands when he became a Cat 4... Emily was too(she had slowed to 18-20 mph when she was almost a Cat 5 in the Western Caribbean)

no your missing my point. Derek Ort has mentioned this inside another thread that this 93L is gonna be facing some heavy wind shear once it enters the Carib and especially at this speed its gonna encounter those winds faster.

<RICKY>

Oh OK. You didn't mention that.

It could if it remains...

[Hurricaneman]

Shear will be a big problem with this one

[WindRunner]

Not until it hits the western carib, though, right?