93L making a comeback!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

93L making a comeback!

#1 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:17 am

Wind shift looks to be sharpening and convection is increasing.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... m_vis.html

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#2 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:43 am

But there isn't any circulation and there is still a good bit of shear over it. I wouldn't get my hopes up yet.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#3 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:44 am

Nice to see someone local on here, though
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:46 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050730 1200 050731 0000 050731 1200 050801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 52.0W 10.7N 55.0W 11.1N 58.1W 11.8N 61.1W
BAMM 10.3N 52.0W 10.6N 54.9W 11.1N 57.9W 11.8N 60.8W
A98E 10.3N 52.0W 10.4N 55.8W 10.7N 59.3W 11.4N 62.5W
LBAR 10.3N 52.0W 10.8N 55.6W 11.2N 59.4W 12.0N 63.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050801 1200 050802 1200 050803 1200 050804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 64.1W 14.1N 69.8W 15.3N 75.5W 16.4N 81.2W
BAMM 12.6N 63.5W 14.3N 68.3W 15.4N 73.1W 16.0N 78.6W
A98E 11.9N 65.2W 13.5N 69.9W 14.7N 74.0W 16.4N 78.5W
LBAR 12.6N 66.4W 14.5N 72.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 74KTS 81KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 74KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 52.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 48.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 44.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z model run for 93L as it makes a comeback.Let's watch it closely to see what it does.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#5 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:59 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#6 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:07 am

Wow Luis - that's a tight clustering of models guidnace!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

#7 Postby Buck » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:07 am

Well that track looks awfully familiar...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#8 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:29 am

With that track, it better organize now or else venezuela will tear it up and kill it
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#9 Postby Aquawind » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:36 am

Sure does look tight and 81kts even..

Paul
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:37 am

GFS obviously is not seeing the C Carib TUTT

82KT is almost impossible with all of the shear that it will encounter. And no, it does not look like the shear is going to go away any time soon
0 likes   
Top
Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

#11 Postby Derecho » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:45 am

Looks like there's a possible surface circ at the location of the 12Z NHC model init on vis sat; would like to get a few more pics in the loop as the sun rises.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#12 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:58 am

It is still getting better organized
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#13 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jul 30, 2005 12:02 pm

Hmmm....a Central America Storm?
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#14 Postby rockyman » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:07 pm

Is this the center with inflow?

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#15 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:11 pm

looks a lot better now than it did this morning, I doubt land interaction will be that big of a deal because this thing is blowing up
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tropicswatcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:53 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#16 Postby Tropicswatcher » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:12 pm

rockyman wrote:Is this the center with inflow?

Image

most likely, but is getting naked :roll:
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#17 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:12 pm

I've just been looking at that spot rockyman. It does look like there is a circulation near there.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#18 Postby skysummit » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:27 pm

I also see a slight rotation there. Maybe once it gets rid of that convection that's racing to the west, new convection will blow up near the "center".
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Astro_man92
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1493
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 1:26 am
Contact:
Contact Astro_man92

#19 Postby Astro_man92 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:02 pm

does it have an official LLC yet???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:03 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:does it have an official LLC yet???

I think so
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, hurricanes1234 and 304 guests