92L A Florida Threat? See Model Plots; convection increasing

[elysium]

Well, 92L now wants to head back into Haiti again. That'll kill it off. THis system is looking more and more like a dud. The sheer to the north that is showing up on WV imagery is trecherous looking. I think this past couple of hours or so has pretty much ended any hopes of 92L ever getting off the ground. This system is rapidly tanking backwards.

[Astro_man92]

here

[Brent]

:comment: here

LOL

I believe people I disagree with should be dealt with... that's all I will say. I've seen some people I disagree with here get banned for less obvious things.

[Astro_man92]

:comment: here

LOL

I believe people I disagree with should be dealt with... that's all I will say. I've seen some people I disagree with here get banned for less obvious things.

what do you mean by people I disagree with I thought they where people that always wished for something to happen and so they though it would

EDIT: I'd like to know what a wishcaster is so i don't become one if it is a bad thing

[clfenwi]

and what model is that based on?? GFS??

The forecast I linked to?

That is not a model forecast... that is a forecast prepared by an honest to goodness human being... questions about what it is based on would have to be directed to Martin Nelson of the Tropical Anlysis Forecasting branch...

I know what map that is....im saying i wonder what model they are basing that on??

Pick one... I haven't seen one that is selling the idea of a ridge building into Florida...

NAM is selling the idea of it developing into something east of the Bahamas. (1)

However, HPC is not buying the idea of it intensifying the way the NAM is depicting. (2)

The GFS moves the open wave northward east of the Bahamas and ocassionally closes a 1012 low. (3)

Canadian has been selling the idea of a developed system east of the Bahamas for awhile now. (4)

NOGAPS vaguely suggests an open wave and clearly depicts a greatly eroded ridge (5)

UKMET is similar (6)

UKMET and NOGAPS had once been showing support for the Candian's idea of a developing/developed system, but have since abandoned the diea.

(1) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072s.gif

(2) http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

(3) http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

(4)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

(5)
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=072

(6)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=072hr

[jabber]

I know one thing, just checked out the radar and it appears most of the FLA penn is getting punded with Thunder storms.

Yeah we had a pretty good T-Storm move through. We lost power for about 2 hours, and thats from a thunder storm. God helps us with a hurricane.

[Cookiely]

I know one thing, just checked out the radar and it appears most of the FLA penn is getting punded with Thunder storms.

Yeah we had a pretty good T-Storm move through. We lost power for about 2 hours, and thats from a thunder storm. God helps us with a hurricane.

My mother is presently thinking of getting under the bed. Its bad.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a low pressure area tracking west-northwest at 18.5/69.5. It should be over water by Monday. Its still worth watching.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Brent]

I know one thing, just checked out the radar and it appears most of the FLA penn is getting punded with Thunder storms.

Yeah we had a pretty good T-Storm move through. We lost power for about 2 hours, and thats from a thunder storm. God helps us with a hurricane.

My mother is presently thinking of getting under the bed. Its bad.

Yikes.

We got nailed Thursday and Friday by storms... lots of vivid frequent lightning, some of the heaviest rain you've ever seen, etc.

[elysium]

There is some rotation along the northern coastline of Hispaniola that, if it could get out into open water might have some chance. The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast. Just don't see much hope for this one Matt.

Bob Bob

[cinlfla]

The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast

Does anyone know when the sheer might relax? If that ull would move there may be a chance for 92l then again maybe not.

[Thunder44]

There is some rotation along the northern coastline of Hispaniola that, if it could get out into open water might have some chance. The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast. Just don't see much hope for this one Matt.

Bob Bob

You seem to be flipping back and forth on this wave. You say it's not going to be anything, then you call it a TD last night over Puerto Rico. Then you say it's not going to be anything.

[wxmann_91]

There is some rotation along the northern coastline of Hispaniola that, if it could get out into open water might have some chance. The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast. Just don't see much hope for this one Matt.

Bob Bob

You seem to be flipping back and forth on this wave. You say it's not going to be anything, then you call it a TD last night over Puerto Rico. Then you say it's not going to be anything.

Everybody's been flipping back and forth on this wave.

[Brent]

There is some rotation along the northern coastline of Hispaniola that, if it could get out into open water might have some chance. The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast. Just don't see much hope for this one Matt.

Bob Bob

You seem to be flipping back and forth on this wave. You say it's not going to be anything, then you call it a TD last night over Puerto Rico. Then you say it's not going to be anything.

LOL

[Brent]

There is some rotation along the northern coastline of Hispaniola that, if it could get out into open water might have some chance. The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast. Just don't see much hope for this one Matt.

Bob Bob

You seem to be flipping back and forth on this wave. You say it's not going to be anything, then you call it a TD last night over Puerto Rico. Then you say it's not going to be anything.

Everybody's been flipping back and forth on this wave.

Actually I haven't once it fizzled yesterday. I still think if there's any development it'll be a weak system at best, rain being the story.

[Ivanhater]

well most people just go with the latest trend...i think it will develop in or near the gulf..and i think 93 will develop, however if it does not do anything before the western caribbean, i still think it will in the gulf

[clfenwi]

The bad part is that we are getting too much sheer to the north, and it looks like the sheer isn't evacuating as forecast

Does anyone know when the sheer might relax? If that ull would move there may be a chance for 92l then again maybe not.

Keeping in mind how bad the models are with shear (because they have to get two forecasts correct to get the shear forecast right, here's what I've observed:

- 12Z NOGAPS seems to offer the rosiest scenario and clears the shear out overnight

- GFS isn't so quick, but still shows a low shear situation in the area by Monday morning.

- Canadian doesn't really clear it out like one would expect. How it manages to develop the system with that kind of shear nearbyis a bit of a mystery

(Ref: 850-200mb Shear forecasts at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs )

[elysium]

Assuming the sheer does finally evacuate, will the ridge be in position? I apologize for flipping back and forth on my position about this wave's prospects, but 92L keeps changing. Also, the sheer that is being forecast to evacuate is more persistant than indicated by any of the models.

Gee, sure hope this doesn't taint my credibility. As the wave changes, I've got to adjust. A lot of evidence though isn't there?

Bob Bob

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Judging by the models I put in the original post, in South and probably up the west coast of Florida there will be some very heavy rain this upcoming week. If this thing develops there could be strong gusty winds.

[elysium]

92L this hour seems to be holding together a little more zealously than had been throughout the day today. Lacking a lot however. We need for the sheer to dimish and for 92L to get into the open water to the north. Afterwards, if the sheer lessens, we may have something bona fide to track, albeit we won't be entirely out of the woods.

The GFS is ambiguous about developing this system into a storm. Assuming that we do in fact have a storm in the next 48 hrs or so, GFS is toddling back and forth on the positioning of the ridge., which is crucial if we are to expect full development from this already badly hampered system. There are a couple posts I've read here running parallels between 92L and the Great lLabor Day Hurricane of 1935. That would be a bit presumptuous in my estimation and I think it better to cool it a little in attempting to draw comparisons at this very early stage of the game. What we have is still only officially classified as a wave, and i think we need to temper our estimates of the future prospects this wave may or may not have by recognizing that it is still yet just a simple wave. That the Great 1935 Hurricane was also just a wave or at best a small tropical storm in its stage of development in this same location is just a coincidence at this point in time.

We cannot rule out that 92L may become something more formiddable over the next 24 hrs. based on the persistance in being able to hold together under quite trecherous conditions. Some consideration is due 92L in that respect, but The Great Labor Day Hurricane? I think we need to put 92L in the proper perspective. Much will depend on the positiioning of the ridge. GFS is waivering a little bit on that ridge positioning, for those who are drawing these type of optimistic comparisons as regards storm strength. We are still only in a 'wait and see' mode, minute by minute. Things are subject to radically change.