*NEW* Invest 93L Video Update with my thoughts

[Anonymous]

Paint

[stormandan28]

The question is does this just keep moving west and not bother anyone

[cycloneye]

The question is does this just keep moving west and not bother anyone

Well very soon it will bother some of the islands in the windwards.

[luvcanescarol]

Would you explain how 93L might be enhanced by the shearing of 92L? Is it a matter of 92L "paving the way" and making the path easier for 93L? Thanx.

[Derek Ortt]

factually inaccurate, Floyd


The UL extends down into the Caribbean. The disturbance would need to be near 5N to enhance development. Right now, it appears as if in about 36 hours, the core is going to encounter the strong UL SW winds. In the mean time, it has to contend with a low-level easterly wind surge. For this reason, minimal TS appears to be its maximum potential

[gkrangers]

factually inaccurate, Floyd


The UL extends down into the Caribbean. The disturbance would need to be near 5N to enhance development. Right now, it appears as if in about 36 hours, the core is going to encounter the strong UL SW winds. In the mean time, it has to contend with a low-level easterly wind surge. For this reason, minimal TS appears to be its maximum potential

Meteorologically sound logic...or paint graphics..sorry Derek, gonna have to go with the red and green lines.

[Anonymous]

Would you explain how 93L might be enhanced by the shearing of 92L? Is it a matter of 92L "paving the way" and making the path easier for 93L? Thanx.

Ok, the upper level low is currently shearing 92L like so:::


However, when 93L gets south, the outflow from 93L will be enhanced from the Upper Level Low:::

[luvcanescarol]

Thanx, I guess it's a Wait-and-See thing now.

[Anonymous]

factually inaccurate, Floyd


The UL extends down into the Caribbean. The disturbance would need to be near 5N to enhance development. Right now, it appears as if in about 36 hours, the core is going to encounter the strong UL SW winds. In the mean time, it has to contend with a low-level easterly wind surge. For this reason, minimal TS appears to be its maximum potential

First of all, my name is Mike. My iguana is Floyd LOL j/k Derek.

Secondly, the outflow jet should be rather impressive, and in part due to the upper level low. There is no TUTT, however you are correct on the ULL reaching into the Caribbean. Indeed, it may had a negative impact, but at this stage, it is far to early to tell the potential track/intensity of 93L beyond 3 days. However, I think this has a chance to get into the 50 kt range if the anticyclone develops over the top of it. As I have seen on the last model run of the GFS, they show an anticyclone over Puerto Rico in about 48 hours, however if there is a system to the south (93L) the anticyclone would be enhanced and you would see it further south, potentially over the system.

Time will tell.

[Hunter74]

You Da Man Mike... Thanks for another great update!! They are greatly appreciated..

[Derek Ortt]

however, even if there is an anti-cyclone, which GFS is likely over developing as it always does, the system must overcome the low-level easterly wind surge. Claudette with a perfect UL environment couldn't form a LLC until it had TS winds. This thing may ahve the same problem, but the UL winds likely wont be as favorable as they were with Caludette

[Anonymous]

We'll see what happens in a few days. In any case, certainly something to keep an eye on.

[Sanibel]

It looks like the Caribbean has reverted back to July-like conditions that may last into August...

[JimmyG]

I think it's important to remember that most of the maps that we study are two dimensional pictures of a dynamic, 3 dimensional world. The simple definition of shear is when winds at different levels in the atmosphere are blowing in different directions. The tropical systems we study are mostly surface level features. An anticyclone is simply a high pressure area. High pressure rotates in a clockwise fashion, where low pressure rotates counterclockwise. Hence the term "anticyclone." The ideal environment for tropical cyclone formation exists when an anticyclone(upper level high pressure) exists over the surface low pressure(the tropical system). Upper level low pressure systems in close proximity to tropical systems generally inhibit or slow development, especially when the ULL is positioned where it is blowing in opposite direction as the tropical system is moving. This is the situation with 92L, where a strong ULL is located northwest of 92L with winds blowing from the SW. On IR imagery you can see the cloud tops being sheared off to the northeast as the wave moves west. With developed cyclones, the position of upper level features is equally important. Developed systems need good outflow to strengthen. Outflow is basically the venting of the upper level of a developed tropical cyclone away from the system. I realize knowledge levels differ considerably here from lurking for a few weeks. I hope this post helps someone understand the dynamics of upper level patterns a little better. Tropical systems form when there is high ocean heat, low shear, and a surface low pressure area. Decreases in the strength of any one of these ingredients lessens the likelihood of development.

JimmyG

[Guest]

Is it possible that we could ever get through a thread without individuals dissecting the opinions of others. Heres a suggestion: If you have some knowledge to share that would help enlightened an individual or make an induividual aware of misinformation then send a personal message to that persons box and allow them to correct themself in the thread. We are very aware of certain individuals that like to toot their own horn and show off what they know, but hey once again we bring up that word again..... professionalism!

[Kennethb]

And of course we will await an see of 93L can be another to break the tradition of developing and moving through the dead zone.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The MJO has proven its self a big part of what makes the topics work. Research papers need to be looked at or made. Lets see if that MJO can get back into the Atlatnic.

[Guest]

The MJO has proven its self a big part of what makes the topics work. Research papers need to be looked at or made. Lets see if that MJO can get back into the Atlatnic.

Agree completely!

[clfenwi]

The MJO has proven its self a big part of what makes the topics work. Research papers need to be looked at or made. Lets see if that MJO can get back into the Atlatnic.

Explaining the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO:
Madden and Julian. 1971, 1972, 1994) has become a
‘‘holy grail’’ in the quest to understand tropical atmospheric
dynamics.

A new model of the Madden-Julian Oscillation David J Raymond


http://oregonstate.edu/~maloneye/sub/publish.html

lists some interesting sounding papers, especially Modulation of Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation ... a few papers regarding MJO and Pacific tropical cyclones as well...[/i]

[ncweatherwizard]

Ok....I"m going to actually break down and use paint...



I hope that shows up.
Anyway, that's what the shear is doing, very roughly. True, you're getting the flow from the ULL correct in the picture, but the shear is over the entire system. Low-level winds ahead of the system are slightly favorable, and are marginal to unfavorable at its current location. Upper level shear is pretty tough across the Caribbean, and I doubt that it's too soon to say that that shear will stick around for the greater part of the next week, with possibly a day or so relaxing. My paint job and 2 cents.

Scott