Typhoon 9w Matsa at WPAC

[cycloneye]

The first warning will be issued around 11 PM EDT or minutes earlier.The MJO favorable phase is at that basin and that is why we haved seen more activity in the past 2 weeks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We need to start looking at the MJO very seriously if this is what is causing the activety. Research papers need to be filed this next few years.

[cycloneye]

PEARL HARBOR HI/301422ZJUL2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 10.2N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 11.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.0N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 026 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 084 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 039 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
036 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
038 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 107 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
094 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.4N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 027 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
026 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 051 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
049 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
047 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 123 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 069 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
067 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
067 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 135.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 301422ZJUL2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 301430). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08W (WASHI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//



It is forecast to become a typhoon.While the atlantic is quiet let's track this cyclone.

[Jim Hughes]

We need to start looking at the MJO very seriously if this is what is causing the activity. Research papers need to be filed this next few years.

I have read some research papers out there on the MJO relationship with the tropics. I recall one years ago in reference to tropical systems forming in the GOM during certain MJO phases.

I follow it's phases all the time..almost daily

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html


Jim

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 11.1N 134.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 14.4N 131.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301422ZJUL2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 12.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 026 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.6N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 134.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z,
010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WASHI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[cycloneye]

31/0825 UTC 11.2N 134.0E T2.5/2.5 09W -- West Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

Upgraded at 12pm GMT.

T0509 (MATSA)

WTPQ21 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 11.7N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 14.9N 130.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 021200UTC 18.5N 127.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 031200UTC 22.4N 126.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301422ZJUL2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 133.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 133.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.1N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 026 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
026 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 21.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.8N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 133.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.3N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.9N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 132.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z,
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//

[cycloneye]

31/2025 UTC 12.5N 132.6E T3.0/3.0 MATSA -- West Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

Typhoon in 69 hours.

T0509 (MATSA)

WTPQ21 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 13.5N 132.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 18.1N 128.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 021800UTC 21.1N 125.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 031800UTC 24.6N 122.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =

[HurricaneBill]

Ouch, if it keeps on the current forecasted path, it might go right for Shanghai!

[cycloneye]

09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005
WTPN32 PGTW 010300
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---

[EDR1222]

Could be a serious problem for China if the track verifies.

[EDR1222]

Don't know how they handle all those landfalls over there.

Does anyone have any information on power grids and building structures along the coast. Are they able to withstand multiple hits from intense typhoons? Are they better prepared than over here in the United States?

[P.K.]

T0509 (MATSA)

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 13.7N 132.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 18.0N 128.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 030000UTC 20.8N 125.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 040000UTC 23.5N 124.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.1N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.7N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 29.5N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 131.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z,
012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like lotsa Matsa for China!