SAL Will Be the Story for This Season

[WeatherEmperor]

Does that also mean that development closer to hom in the GOM and Caribbean would also be halted?

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

I'm so sick of people on this board worrying about the SAL. I've heard about this for the last few years and it hasn't made the season any less active. Some people need to have a named storm for every week of the season for it to be active to them. And some do overrate the SAL as being a major inhibitor for the ENTIRE season. The SAL is not everywhere and there all the time.

[Anonymous]

Ok...I have had enough of this.

Hurricane Season 2005 is nowhere near over. Most season's don't even get very active until August...or September. For example...by Late September 2000, Helene/Isacc/Joyce and Keith all came around.

Everytime a system is cancelled or convection flares down, people who enjoy tracking hurricanes go pessimistic. "THE SEASONS OVER...SAL HAS IT ALL...BLAH BLAH BLAH." As someone who enjoys tracking hurricanes...I never get pessimistic. The Atlantic is in a lull. We have had one named storm die, and two more born in the last ten days. In 2004, between Charley dying on August 15th, and Frances forming on August 25th....we had a lull. People started "the season's over" stuff again, and look what happened.

I think the 2005 season has about 8-10 more named storms in store, including atleast 3-4 major hurricanes....two of which I think may make it to the US coast. Plus all the Tropical Storms and non-major hurricanes that make it. In anycase...this season has already been amazing. 7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes....one of which made landfall in Florida.

People are in the mindset that we are going into Halloween time...and the peak is past. We are not even into the peak yet, and things can change in an instant. For all we know...in two weeks we will be talking about how 93L became the infamous "HURRICANE HARVEY."

Hurricane Season 2005 is not a dud...and things will be very active.

[gboudx]

Good post FB. I've seen nearly the same exact trend on the Winter Weather board. People calling the winter season over when there is a lull in arctic cold fronts and blizzard conditions.

[WeatherEmperor]

Good point. I remember in 1998 that Bonnie didnt even form until August 19/20, 1998 and the season ended up with 14 named storms.

<RICKY>

[vacanechaser]

Ok...I have had enough of this.

Hurricane Season 2005 is nowhere near over. Most season's don't even get very active until August...or September. For example...by Late September 2000, Helene/Isacc/Joyce and Keith all came around.

Everytime a system is cancelled or convection flares down, people who enjoy tracking hurricanes go pessimistic. "THE SEASONS OVER...SAL HAS IT ALL...BLAH BLAH BLAH." As someone who enjoys tracking hurricanes...I never get pessimistic. The Atlantic is in a lull. We have had one named storm die, and two more born in the last ten days. In 2004, between Charley dying on August 15th, and Frances forming on August 25th....we had a lull. People started "the season's over" stuff again, and look what happened.

I think the 2005 season has about 8-10 more named storms in store, including atleast 3-4 major hurricanes....two of which I think may make it to the US coast. Plus all the Tropical Storms and non-major hurricanes that make it. In anycase...this season has already been amazing. 7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes....one of which made landfall in Florida.

People are in the mindset that we are going into Halloween time...and the peak is past. We are not even into the peak yet, and things can change in an instant. For all we know...in two weeks we will be talking about how 93L became the infamous "HURRICANE HARVEY."

Hurricane Season 2005 is not a dud...and things will be very active.

I agree... that is all boca has done so far is try and end the season before it starts. we go through this EVERY YEAR.. look at last year.. people were saying the season was dead before we hit august because we had no development.. then look what happened.. we just came through the busiest July on record... it cant continue through November.. It will shut down for awhile and then ramp back up... Just a matter of time..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derecho]

I'm sort of worried SAL will become the next "EWRC".....the new overused catchphrase.

Every wave, TS, or Hurricane that weakens at all will have it blamed on SAL (when it isn't being blamed on mythical EWRCs) whether there's any actual SAL near it or not.

SAL is perfectly normal, especially in July. It's just that people weren't familiar with the term till recently.

It's been very prevelent every July I can remember recently; and these were pretty much all years with active Augusts or active late Augusts and September, etc.

It's one of the reasons Julys are so much less active than Augusts in the Tropical Atlantic in the long term averages, I suspect.

The CIRA Genesis parameters for the Tropical Atlantic are currently above normal and have never really been below average a significant amount at any point this season.

[The Big Dog]

I don't think anybody, boca_chris included, is saying that the season is over or is a dud or whatever. Obviously, it's not a dud. However, I think some of you people, and you know who you are, are taking these kinds of posts personally because you want to see lots of storms.

All he's doing is offering his opinion that it might be a while before you see another train of storms. Some of you don't want to hear that. Looks like there's another big burst coming off Africa as we speak.

[Derek Ortt]

the SAL is always present. However, there are two aspects of the outbreak. What we are seeing is the typical action, which includes the low-level easterlies.

Later in the season, when we get many strong waves moving off of the coast, which will block any easterly surge, we then start seeing entrainment. This does not kill the storms, but canw eaken a cat 4 to a cat 2 for about 24 hours, before it begins to intensify once again. A classic example of this was Georges in 1998

[EDR1222]

With all the other ingrediants in place such as warm SST's, and the fact that the shear generally begins to relax more from Mid August on will IMO be able to overcome the SAL. Especially with the stronger larger waves that begin coming off the coast.

[cinlfla]

the SAL is always present

I was thinking that I was noticing the Sal more because the storms were coming earlier this year. I don't remember it being that big of an issue last year, regardless since it is always there and we have already had 7 named storms and we are just now at the end of July, I think this season is rockin regardless of Sal.

[WeatherEmperor]

SAL is perfectly normal to occur in the tropics. Relax. Remember in 1998 Bonnie didnt form until August 20 and the season ended up with 14 named systems?

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

these large outbreaks also do not last for the entire season, usually only for a couple of weeks.

We had an extremely favorable period early in July; thus, we had that stretch where every single wave formed. An outbreak has temporarily kept things in check, but by the end of Aug, the SAL may be long gone, and we could be back to seeing the waves develop with regularity.

In short, we are likely to have at least 8-10 more storms

[boca]

Hey vacanechaser I don't think Hurricane season is over I never said that and where in a dry MJO phase and that should end by mid August according to Luis.Just because storms aren't headng towards the SE coast of Florida doesn't mean I think the season over that just dumb.We'll all have threats and some recurvatures its a long season.

[boca]

The big dog thanks for backing me up.

[The Big Dog]

The big dog thanks for backing me up.

I think he was talking about boca_chris, not you. Too many bocas around here.

[boca]

I'm west Boca he's east.

[Steve]

BTTT

Being homeless and separated from my wife by 200 miles and my kids by 1500-200 miles is a much bigger story than SAL. Wassatagain?

Steve

[gatorcane]

SAL is very strong this year....doesn't matter about all the other factors that indicate an above average season...it's dominating the entire Atlantic for the forseeable future....we may have to wait until late Aug. or Septemeber until things pick up

.

I didn't say late in the season wouldn't be active. In addition most of the Atlantic has been capped due to MJO phases and SAL. Phillipe has been the only true CV storm. The title of this thread is a bit misleading through.

It should say:

SAL Will Be the Story for the CV Season

[Brent]

SAL cancel.



We're not even late in the season yet... Katrina was BEFORE the peak.