SAL

[hurricanetrack]

I am not concerned at all with SAL in terms of limiting the number of hurricanes. Here is where it could be bad for hurricane landfalls...and this is just my logical opinion- not much in the way of real meteorology here necessarily:

Let's say that SAL keeps otherwise strong tropical waves in check for a while longer after they have emerged from the COA. So- instead of developing near the Cape Verdes, these waves acquire the needed moisture and humid conditions at around 55W or so. Then, they are within a day of the Lesser Antilles and only 5 to 6 from the United States. Point is- they develop later and have less chance of connecting with any weakness in the subtropical ridge.

I am not the first who has tought of this, but is certainly worth condsidering if we are going to worry at all about the SAL.

The short of it is: the later they develop, the more chance they have of hitting some land area.

Now- I think based on the last several seasons when we have seen the same kind of SAL outbreaks that we can expect the atmosphere in the east Atlantic to become conditionally unstable soon enough. Right now- we are not supposed to see prolific tropical cyclone formation. That's a ramp we start up next month. If I am not mistaken, everything that has hit land this season developed west of 55W and maybe even 60W.

It's coming- SAL or not, I feel that with all of the variables in place the way they are- a huge climax to the season is on its way. At least we will know the outcome by December...

[Derek Ortt]

that may very well be the case. Dennis and Emily appeared as if they would develop farther east and move more to the north, but it may have been the SAL (especially with Emily) that didn't let them develop until they moved farther west, where they then ended up hitting land many times

[EDR1222]

Interestingly, the tracks from 1933 show storms developing closer to the Carribean as well. I am not sure how accurate the tracks are, as there might have been some storms form closer to the Cape Verde Islands than the tracks show.

It is still interesting how that year shows most storms forming closer to the islands, which led to more landfalls. Maybe the SAL was inhibiting development further east that year as well.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1933.asp

[Ivanhater]

not to mention will let the waters continue to heat up and not be disturbed, could come back to bite is

[cycloneye]

I am not concerned at all with SAL in terms of limiting the number of hurricanes. Here is where it could be bad for hurricane landfalls...and this is just my logical opinion- not much in the way of real meteorology here necessarily:

Let's say that SAL keeps otherwise strong tropical waves in check for a while longer after they have emerged from the COA. So- instead of developing near the Cape Verdes, these waves acquire the needed moisture and humid conditions at around 55W or so. Then, they are within a day of the Lesser Antilles and only 5 to 6 from the United States. Point is- they develop later and have less chance of connecting with any weakness in the subtropical ridge.

I am not the first who has tought of this, but is certainly worth condsidering if we are going to worry at all about the SAL.

The short of it is: the later they develop, the more chance they have of hitting some land area.

Now- I think based on the last several seasons when we have seen the same kind of SAL outbreaks that we can expect the atmosphere in the east Atlantic to become conditionally unstable soon enough. Right now- we are not supposed to see prolific tropical cyclone formation. That's a ramp we start up next month. If I am not mistaken, everything that has hit land this season developed west of 55W and maybe even 60W.

It's coming- SAL or not, I feel that with all of the variables in place the way they are- a huge climax to the season is on its way. At least we will know the outcome by December...

I can't disagree at all with those comments Mark.After this very short lull if you can call it that way things will break lose and Mark I think you will have plenty of traveling to do between one chasing to another in the next few months.

[Jim Cantore]

I dont think this "lull" is going to last long at all

Afterall tommorow is august 1st and thats when things start getting REAL intresting

[coriolis]

SAL = Saharan Air Layer?

[cycloneye]

SAL = Saharan Air Layer?

Yes ED that is.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

You want more about what it is you got it.

[WeatherEmperor]

SAL = Saharan Air Layer?

Dont worry about it. I had a very hard time getting that down. Trust me. Just ask Luis how many times I had to ask him about it.

<RICKY>

[coriolis]

thanks guys!

Luis, that site is just chock full of info. I'll study that site awhile before I ask any more questions!