Official 94L Invest Thread

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:52 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

For low SW of Azores.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #2 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:53 pm

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050731  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050731  1800   050801  0600   050801  1800   050802  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    27.6N  44.7W   29.0N  43.3W   31.3N  42.9W   32.9N  43.3W
  BAMM    27.6N  44.7W   29.1N  43.3W   31.5N  42.3W   33.6N  41.8W
  A98E    27.6N  44.7W   29.6N  43.1W   31.3N  41.6W   33.6N  41.9W
  LBAR    27.6N  44.7W   28.8N  43.5W   31.0N  42.6W   33.3N  42.0W
  SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050802  1800   050803  1800   050804  1800   050805  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    33.8N  44.3W   35.1N  45.6W   37.2N  42.4W   40.4N  38.2W
  BAMM    35.3N  42.2W   39.1N  42.9W   44.8N  40.3W   52.2N  32.6W
  A98E    35.5N  42.7W   40.5N  39.7W   47.2N  29.4W   50.9N   9.5W
  LBAR    35.3N  41.4W   38.6N  39.9W   42.1N  36.5W   47.1N  27.2W
  SHIP        39KTS          42KTS          40KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        39KTS          42KTS          40KTS          34KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  27.6N LONCUR =  44.7W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
  LATM12 =  26.7N LONM12 =  46.6W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  28.0N LONM24 =  48.0W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1022MB OUTRAD =  400NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:53 pm

Good we might have are first extratropical to subtropical event.

#4 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:54 pm

Looks to be going subtropical. It is a big system but will be just a name down for the year as it is plenty out to sea.

#5 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:54 pm

At least its gonna be something to track.

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:55 pm

Experts what do you think about this turning subtropical?

WindRunner · #7 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:57 pm

42 knot max

, oh well, at least it'll be here a few days

#8 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:58 pm

WindRunner wrote:42 knot max , oh well, at least it'll be here a few days

think of it this way. at least we are not gonna lose any sleep over this.

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 5:59 pm

Looking good!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:05 pm

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:21 pm

The models go to Europe.

#12 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:28 pm

Ah, more rain. Good.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:37 pm

This system has a LLC so I expect this to become subtropical storm Harvey. Reason is Harvey is not threating name. While that Eastern Caribbean system gets the I name.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

#14 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This system has a LLC so I expect this to become subtropical storm Harvey. Reason is Harvey is not threating name. While that Eastern Caribbean system gets the I name.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

How long do you think before this will become a subtropical storm?

<RICKY>

Derek Ortt · #15 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:42 pm

if convection continues to fire around the center, we could see the feature become a depression within the next 24-36 hours. This is the one most likely to develop the way I see things

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #16 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:43 pm

Deep convection is starting to form over the LLC/spin of the system. It is slowly becoming better defined. I would expect if it can develop a little more convection over the next 12 hours. Maybe around 5pm tomarrow. It is tracking to the east right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

rainstorm · #17 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:55 pm

interesting that the 2 systems that have formed in the atlantic were no threat to the united states. a trend?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #18 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 6:57 pm

No it is not a trend :roll:

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:17 pm

A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W MOVING
NNE 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

Brief mention of 94L at 8:05 TPC discussion.

mahicks · #20 Postby **mahicks** » Sun Jul 31, 2005 7:48 pm

Current IR sat Images look like this thing has great outflow and a very definite area of circulation.. It looks REALLY good to my amateur eyes!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
(choose 30 frames, and 100% quality)
or

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Official 94L Invest Thread

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