Pipeline of CV Storms to begin in about a week

[wxmann_91]

This is how bored I am. I'm looking at the 12Z GFS past 180 hr, just because I hope for a hurricane to be developing then, and guess what I see - a pipeline of CV storms. It starts around 180 hr and looking at it, this won't stop until at least 384 hr. Two of the potential storms look like they'll be hitting the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the D.R. , but they look like they'll curve away from the U.S.

Now, of course, the GFS this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, but I'm bored and this is something to get excited about. Plus, the GFS has actually performed pretty well this season.

Because the pics are large, I'll just give you the site: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_l.shtml

[storm4u]

yeah im actually amazed by the gfs this season it hasnt been to bad but the season has just started really so we shall see!!!

[WindRunner]

that's amazing.

After two amazingly strong extratropical lows off of New england, the model spins that first storm up and intensifies it up until landfall on cape cod - by 372 hours with three more storms still down in the tropics.

I'll assume numbers that far out are a little high for the storms, so the 986 at 384 could be way , but it looks pretty torn apart at that point. Well, it'll be interesting to see how it pans out at this range, but 8/16 doesn't look good for New England.

[vacanechaser]

This is how bored I am. I'm looking at the 12Z GFS past 180 hr, just because I hope for a hurricane to be developing then, and guess what I see - a pipeline of CV storms. It starts around 180 hr and looking at it, this won't stop until at least 384 hr. Two of the potential storms look like they'll be hitting the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the D.R. , but they look like they'll curve away from the U.S.

Now, of course, the GFS this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, but I'm bored and this is something to get excited about. Plus, the GFS has actually performed pretty well this season.

Because the pics are large, I'll just give you the site: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_l.shtml

Yea, I was looking at that too.. As far as being bord, I agree... we have had so much to watch and deal with so far, now it has slowed and we dont know what to do with ourselves.. as far as the comment goes on the GFS doing well this season, cant agree there... that model IMO has performed horribly most times... It has developed hurricanes that are not there and then has lost a few developing into storms and did not handle Dennis well... that is just my obs... we will see how well it does in about a week or so...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bvigal]

...Two of the potential storms look like they'll be hitting the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the D.R. , but they look like they'll curve away from the U.S.

Oh rats! Sure hated to see that model, and I sure hope it's wrong. No interstate highway here to get on and drive away...

[dhweather]

No model is worth much >72 hours, and is almost worthless >144 hours.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[WeatherEmperor]

No model is worth much >72 hours, and is almost worthless >144 hours.

I'll believe it when I see it.

So will I.

<RICKY>

[Lowpressure]

No model is worth much >72 hours, and is almost worthless >144 hours.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Agree, case in point is we have no hurricane currently north of PR as many models and mets predicted from 92L.

[EDR1222]

No model is worth much >72 hours, and is almost worthless >144 hours.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Agree, case in point is we have no hurricane currently north of PR as many models and mets predicted from 92L.

Also agreed.

[Frank2]

Interesting in the way that you say "you are hoping for a hurricane to form".

I can't help notice that you live in Southern California - would you be just as "hopeful" about earthquakes?

Frank

[wxcrazytwo]

Interesting in the way that you say "you are hoping for a hurricane to form".

I can't help notice that you live in Southern California - would you be just as "hopeful" about earthquakes?

Frank

Actually, Frank "yes", we do. I used to live in California, and I actually prayed for eq's to come, because I knew it would relieve stress underground (hopefully). It's just the way we humans are. WE LIVE FOR EXCITEMENT..

[linkerweather]

One thing to look at here with the GFS is this.....it will likely not hit a particular storm out that far, but it is swayed by climo to a degree and by mid August the CV train of waves is usually beginning. So, the GFS hinting at this is no surprise to me.

[WindRunner]

Good point. I always seem to remember a normal season gets going about 3rd week in August.

[WeatherEmperor]

Good point. I always seem to remember a normal season gets going about 3rd week in August.

Absolutely right. 1998 didnt get cranking until Aug 20th with the birth of Bonnie.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Something to watch IMO. Conditions could be getting favorable in that timeframe.

[gkrangers]

One thing to look at here with the GFS is this.....it will likely not hit a particular storm out that far, but it is swayed by climo to a degree and by mid August the CV train of waves is usually beginning. So, the GFS hinting at this is no surprise to me.

Yep, its got a good chance of being right about there being substantial waves atleast...but its like in the winter, looking at the 384HR frame and seeing an absolute monster noreaster...never seems to come true.

[Astro_man92]

This is how bored I am. I'm looking at the 12Z GFS past 180 hr, just because I hope for a hurricane to be developing then, and guess what I see - a pipeline of CV storms. It starts around 180 hr and looking at it, this won't stop until at least 384 hr. Two of the potential storms look like they'll be hitting the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the D.R. , but they look like they'll curve away from the U.S.

Now, of course, the GFS this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, but I'm bored and this is something to get excited about. Plus, the GFS has actually performed pretty well this season.

Because the pics are large, I'll just give you the site: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_l.shtml

what does GFS stand for ???????

[BayouVenteux]

what does GFS stand for ???????

Global Forecast System.

Although with regard to longer range forecasts, its detractors often refer to it by the title "Good for S***"

[WeatherEmperor]

what does GFS stand for ???????

Global Forecast System.

Although with regard to longer range forecasts, its detractors often refer to it by the title "Good for S***"

I dont get it. If the GFS is so horrible, how come alot of models require its output like LBAR, BAM models, GFDL, etc.

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

(FYI BTW this was taken from another forum.)