Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[Anonymous]

and the carribean is becoming VERY favorable for development...those maps prove it and the discussion earlier confirms that a ridge is building....

Yep...notice the anticyclone forming like I mentioned yesterday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Floydbuster, I'm waiting intill I see convectin fire over the center. That will tell if it is developing or not.

[Anonymous]

Floydbuster, I'm waiting intill I see convectin fire over the center. That will tell if it is developing or not.

No doubt

[Lowpressure]

This system "has the look" for the carib. Not saying anything about intensity, but I would bet on a hurricance in the NW Carib area in 3-4 days

[deltadog03]

I agree 110% mike, very good call....derek, with all due respect, don't bash anyone who dosn't go along with your thinking...

[deltadog03]

This system "has the look" for the carib. Not saying anything about intensity, but I would bet on a hurricance in the NW Carib area in 3-4 days

hey, good thinking...i could see this as a "system" in the central to NW carribean....models are trying to trend towards the GOM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The outflow looks good. But the convection is decreasing.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

[boca]

If the ridge is building why is 92L moving north and 94L curving out to sea.

[Derek Ortt]

I had no intent to bash anyone in the thread, merely to point out that he's more aggressive than the others (you want to hear real bashing, stop by my office when anyone blows a forecast... yes, I have experienced it myself)

[Anonymous]

I feel being aggressive is sometimes better. For example..

If a hurricane is 95 kt and the environment favors possible rapid intensification...the conservative side says 105 kt in 12 hours.

However, someone takes the liberal side of 115 kt in 12 hours.

Scenario #1: The system goes from 95 kt to 125 kt. (IE, CHARLEY) Even though the 115 kt forecast was too low, it was higher than the 105 kt forecast.

Scenario #2: The system goes from 95 kt to 100 kt. Even though the forecast of 115 kt was too high, it was better to be safe than sorry.

[Stormcenter]

I always called for a Cat 4 in the NW Caribbean...never backed away from that.

Tropical Storm Emily
Unofficial Forecast # 2-Mike Naso
Tuesday July 12, 2005 5pm Eastern
USE NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO

The reasoning behind this rather liberal forecast is due to the fact of Dennis bombing from a
Category One to a Category 4 in less than 24 hours last week, due to a very favorable upper level pattern.
With Emily having such a favorable upper level pattern, I would not be surprise to see such rapid increases
in intensity along the track through the Caribbean Sea. Should a landfall in Jamaica should not effect this
intensity forecast much, since Emily would move across the island in due time.

12 Hours: 11.9 N/ 55.1 W - 60 kt
24 Hours: 12.8 N/ 58.1 W - 70 kt
36 Hours: 13.5 N/ 61.2 W - 85 kt
48 Hours: 14.3 N/ 65.1 W - 95 kt
72 Hours: 15.7 N/ 71.1 W - 105 kt
96 Hours: 17.7 N/ 77.3 W - 115 kt
120 Hours: 20.1 N/ 83.0 W -115 kt

What is your BEST guess as to where it's headed if and when it makes it into the GOM?

[Anonymous]

Too far out. Right now...I'll say south of Western Cuba in 5 days.

[gk1]

When will you post your video??? I am looking forward to it!!

[Anonymous]

When will you post your video??? I am looking forward to it!!

No video today.

[cycloneye]

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM TODAY
REVEALED THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 18-24 HOURS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
61W-64W AS IT CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVES ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ABOVE THE WAVE
APPEARS TAKING ON MORE SYMMETRY INDICATING THAT THE WAVE IS
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE WAVE IS NOT PRESENTLY IN
THE TYPICAL FAVORABLE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR FURTHER
ORGANIZATION...BUT MAY ACQUIRE MORE ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WAVE...AS IT MOVES FURTHER W AND UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP MORE. THE WAVE
WILL BE ATTENDANT BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Ivanhater]

looks like things are a go for 93L

[WindRunner]

looks like things are a go for 93L

indeed! about time . . .

[Ivanhater]

the shape is fantastic, great outflow

[elysium]

This one doesn't look like much. Unless I'm missing something here, 93L looks like its falling apart a little. Not impressed with it, but things could change.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it doe's not start poping convection near the center by 2am est. Then I say the chances will start to fall quite fast.