Official 94L Invest Thread

[Coredesat]

Still needs to get some convection to fire near the center, but I could definitely see this developing into at least something subtropical.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right now the Experts think the center is near 28.3 north/44.8 west.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050801 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050801 0000 050801 1200 050802 0000 050802 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 28.3N 44.8W 29.6N 44.1W 31.2N 44.1W 32.1N 44.7W

BAMM 28.3N 44.8W 29.8N 44.3W 31.5N 44.2W 32.7N 44.4W

A98E 28.3N 44.8W 29.9N 44.4W 31.2N 43.3W 32.4N 41.8W

LBAR 28.3N 44.8W 29.8N 44.3W 31.9N 43.7W 34.0N 42.9W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050803 0000 050804 0000 050805 0000 050806 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 32.5N 45.3W 32.8N 46.1W 32.0N 46.4W 30.4N 46.9W

BAMM 33.5N 45.0W 35.0N 45.9W 37.4N 46.0W 42.5N 41.5W

A98E 33.7N 41.3W 34.9N 41.5W 37.9N 40.2W 41.0N 34.3W

LBAR 35.8N 42.2W 39.3N 39.9W 43.5N 35.1W 50.0N 21.7W

SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 35KTS 30KTS

DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 35KTS 30KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 60DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 27.2N LONM24 = 47.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1022MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[johngaltfla]

Intersting. Harvey is more appropriate for the Euros anyways. It sounds very British. Now back to the menacing names for us Floridians so we can hug our plywood.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The I name is next. In it is normally one of the most powerful storms of the season. So get that Plywood ready.

[johngaltfla]

The I name is next. In it is normally one of the most powerful storms of the season. So get that Plywood ready.

I'm pretty much resigned to it. The I storms always seem to be nasty and unpredictable. I just hope we don't see the O or P storms as the superstorms.

I sniff a Cat 5 this season and wonder if it will be an August or September event.

Now back to our regularly scheduled thread about the more refined Eurostorm...soon to be Harvey...

[abajan]

The I name is next. In it is normally one of the most powerful storms of the season. So get that Plywood ready.

Of course, the 'I' storms are normally one of the most powerful because they usually form during the 'meat' of the season.

I would expect this season to be an exception, since it's been active so early.

On another note, there goes that crazy UKMET model again!

[tailgater]

Current IR sat Images look like this thing has great outflow and a very definite area of circulation.. It looks REALLY good to my amateur eyes!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
(choose 30 frames, and 100% quality)
or

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The water vapor shows a better image of the outflow and there's an ULL almost on top of it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A few years ago a tropical system/subtropical system formed with a ull on top of it. It is not likely to get that strong that way. But it can happen.

[EDR1222]

interesting that the 2 systems that have formed in the atlantic were no threat to the united states. a trend?

That would be a nice trend Rainstorm! Hope it holds, but I am not holding my breath.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 010226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[boca]

Cycloneye when do you sleep, not that I'm complaining your on every update like clockwork many many thanks and cheers.

[Stormcenter]

KNHC 010226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

No worry. Will they name this if it develops into a subtropical cyclone?

[cycloneye]

KNHC 010226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

No worry. Will they name this if it develops into a subtropical cyclone?

Yes if it develops it will be named subtropical storm Harvey.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye when do you sleep, not that I'm complaining your on every update like clockwork many many thanks and cheers.

As a matter in fact I will go to sleep shortly after 11:30 PM and yes I sleep. Anyone who will be up for the 5:30 AM TWO post them divided as I am doing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is starting to form over LLC/Center. The quickscats shows winds of 30 to 35 knots. I expect just a little more convection then we will have a subtropical storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

cyclone, you are one brave man living where you do!!! I'd probably go crazy due to stress during Tropical Season. I don't see how you do it. I imagine you have quite a few tales to tell.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

T numbers are in!!!


01/0545 UTC 29.2N 43.6W ST1.5/1.5 90

[Coredesat]

T numbers are in!!!


01/0545 UTC 29.2N 43.6W ST1.5/1.5 90

I guess they meant 94, not 90.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is slowly but surely firing over the LLC. I think we will have a subtropical storm by 5pm.

[Thunder44]

5:30 TWO:

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.