MJO

[Guest]

MJO is electrical too.

That's how something so far away impacts cloud microphysics.

It's merely conductivity and dielectric constant changes by differing cloud cover/water content in and above the Indian Ocean which impact which way electrical energies will run chiefly from Africa. Mid Africa is the most struck place on earth . . .

[johngaltfla]

MJO is electrical too.

That's how something so far away impacts cloud microphysics.

It's merely conductivity and dielectric constant changes by differing cloud cover/water content in and above the Indian Ocean which impact which way electrical energies will run chiefly from Africa. Mid Africa is the most struck place on earth . . .

I believe my area, Western Florida is a close second...(don't quote me on that, but I've heard that mentioned before by the local wx gangs)

[Andrew92]

Derek is reminded of 2003 looking at this year and the MJO, and I agree. The pattern might be like 2003, and 2003 is an analog for this year.

But I am also reminded of mid-August 1995 a little bit. We only had two named storms form in the first 20 days of August, and they both came within about 24 hours (August 8 there was Felix, and the next day there was Gabrielle). And if it hadn't been for Felix lasting as long as he did, the tropics would have been just as boring as they are now. Gabrielle was a quick Mexico storm, ala Bret and Gert although stronger because it briefly stalled offshore.

Humberto, the next name down, didn't form until Felix was gone...and I kinda remember to about the very minute that Felix was gone too! And we know what soon happened.....

Also remember Felix formed a few days after Erin dissipated in 1995. That year was active, but not every day had activity. This year has been active, but not every day needs to have activity.

Enjoy the lull while it lasts....because I don't think it will last as long as some are thinking, and I base that opinion mostly on the MJO.

-Andrew92

Yes, but taking into account the SST's, weren't they cooler in 1993? Thus even if there are fewer storms this August, does not the potential for moreintense storms exist?????[/i]

I was referring to 1995, not 1993.

I don't remember the synoptic setup during Felix because I was only 11, but I don't doubt that we were in the unfavorable MJO after Gabrielle dissipated. Felix reached its peak intensity on August 12, the day after Gabrielle dissipated. After that, shear impacted the storm pretty much the rest of its life.

Then, during the next ten days before Humberto formed, while Felix never re-intensified, nothing else developed either. Again, if any met remembers the setup back in 1995, then help me if I'm on the right or wrong track. But I wonder if we were in the dry phase of MJO until August 22....because after Humberto formed, as we all know, Luis developed within a week (August 28).

As for cooler water temperatures, as you suggested, all I remember is that the water temperatures that year were above normal. I don't remember by how much, but that definitely fueled tropical cyclone activity. It was certainly another factor driving all the activity in late August of 1995.

Now is this year a similar setup to that year or more similar to 2003? We shall see with time..... when we re-enter the wet phase of the MJO.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

The daily update about what is going on with the MJO factor.

Today the green lines or wet phase of MJO already reached the Mexican and CentralAmerican coast meaning that The Atlantic will start to see more favorable enviroment from next weekend going into next week. But it takes a few days longer for all the basin to be in the favorable status so as I said at the first post of this thread by mid august we can see things become active coinciding with the start of the CV season.

[wxwatcher91]

so will this bout of SAL be the last for a while?

[WeatherEmperor]

Its nothing unusual at all. The past few hurricane seasons have had this before as well.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

Re: Derek Ott's post

Sorry for the delay in posting:

True, they both were just shy of hurricane status, though it still irks me that TWC and others continue to jump on the "record season" phrase - since they don't have anything else to report at this time, this will remain their mainstay until another system appears - they don't want the story to lose momentum, apparently.

Last night one of our local stations (WSVN) was making a fuss that they were "tracking four tropical waves" - of course it was more like one or two (they were counting the Azores low and what was just coming off Africa), but, they once again used this in conjunction with the "continued record season" statement - what clucks.

Frank

P.S. I'm hoping for a slow return of the "favorable" MJO phase to the Atlantic basin - slow enough that it may return after the peak of the CV season - what is your opinion?

[cycloneye]

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS... MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR
16N18W RIDGING WSW TO 16N30W WHERE IT MEETS AN INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG 8N39W TO 21N31W. W OF THE TROUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASED ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE CREATING A RATHER
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM...
COINCIDENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO) BEING IN THE AREA.

$$
BLAKE


Tonights discussion at 8:05 PM mentions the MJO factor.But as I said above the positive phase is comming into the Atlantic Basin in a week and a half to 2 weeks.

[mtm4319]

Will the green/positive area slip into the western Caribbean in time for 93L (if there's anything left of it by then)?

[cycloneye]

That wave is less defined now than earlier today with no circulation now.Unless it starts to organize in the Western Caribbean I dont see it developing.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis, are you sure of the timing of the more favorable MJO conditions in the Atlantic? You mentioned in about 2 weeks timeframe.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Luis, are you sure of the timing of the more favorable MJO conditions in the Atlantic? You mentioned in about 2 weeks timeframe.

<RICKY>

Yes more favorable MJO or positive by mid august.

[Sanibel]

The season is behaving like a high June/July - low peak season. Seasons with high early activity followed with low activity in the September peak acted like this.

My guess is we'll have an active peak season solely for the reason that EPAC is slow. Slow EPAC = active Atlantic. Well, maybe very high SST high Atlantic Oscillation seasons (AMO) are different and you can have low/low?

[WeatherEmperor]

I guess only time will tell. We are in August now and through September will be the peak so keep your guard up.

<RICKY>

[timeflow]

Interesting. I read about this in the discussion, then started reading up on this MJO. After a little reading I came back here to see if anyone noticed this in the discussion, and had more insights. Alas, Cycloneye already started the ball rolling. Excellent info, somewhat deflating for the time being.

What seems odd is that this pattern shifts east, or at least that's how it is being described here... moving in from the EPAC region and slowly filling in over the Atlantic basin. It makes sense now the comments on a busy early season / slow late season.

One thing I read, however, is that these are 30-60 day cycles. What I would like to see, and I don't know if it is available, is an animation of the last 2 months or so of this MJO chart.

It would be interesting to see this in relation to storm formation since the start of the season. One thing I'm thinking is that it wasn't so long ago that Dennis and Emily were in the picture... and if this MJO is tracking eastward, it most likely was in that area at the same time. Right now this negative phase covers the entire Atlantic basin... so if it is shifting east according to a 30-60 day oscillation, it could take 30-60 days before positive conditions reach all the way to Africa.

That said, I've just started reading up on this tonight, and Cycloneye indicates a two-week time-frame on improved conditions. I suppose that would mean increasingly favorable over the Gulf & Western Caribbean, and ultimately fully-improved MJO conditions for Cape Verde systems sometime in September.

Someone mentioned Charley formed quickly during a negative phase, and that was the worst of the lot IMO for last year.

Yeah, it's dull this way. But it's only August 1, hehe. We've been spoiled.

[Huckster]

Right now, the tropics are behaving as they should on August 1st. We're still primed for a lot of activity and IMO, a near record or record season. Think about this, that during the past week of very unfavorable atmospheric conditions, we still almost got two tropical depressions to form, invests 92 and 93. Once we get into the historically active part of August and into September and conditions get more favorable, I would not be at all surprised to see three or more active storms at once, just as has occurred in many of the most recent active seasons. Our previous seven named storms should just be gravy on top of the coming above normal activity.

[Derek Ortt]

Frank,

the season in terms of numbers of hurricanes is very similar to 1996. It's just that Cesar didn't intensify into a cat 3 as was feared, or els the comparison to that year would be even more noticible.

The only thing record about this season is the 2 cat 4's. Everything els (and named storms do not count worth diddly when verifying seasonal forecasts, just the number of canes) is only slightly above average

[JTD]

I would say we won't see T.D. 8 until August 20th at the earliest.

[Jim Hughes]

Yes, you are correct on both issues, but it's interesting to note that the Atlantic, Cariibbean and Gulf have had either powerful or weak systems so far this season - a 2:7 or 5:7 ratio. The media seems to enjoy the "record season so far" way of reporting (which only scares most people, incidentially), but, the reality is that so far we've had just 2 systems that were truly significant.

Frank

You are right Frank and I was mentioning this same thing a while back in the TWC forum and some recent e-mail discussions. The ratio is much different then last years and we would have to see almost all hurricanes from here on out to reach some people's pre seasonal numbers.

A bold forecast of ten hurricanes would need 35 named storms with this current ratio. I think you may also be right about the peak time. Things may get less favorable during the usual active time and we may be getting ready to see Act 2 of a three part play but the third part may be rather small...storm total wise.... compared to one and two.

[Derek Ortt]

I would be surprised if we revert back to favorable by mid August.

I heard soemthing yesterday at the daily HRD briefing regarding the MJO. They were speculating that it was real active in July because it was negative at the date line. That descending air there led to la nina-like conditions in the Atl, but now it is positive, which leads to el ninoish. And this last phase did not exactly set any speed records in changing.
We may be in the unfavorable phase until the end of the month or early next if this is the case. Still could get a couple of storms during this time, so everyone does need to keep watch as it only takes one