2005 Member Projections (re: Cycloneye's Forecast Thread)

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Ixolib
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2005 Member Projections (re: Cycloneye's Forecast Thread)

#1 Postby Ixolib » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:15 am

Just a quick look back at what many of us projected - during the time period of March 15 through May 31 - for the '05 season. Here are a few statistics based on the 120 S2K Members who participated and provided their numbers in Cycloneye's thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 714#889714

All figures are rounded
Percentage who projected 5 hurricanes: 1.7
Percentage who projected 6 hurricanes: 7.5
Percentage who projected 7 hurricanes: 23.3
Percentage who projected 8 hurricanes: 29.2
Percentage who projected 9 hurricanes: 24.1
Percentage who projected 10 hurricanes: 11.7
Percentage who projected 11 hurricanes: 0.8

Percentage who projected 9 tropical storms: 0.8
Percentage who projected 10 tropical storms: 0.8
Percentage who projected 11 tropical storms: 5.0
Percentage who projected 12 tropical storms: 14.2
Percentage who projected 13 tropical storms: 19.2
Percentage who projected 14 tropical storms: 25.0
Percentage who projected 15 tropical storms: 19.2
Percentage who projected 16 tropical storms: 10.0
Percentage who projected 17 tropical storms: 2.5
Percentage who projected 18 tropical storms: 0.8
Percentage who projected 19 tropical storms: 0.8

Percentage who projected 2 majors: 3.3
Percentage who projected 3 majors: 24.2
Percentage who projected 4 majors: 40.0
Percentage who projected 5 majors: 5.8
Percentage who projected 6 majors: 23.3
Percentage who projected 7 majors: 5.8

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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:03 am

Thanks for posting the poll although I have it moved to contest forum because if I leave it here it would go well down the pages.Let's see what occurs the rest of the way.
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#3 Postby Ixolib » Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Thanks for posting the poll although I have it moved to contest forum because if I leave it here it would go well down the pages.Let's see what occurs the rest of the way.


Should be interesting, too, to see how some of these projections match up with Dr. Gray's update on the 5th...
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#4 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:19 am

My prediction is already in trouble... over half the named storms, and half the majors already and it's only August 1st. :eek:
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