I know this is not good news for us hurricane trackers but
for those already affected but hurricanes the last few years it's music to their ears.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 01, 2005
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized shower activity persists between the Bahamas and
Bermuda...however...upper-level conditions are currently
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.Shower activity with the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea
has diminished...and no significant development of this system is
expected.
The large non-tropical low pressure system located about 1150 miles
southwest of the Azores Islands is showing no signs of acquiring
tropical characteristics. No significant development of this
system is expected as it moves slowly northward over the next dayor so.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.Forecaster Franklin
$$
Boring but good 10:30am outlook
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Boring but good 10:30am outlook
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Rainband
000
FXUS62 KTBW 011700
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A MORE STABLE MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. WEAK
RIDGING EAST OF FL WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL
VARIABLE FLOW WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
LATEST GFS/ETA RUNS ARE DEPICTING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE... AND EVENTUALLY A TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF A CYCLONE FORMS IT SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM FL AND
THE MAINLAND US. HOWEVER...IF NO CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE
THEN THE WAVE FEATURE COULD MOVE MORE DUE WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO ONE OR TWO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
FXUS62 KTBW 011700
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A MORE STABLE MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. WEAK
RIDGING EAST OF FL WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL
VARIABLE FLOW WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
LATEST GFS/ETA RUNS ARE DEPICTING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE... AND EVENTUALLY A TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO
SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF A CYCLONE FORMS IT SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM FL AND
THE MAINLAND US. HOWEVER...IF NO CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE
THEN THE WAVE FEATURE COULD MOVE MORE DUE WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
MODEL RUNS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO ONE OR TWO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
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