so was Ivan really a Cat 3? at landfall

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HurricaneBill
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#121 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:15 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Andrew produced a 16.9 ft storm surge, one of the highest eevr produced in the USA. That is not well known because the worst of the surge did not hit the center of Miami (though Coconut Grove had about 10, with significant damage


Wasn't the 16.9 ft mark recorded at the Burger King Headquarters? I heard they were completely gutted.

I guess Andrew had it his way.
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#122 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:17 pm

yeah, 16.9 ft was at Burger King

Andrew must have liked McDonalds or Wendy's, lol
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#123 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:36 pm

Kessler AFB reported a wind gust of 220 mph during Camille before the anemometer and everything else there blew away. That has been documented and disputed both so I can't verify it one way or another.

I was in Pensacola(actually Gulf Breeze, during Camille. She was not what I consider a compact storm. We had sustained winds in P'cola, if I am remembering correctly, of 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph. I really don't know where to go to verify that. I also know what I witnessed during and after Camille. Our maple type trees in our yard were stripped of their leaves as were many others. I saw homes 2 miles inland that were blown off their foundations in Pass Christian, in the aftermath. I saw entire forests laid flat, at least 60 miles inland(since you couldn't get along the coast for almost a month) and saw huge steel signs laid down like Spaghetti in the same area the forests were laid flat. I have no doubt that Camilles winds were at least 190 mph at landfall, but like everyone else here I have no way of proving it. We had an 8' storms surge in Gulf Breeze, and from our vantage point facing Santa Rosa Island(P'cola Beach) we watched 40' waves washing clear across the island. Just reporting what I saw and experienced. BTW, can someone post a really good place to go to do verification of winds, etc. for any storm?
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#124 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:41 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Andrew produced a 16.9 ft storm surge, one of the highest eevr produced in the USA. That is not well known because the worst of the surge did not hit the center of Miami (though Coconut Grove had about 10, with significant damage


Wasn't the 16.9 ft mark recorded at the Burger King Headquarters? I heard they were completely gutted.

I guess Andrew had it his way.


LOL yes indeed. I heard about some pretty decent surge in the Coconut Grove area, but I never got over there by bike to take a look, because those roads were so impassable at first.

The area by the former BK headquarters was not a very populated part of the coast, by Miami standards. Plus, I think that with all the wind damage from Andrew, the surge was the least of peoples problems. Flooding in general did not seem to be a big problem. In fact, I actually remember little rain, at least by typical hurricane standards.
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#125 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:50 pm

I've heard that Homestead only received about 2 inches of rainfall from Andrew. Barely enough to do anything to last years fires with the wind Andrew would have brought
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#126 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:06 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Kessler AFB reported a wind gust of 220 mph during Camille before the anemometer and everything else there blew away. That has been documented and disputed both so I can't verify it one way or another.

I was in Pensacola(actually Gulf Breeze, during Camille. She was not what I consider a compact storm. We had sustained winds in P'cola, if I am remembering correctly, of 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph. I really don't know where to go to verify that. I also know what I witnessed during and after Camille. Our maple type trees in our yard were stripped of their leaves as were many others. I saw homes 2 miles inland that were blown off their foundations in Pass Christian, in the aftermath. I saw entire forests laid flat, at least 60 miles inland(since you couldn't get along the coast for almost a month) and saw huge steel signs laid down like Spaghetti in the same area the forests were laid flat. I have no doubt that Camilles winds were at least 190 mph at landfall, but like everyone else here I have no way of proving it. We had an 8' storms surge in Gulf Breeze, and from our vantage point facing Santa Rosa Island(P'cola Beach) we watched 40' waves washing clear across the island. Just reporting what I saw and experienced. BTW, can someone post a really good place to go to do verification of winds, etc. for any storm?


See your account is what I have heard most about Camille, that it was a large storm more similar to Ivan than a hurricane Andrew. If it was really that large than there is absolutely no way that Camille had 200 mph winds or even 190 mph winds, as the big hurricanes Gilbert and Allen coulnt reach 200 with lower pressures. It would have had to have been Charley's size to produce 200 mph winds at that pressure.

As for damage, sorry I have yet to see wind damage from Camille like that of Andrew. The vegetation and trees I have seen in the Camille damage photos show trees that largely in fact have their vegetation with them....

Couple of examples...

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/n ... a00406.jpg
Biloxi - Trees still have their vegetation for the most part.

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/n ... a02406.jpg
Gulfport - Lots of trees still have their vegetation but then again lots are stripped bare and flattened....I believe that building was destroyed by a combo of winds and surge.

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/n ... a02400.jpg
MS Coast - this is a famous one I believe of the condo or apartment that got leveled? Again this is surge damage obviously as the lone survivor in the building reported floating out of the second story before the building fell....Again notice that LOTS of the trees still have vegetation.



Now, lets see some Andrew photos.

http://flare.creighton.edu/martinelli/a ... andrew.jpg
Speaks for itself, pure wind damage and nothing left. All trees flattened and no vegetation can be seen on any left standing. This looks to be a mobile home park I think...so yes the buildings werent that strong.

http://www.lima.ohio-state.edu/academic ... damage.JPG
No foilage left...trees completely stripped bare.

http://dept.kent.edu/geography/Dymon/andrew%203.jpg
Sparse Vegetation left on trees...but homes seem to have fared better than most did in the storm.



Point is that wind damage from Camille is no worse than it is from Andrew, so there is no way you can call Camille a 200 mph hurricane and not have it have wind damage greated than that of Andrew.
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#127 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:13 pm

Normandy wrote:
Scorpion wrote:No way Camille was 200 mph, maybe the 1935 Keys hurricane was. Camille was in the range of 170-175 mph. I have no idea where people get 200 mph from, as the best track indicated 190 mph and that was before landfall(the pressure rose).


Agreed I dont even thinks its close to 200 mph.

Find me, I dare you, a worse picture of wind damage from Camille than this from Andrew.
http://flare.creighton.edu/martinelli/a ... andrew.jpg


The Gulfport/Biloxi area probably didn't have any huge trailer parks in flat, wide-open spaces like the picture you provided from post-Andrew in South Florida.
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#128 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:17 pm

EmeraldCoast1 wrote:The Gulfport/Biloxi area probably didn't have any huge trailer parks in flat, wide-open spaces like the picture you provided from post-Andrew in South Florida.


How can you even tell what it was?
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#129 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:17 pm

The damage wasn't as bad as Andrew because there just weren't as many buildings back then.

Harrison Co., MS damage photos - http://www.harrison.lib.ms.us/library_services/camille_pics.htm

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Last edited by wxmann_91 on Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#130 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:17 pm

Exactly, EmeraldCoast. And also, alot of the structures (In Andrew's path) were not up to code. Since Andrew the codes are much more strict.
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#131 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:19 pm

Acral wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, but a fat, slow to idle CAT ONE will do more total damage than a compact 5 gripping and ripping it at say 25ish MPH


That may not be *exactly* correct but the general analogy works.

Just ask some of the folks who lost everything in Allison, a "measly" tropical storm.
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#132 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:25 pm

wxmann_91 , those pics you showed are almost all surge damage.

Show me pictures where water is NOT a part of the equation, because I guarantee you if those pics of Andrew i showed you all had been on the coast there would only be foundations left.

And in the one pic where some wind damage is evident (the 5th one u posted I believe), most trees STILL have there vegetation.

Those pics do not change my mind at all.
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#133 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:25 pm

Linda,

many of the houses were up to code. The findings of not being up to code were based upon a landfalling cat 4 hurricane. I did a project for one of my college classes on the subject a few years ago and the findings of the structures not being up to code at the time were downright laughable. They were comparing wind damage from Andrew to Betsy and Donna. OF COURSE ANDREW DID MORE DAMAGE THAN BETSY AND DONNA. Andrew was 2 cats more intense than Betsy and 1 more than Donna.

In fact, it was only the cat 5 regions that experienced the severe damage. my location, about 1 mile south of the old NHC received little damage (winds were likely worse at my location as its slightly closer to the coast and closer to the eye wall... winds were likely borderline 3/4), and this was true throughout S Fla
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#134 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:47 pm

I know that some of the homes down there had corner windows and no straps. That is in no way up to code. Now, the codes consist of no corner windows and wider hurricane straps. I also believe the tie downs for manufactured homes were almost non existent, even though there were specifics on the tie downs that were not enforced. IMO, if another Cat5 (God forbid) ever strikes that area again, I do believe the damage will be far less than what we saw after Andrew because of the enforcement of the hurricane codes. Same here on the Gulf Coast, except for the casinos, they are an accident waiting to happen.
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#135 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:56 pm

Cannot even imagine what would happen here in SE Texas. I think they have been very lax on codes, at least until very recently, and even still nothing like Florida.

I live in a "2nd tier" county - basically 1 row inland from the coast, in Montgomery County. The homes are built just as they are in Dallas - no hurricane ties whatsoever, with a wood frame and brick exterior. And I have one of the better-built homes where the frame is bolted to the slab; most lower-end homes are just nailed to the slab with a nail gun.

I can't imagine what would happen if an Andrew-like storm came through.
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#136 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:56 pm

I believe that our codes are the same as those at Grand Cayman, if not slightly less strict. I am worried than another Andrew will produce similar results as experienced at Cayman last year
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#137 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Linda,

many of the houses were up to code. The findings of not being up to code were based upon a landfalling cat 4 hurricane. I did a project for one of my college classes on the subject a few years ago and the findings of the structures not being up to code at the time were downright laughable. They were comparing wind damage from Andrew to Betsy and Donna. OF COURSE ANDREW DID MORE DAMAGE THAN BETSY AND DONNA. Andrew was 2 cats more intense than Betsy and 1 more than Donna.

In fact, it was only the cat 5 regions that experienced the severe damage. my location, about 1 mile south of the old NHC received little damage (winds were likely worse at my location as its slightly closer to the coast and closer to the eye wall... winds were likely borderline 3/4), and this was true throughout S Fla


Part of the problem was that even in cases where the houses met code, it was a code that had eroded over the years. Things that formerly required multiple nails required only a single nail; things that had once required a nail only required a staple, etc.

There was also crud going on with the building inspectors. Reported to work at 9 and were on the golf course at 9:30 after 'inspecting' 30 homes.
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#138 Postby SouthernWx » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:54 pm

The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 was by any yardstick the most intense hurricane to ever strike the U.S....and quite possibly the most intense (re: sustained winds) to occur in the Atlantic basin since 1850.

With a measured central pressure of 892.3 mb (26.35"), this small extremely violent hurricane was about the same size as last year's Charley....smaller than hurricane Andrew, and much smaller than Camille.

At landfall the eye was estimated to be less than 8 statute miles in diameter. Hurricane force winds only extended about 15-20 miles from the center....with a central pressure of 892 mb. Imagine the gradient of such pressure change in such a small distance....

To compare...at landfall in 1992, hurricane Andrew had hurricane force winds out 30 miles from the center, and the estimated pressure/ wind relationship (922 mb) gives a value around 145 kts (167 mph). Now extrapolate downward from 922 mb to 892 mb....which adds about 25 kts to the estimated sustained wind intensity (giving an estimated intensity of 170 kts...or 195 mph; and please remember...the 1935 Labor Day hurricane was even smaller than Andrew.

Two other comparisms with hurricanes about the same size as the 1935 Keys hurricane:

1) Charley 2004: sustained winds of 133 kt or 153 mph (based on recon and Nexrad WSR-88 velocity data) with a central pressure of 941 mb....extrapolating down to 892 mb gives an estimated intensity around 174 kts...or 200 mph.

2) Iris 2001: sustained winds of 125 kt with an observed central pressure of 950 mb. Extrapolation to 892 mb gives an estimated intensity of 173 kt (199 mph).

Based on a) comparisms to other similar size severe hurricanes, b) storm surge, and c) incredible reports from ground zero (including confirmed dead bodies found sandblasted to death)...it's my theory and opinion the 1935 Labor Day hurricane possessed sustained winds near 200 mph as it obliterated the middle Florida Keys, with peak gusts in the northeast eyewall likely exceeding 230 mph (200 kts)....or the same wind speeds of a large F4 tornado.

It's possible the sustained winds were even stronger (but IMO not likely) than 200 mph. In 1989, both TWC hurricane expert John Hope and veteran NHC hurricane specialist Robert Case told me they believed the Labor Day hurricane was in the 210 mph range (180 kt).

Now, as for Andrew vs Camille....both were extremely violent hurricanes; both IMO deserving of cat-5 rankings.

While true Camille possessed a lower central pressure at landfall than Andrew (909 mb vs 922 mb), the core eyewall region of hurricane Camille was about twice the size of Andrew, meaning the pressure gradient was slightly less. Also, hurricane Andrew was moving westward at 18-20 mph under a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure....so IMO that added wind speed to the north eyewall.

All in all, after years of research I believe it's likely both hurricane Camille and Andrew possessed sustained winds in the 150-155 kt (170-180 mph) range at time of landfall.....with peak gusts likely reaching or exceeding 180 kt (207 mph)....wind gusts equal to a low end F4 tornado.

Folks can claim Andrew was worse or Camille was worse...but to be honest, IMO both were beyond horrific. I've heard horror stories about both hurricanes from folks who barely escaped dying....from a distant cousin's wife who almost drowned in Camille (and her mother was swept away and perished)...and from friends in south Dade who will never forget the terror of Andrew tearing their homes apart around them in the dark.

The Mississippi coast in 1969 was very sparsely populated....why there aren't many spectacular visual images of wind damage we associate with Andrew. Saying that, a testament to Camille's wind speed? Even inland almost 90 miles from the Gulf, winds gusted to 140 mph at Columbia, Mississippi.....and the wind damage afterwords along and near the Mississippi coast was described by structural engineer Dr Herbert Saffir as "incredible"..."wind damage consistent with a major tornado even miles inland" and away from the shoreline.

PW
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#139 Postby flashflood » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:59 pm

I have a couple of pictures on Andrew that I took a few hours after it happened. I was shocked beyond belief by the whole thing, I was lucky to get these pics.


This one was a car dealer on coral reef drive and the turnkpike.

Image


This one was a housing complex a few miles south of country walk

Image
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#140 Postby Astro_man92 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:59 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:The damage wasn't as bad as Andrew because there just weren't as many buildings back then.

Harrison Co., MS damage photos


still the damage wold have still been worse if the buildings where either washed out to sea or just gone with out a trace. and or even loose ground would be dug up by the winds possibly. maybe exposing pipes has that ever happened???
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