07/31 Annual Revision-Personal Outlook for 2005 Season

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DoctorHurricane2003

07/31 Annual Revision-Personal Outlook for 2005 Season

#1 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:22 pm

S2K Disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Disclaimer: In addition, an official seasonal forecast issued by NOAA is located at the NHC website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

This report is a revision of the June 01st seasonal outlook for the 2005 hurricane season which can be found here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63217

SUN 31.07.2005

ANNUAL JULY 31ST SEASONAL OUTLOOK REVISION FOR 2005

I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION

This annual revision of my initial forecast warrants extreme changes in the prediction for the outlook for the Atlantic Basin and minor changes in the outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin. It is noted that this outlook will not change again unless exceptional conditions warrant (I've never had to issue a september outlook before, so it is unlikely it will happen this year). As always, this revision counts for 1/3 of the average, while the June 01st outlook counts for 2/3.

II. ATLANTIC BASIN

A. INTRODUCTION

The Atlantic Basin so far this year has had an exceptional number of storms to date...in fact seven times the average. As noted in the June 01st outlook, sea surface temperatures were expected to be much warmer than normal this year, and that has played the case with 7 NS and 2 Major Hurricanes...both of which broke the July intensity record. This most certainly warrants an extreme change to my seasonal outlook, which will follow later. It is noted that I have decided in this outlook to NOT change the 12 zone landfall probabilities which can be found at the link at the top of this report. I have also decided to not change any of the forecast reasoning provided in the June 01st outlook.

B. NUMBERS

With this season's short history and the seasonal variables outlined per the June 01st outlook, the revised numbers for this season are as follows:

24 Tropical Depressions
22 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
Chances of Seeing a Category 5: 69%

Change From June 01:

Tropical Depressions: +07
Named Storms: +06
Hurricanes: +01
Major Hurricanes: +02
Category 5 Probability: +18%

I will note, as I did on the June 01st numbers, that I am borderline 06-07 Major Hurricanes for this season, but once again, I decided to lean to the high side.


III. EASTERN PACIFIC

A. INTRODUCTION

The Eastern Pacific basin, on the other hand, seems to be on track with my June 01 outlook philosophy. A minor change will be noted in the hurricane numbers, but the rest will remain the same.

B. NUMBERS

15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
05 Hurricanes
02 Major Hurricanes
Chance of Seeing a Category 5: 21%

Change From June 01:

Tropical Depressions: 00
Named Storms: 00
Hurricanes: -01
Major Hurricanes: -15%

IV. STATISTICS AND CONCLUSION

A. STATISTICS FROM PAST SEASONS

The following are statistics comparing my previous years' forecasts with the actual result:

Statistics Since 2001:

1.ATLANTIC
Actual/Averaged Forecast
2001:
Tropical Depressions: 17/18 (1)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 04/04 (0)

2002:
Tropical Depressions: 14/16 (2)
Named Storms: 12/15 (3)
Hurricanes: 04/07 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 02/04 (2)

2003:
Tropical Depressions: 21/19 (2)
Named Storms: 16/15 (1)
Hurricanes: 07/09 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 03/04 (1)

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 06/04 (2)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.75
Named Storms: +/- 1.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.75
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.25

Standards: I take the absolute value of the missed number of depressions, storms, hurricane, and major hurricanes, and average each category.

2. EASTERN PACIFIC

Eastern Pacific Averages will begin with 2004. I do not recall any averages from 2001-2003, so I will save these averages for future use.

2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/17 (1)
Named Storms: 12/14 (2)
Hurricanes: 06/07 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 03/03 (0)

AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.00
Named Storms: +/- 2.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 0.00

B. CONCLUSION

As I said before, this will be a VERY rough season, particularly in the wet phases of the MJO. The next wet phase should show...what I would call...insane activity...for the Atlantic Basin (if July wasn't insane enough). It will be very important for EVERYONE along the coast to monitor the tropics through November 30, as the entire season should remain active with the absence of El Niño. The Eastern Pacific should be quieter than normal as it has been. One last note: I have never made, nor have I ever thought I would make, such high outlook
numbers for the Atlantic Basin. Be safe as we enter the peak of Hurricane Season 2005!
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:23 pm

Sounds about right to me. Good job!!!
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:25 pm

Good outlook doc and as you said good luck and be safe during the rest of the season.
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#4 Postby Acral » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:26 pm

Excellent work and thanks for your effort.
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#5 Postby JTD » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:30 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Sounds about right to me. Good job!!!
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#6 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:35 pm

great work and well thought out post. keep it up :D
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#7 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:50 pm

24 Tropical Depressions
22 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
Chances of Seeing a Category 5: 69%


Ugh. And I don't disagree. The sad part is that Cat 5's always seem to have a way to end up on or near Florida or in the GOM.

And with the bathwater we have here now (I was finally in it this weekend), I fear the worst regarding a Cat 5. I fear in this season or one upcoming, another Camille or worse is on the horizon.....
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:54 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
24 Tropical Depressions
22 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
Chances of Seeing a Category 5: 69%


Ugh. And I don't disagree. The sad part is that Cat 5's always seem to have a way to end up on or near Florida or in the GOM.

And with the bathwater we have here now (I was finally in it this weekend), I fear the worst regarding a Cat 5. I fear in this season or one upcoming, another Camille or worse is on the horizon.....



I think it would be a good idea to build the house out of Cement/brick?
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#9 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Jul 31, 2005 8:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
24 Tropical Depressions
22 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
07 Major Hurricanes
Chances of Seeing a Category 5: 69%


Ugh. And I don't disagree. The sad part is that Cat 5's always seem to have a way to end up on or near Florida or in the GOM.

And with the bathwater we have here now (I was finally in it this weekend), I fear the worst regarding a Cat 5. I fear in this season or one upcoming, another Camille or worse is on the horizon.....



I think it would be a good idea to build the house out of Cement/brick?


I don't know. I don't know of any man made structures that can survive 200 mph plus winds. They thought the AFB in Homestead could. Boy were they wrong....

Image
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#10 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:52 am

Very expert-like opinion. I mostly agree with those numbers but decided to go on the low side to err on the side of caution.
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#11 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:12 am

22 named storms???!!! Alpha here we come.

:crazyeyes: :shocked!:
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#12 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:12 am

johngaltfla wrote:I don't know. I don't know of any man made structures that can survive 200 mph plus winds. They thought the AFB in Homestead could. Boy were they wrong....


Underground. If it can survive an F5 tornado, then it can survive a 200 mph hurricane.
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#13 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:36 am

Your outlook is scary but I hate to say it could turn out that way. Your numbers in my opinion might be a tad high but not out of the question. We already had 5 storms and its august 1st. Just think what august and september will bring. To think there is people on some boards saying the season will be a bust, lol, they got another thing coming. Everyone on the coast and in florida espically be prepared. Good luck Everyone!

Matt
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#14 Postby WindRunner » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:39 pm

I like to see that someone has a forecast that they actually spend time thinking about insted of doing an x/y/z best guess numbers. Sure, they're fun, but it's nice to see such breakdown with the numbers and the average error. Thanks :D
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#15 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:20 pm

Brent wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:I don't know. I don't know of any man made structures that can survive 200 mph plus winds. They thought the AFB in Homestead could. Boy were they wrong....


Underground. If it can survive an F5 tornado, then it can survive a 200 mph hurricane.


Underground in Florida is under water, LOL.
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#16 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:21 pm

22 named storms huh? Ill hold ya to that.

<RICKY>
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#17 Postby wxwatcher91 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:30 pm

you can hold ME to um... the 20s... nothing specific but I'm saying 20 or more
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#18 Postby cinlfla » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:51 pm

This is an awsome post....Thanks so much for writing so the average person that may not be so weather savvy could understand. :D
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#19 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:02 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:you can hold ME to um... the 20s... nothing specific but I'm saying 20 or more


I would not be surprised if it happens though. Thing is Im gonna laugh if all of a sudden this season is gonna explode with system after system and then that 22 will become a high probability.

<RICKY>
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#20 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:12 pm

That is some good information, but definately a scary outlook.

Hopefully as you say, everyone in harms way pays very close attention to the tropics this year and stays safe. A season that is that busy can easily affect many areas within the Atlantic basin, Carribean, and Gulf of Mexico.
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