92L Invest

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Nimbus
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#21 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:51 am

So are the models going to continue to initialize on the northern part of the split, or will a new Invest be assisgned if two circulations are suspected???


My guess is that they would name it a new invest number.
There is not much left of 92L south of the islands but I did notice a few seed sized puffs of convection near Jamaica yesterday.
This morning some of the energy from the spit is just west of Jamaica and is interacting with an ULL to create a new convection blob.
With the peak of the storm season approaching its not like the NHC needs to spend resources to investigate every blob.
We would have to see some persistence in the convection before the NHC gives it much notice.
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#22 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:57 am

92L is heading to the north and probably safely out to sea, there is no "southern part" to track. This is just what the GFS had been indicating for several days.
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drezee
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#23 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:04 am

first good visible shows potential LLC: 23.2N 69.4W

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#24 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:29 am

You can definately see a LLC on that visible. Maybe it will become a depression sometime today or tomorrow. The NHC said conditions might become more favorable over the next couple of days.
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#25 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:39 am

True P.K,lets put the summer on hold and invite our guests who have travelled across the atlantic,infact one of those systems are set to possibly give us a very wet weekend,latest runs suggest 2 inches,maybe 3 in isolated spots is possible from the merged low pressure system.

LLC is indeed very visable on that satilite picture,doesn't seem to want to die this one does it!
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#26 Postby P.K. » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:53 am

Does look like a bit of rain on the 6am run KW, however the ensemble doesn't have it this wet generally.

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#27 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:16 am

11:30 TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA...HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
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#28 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:12 pm

23.4N 69.8W

Clear LLC..no convection associated with it.
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#29 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:13 pm

gkrangers wrote:23.4N 69.8W

Clear LLC..no convection associated with it.


I see the LLC as weak as it is but the convection is being pushed to the NE because of strong windshear.

<RICKY>
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#30 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:33 pm

92 is organizing more this afternoon, still fighting shear, but as we all know they can fizzle out as quickly as they blow up
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#31 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:35 pm

In the end....92L survives...after going through all that.
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#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:07 pm

Well 92 is the only invest left of the three amigos. :) Will I lock this thread soon as I did with 93 and 94 or 92 will live more longer?
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heres the HPC discussion on whats left of 92L

#33 Postby shaggy » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:17 pm

AN INTERESTING FEATURE POPS UP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST THIS PD AND
MOVES NWWD. WHILE THE 00Z NOGAPS SEEMS TO BELIEVE IT IS THE SFC
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SERN BAHAMAS...THE GFS HAS HAD IT FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW AS DOES THE 12Z UKMET DESPITE THEIR RECURVING THE TROP
FEATURE ENEWD OUT TO SEA. ADDED AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT
RETROGRADES NWWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRI/EARLY SAT THAT SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA UNTIL DISSIPATION.


Going to be interesting if this remains an open trough or forms into something and which way it finally heads any thoughts on this discussion luis?
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#34 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:51 pm

A exposed LLC has formed. 24 north/69.8 west. It is moving to the northeast. Its convection is all sheared to the north.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#35 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:40 pm

Hmmm...interesting little system here. The exposed LLC now has convection firing over center ( well on the north part of the center of circ) it looks as if it's trying to organize. The shear is still there but unless my eyes have gone gooney today it looks to be decreasing.

Check the GOES-12 at 1km 6 image loop hmmm... :wink:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:41 pm

122
ABNT20 KNHC 012131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#37 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:122
ABNT20 KNHC 012131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


This statement on 92L seems to be unfinished.
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#38 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:122
ABNT20 KNHC 012131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


I'd say that sums up the TWD, the shear is what I see holding the reins here. Wednesday may be another story, or if the shear decreases but it's ready to go based on the visible loops
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#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:55 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:122
ABNT20 KNHC 012131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


This statement on 92L seems to be unfinished.


Yes Thunder looks that way.
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#40 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:03 pm

Ok more experienced eyes required here...

feature #2 at 25.75/68.74 compare this to feature #1 at 23.81/69.66

I was looking so hard at #1 I did not see #2.... both look like exposed LLC's yes? # 2 is trying fire convenction over it while # 2 looks like it was obscured by sheared convection.

It just sort of slipped out from under the existing cloud mass..

Ok no pros or semi pros want to tell me this is an eddy? :wink:
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