92L Invest

BensonTCwatcher · #41 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 5:45 pm

Dangit, I was hoping that somebody else sees it. I know I am not crazy....we'll I think I'm not.... er uhhh well I HOPE i'm not

Thunder44 · #42 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:53 pm

969
ABNT20 KNHC 012249
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

Now that makes more sense.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:58 pm

Thunder44 wrote:969
ABNT20 KNHC 012249
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

Now that makes more sense.

Oh ok.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #44 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:10 pm

Ok what I see here is a well defined LLC. I also have noticed that the shear is decreasing by the flare up of the convection over this LLC. I don't understand why the nhc is saying that this can't develop. To me it is more defined then Gert already. This is close to Laughable.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #45 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:21 pm

Down 20 knots. Its getting more favable.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:22 pm

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 23.5N69.5W MOVING
SLOWLY NNE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER... THOUGH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE POPPING OUT OF DISTANT TSTMS NEAR
26N69W. THIS AREA IS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TO WATCH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW A MID/UPPER LOW IS JUST NW OF THE
SURFACE LOW... WITH STRONG SW SHEAR PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE
LOW FROM 23.5N-27N BETWEEN 65W-68.5W.

The above id the 8:05 PM discussion from TPC about 92L.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #47 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:26 pm

It appears to be rather close to becoming something. At least by my eyes. All I see is a increase an oreganizion.

BensonTCwatcher · #48 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:45 pm

Ha I KNEW IT. They saw the other LLC closer to the large convection area too just before the visible sat went dark about 1800 to 2200 UTC. I'd say Matt saw the convection first over the LLC good eye

If it's there in the morning and shear continues to decrease it will be the one to watch. If the steering currents stay in place, AND it stays together it looks like it will make a NW kind of movement then a NE movement. Looks like recurve away from the US either way...prvided it does develop into something more than a depression

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:54 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050802 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050802 0000 050802 1200 050803 0000 050803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 69.6W 25.6N 69.6W 27.3N 69.1W 29.2N 68.0W
BAMM 24.0N 69.6W 25.2N 70.0W 26.5N 69.8W 28.1N 69.2W
A98E 24.0N 69.6W 25.3N 68.9W 26.9N 68.8W 28.4N 67.7W
LBAR 24.0N 69.6W 25.1N 69.7W 26.3N 69.7W 27.6N 69.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050804 0000 050805 0000 050806 0000 050807 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 66.2W 35.0N 58.6W 39.5N 44.9W 45.7N 40.7W
BAMM 29.9N 67.7W 32.5N 62.3W 32.4N 53.4W 29.9N 47.7W
A98E 29.8N 66.2W 31.7N 59.6W 34.0N 48.9W 35.9N 46.5W
LBAR 28.9N 69.1W 31.7N 66.9W 34.7N 63.5W 37.2N 59.1W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 59KTS 54KTS
DSHP 47KTS 57KTS 59KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 69.3W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 67.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Run for 92L.

#50 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:57 pm

looks like models still curve it out to sea. i got no prob with that.

<RICKY>

Sanibel · #51 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:10 pm

Is that 92L shooting north from Hispaniola?

If it is it still has the LLC separated from the convection like before.

Looks like it is undergoing cyclogenesis...

WindRunner · #52 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:13 pm

60 kts

, sounds like enough to track for a few days

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #53 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:14 pm

I think the nhc will wait intill visible intill they upgrade this. It is looking very good right now.

shaggy · #54 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:17 pm

still concerned about the HPC discussion on whatever is out there moving NWWD into the SE will have to watch it for a few days

BensonTCwatcher · #55 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:32 pm

I agree the NHC will wait for visible in the a.m. It may continue to organize the convection over the LLC ( one of them) if the shear keeps decreasing. I just don't see what would allow a longer range NW movement. Of couse the pattern can and will change

#56 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:37 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:I agree the NHC will wait for visible in the a.m. It may continue to organize the convection over the LLC ( one of them) if the shear keeps decreasing. I just don't see what would allow a longer range NW movement. Of couse the pattern can and will change

what do you mean? where do you believe it will end up?

<RICKY>

Swimdude · #57 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:37 pm

92L has been around for far too long. :lol:

BensonTCwatcher · #58 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:42 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:I agree the NHC will wait for visible in the a.m. It may continue to organize the convection over the LLC ( one of them) if the shear keeps decreasing. I just don't see what would allow a longer range NW movement. Of couse the pattern can and will change

what do you mean? where do you believe it will end up?

<RICKY>

I mean I think it would take a series of events to allow this to threaten the eastern US. Anything can happen, but the upper level pattern looks like it will follow the model guidance. I think it will look more NW tomorrow than what the models show but then pick up speed and recurve out to sea.

#59 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:55 pm

It's not looking much like a fish right now.

gkrangers · #60 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:01 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think the nhc will wait intill visible intill they upgrade this. It is looking very good right now.

Is there an LLC under that convection? Otherwise, why would they upgrade it?

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