Question (Hurricane history, etc.)-Biggest 'dud' storm ever?

[gilbert88]

I have a couple of questions about climatology and hurricane history that are more related to appreciation than to hard facts so I'd like to know your opinion.

The Q is... Judging from best track, what's the biggest "dud" storm ever? With dud, I mean... one storm that looks like it will be "The Big One" and ends up fizzling or taking a last minute detour and causes very minimal damage if any. Storms that weakened but still caused major damage (Lili, Isabel, etc.) don't count.

Thanks in advance for your input...

[TheShrimper]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was all but going to wipe out S Fla., but fell apart almost overnight.

[Ivanhater]

earl last year...funny thing was last year a lot of storms were forecast to hit my area. bonnie, charley, earl, ivan

[WeatherEmperor]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was all but going to wipe out S Fla., but fell apart almost overnight.

yes! I remember that. Local news stations were going nuts over things thing but Debbie got killed over Hispanola and poof.

<RICKY>

[djtil]

ill vote for opal.

[mtm4319]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was all but going to wipe out S Fla., but fell apart almost overnight.

It reached its peak wind speed of 75 knots while still east of the Lesser Antilles - and at a pressure of 1004mb. I probably don't remember the hype too well, but looking back, I'm not so sure that qualifies as a "dud".

Just from looking through recent storm paths, Bret of 1999 had some potential:



At advisory number 14 on the map, it was a Category 4 and heading in the general vicinity of Corpus Christi and Galveston. Over the next 24 hours it weakened into a category 3 and took a hard left into the cattle country of Kenedy County. Damages totaled about $60 million.

[Andrew92]

The biggest recent "duds" to me are Debby of 2000, Bret of '99 (hit an unpopulated area), Earl of '04, and Edouard of '96 (that one was forecast rather consistently as I recall to come into the east coast as a major hurricane).

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Hurricane Debby in 2000 was all but going to wipe out S Fla., but fell apart almost overnight.

It reached its peak wind speed of 75 knots while still east of the Lesser Antilles - and at a pressure of 1004mb. I probably don't remember the hype too well, but looking back, I'm not so sure that qualifies as a "dud".

Just from looking through recent storm paths, Bret of 1999 had some potential:



At advisory number 14 on the map, it was a Category 4 and heading in the general vicinity of Corpus Christi and Galveston. Over the next 24 hours it weakened into a category 3 and took a hard left into the cattle country of Kenedy County. Damages totaled about $60 million.

Debby was forecast to become a category 3/4 hurricane before landfall and follow an Andrew-like path. The TUTT that year was extremely strong.

-Andrew92

[TheShrimper]

Yeh, people here in SW Fl. were going beserk, and all the forecasts said it was going to happen. People were astonished when it fizzled. It wasnt like she traveled thru the heart of Hispanola. Even when it weakened, there was still talk of regeneration, but it never took place. A real soprise, but a pleasent one.

[wxmann_91]

Why hasn't anybody mentioned Hurricane Ethel in 1960?



Don't worry, as I mentioned in another thread, it couldn't have been a Cat 5 and then suddenly weakened to a TS. Still, even if it strengthened to a Cat 2, that would still be quite a dud.

[WeatherEmperor]

i wasnt even alive back then. lol

<RICKY>

[SouthernWx]

My vote goes for hurricane Gloria in September 1985...

I've never seen such media hype....after recon reported back 150 mph winds (later reduced to 145) and a central pressure of 919 mb. Everyone believed it was going to level the entire east coast from North Carolina to New England; I heard comparisms to the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes....that New York City, Providence, possibly even Atlantic City and Norfolk were about to be destroyed.

It quickly became apparent that Gloria's bark was worse than her bite....and most post storm surveys now believe Gloria was not even a major hurricane when it struck the U.S.....but instead a 90 kt cat-2 at Cape Hatteras (gusts to 104 kt at Diamond Shoals Light) and no stronger than a 75-80 kt cat-1 at Long Island, NY landfall (peak wind gusts on Long Island were around 85-90 kt; gusts reached 80 kt at Bridgeport, CT).

Another much-hyped hurricane that turned out to be a "dud" was Belle in 1976. Hurricane Belle was a formidable hurricane south of North Carolina (958 mb/ 100-105 kt), but her slow movement (20-25 mph) northward offshore allowed cooler waters to drastically weaken the storm before striking Long Island (near NYC).....Belle was barely a hurricane at landfall.

PW

[wxmann_91]

Oh, and Debby, well, here is a little something from the NHC discussion at 5 AM EDT August 23.

THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 200-300 MB
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF DEBBY. THIS HAS HELPED INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION. A COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA
SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FOR THE 24 HR OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND ALLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL SO FAR...NOW TAKES DEBBY TO 81 KT
BY 72 HR. AN EXTREME OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS A 926 MB
PRESSURE AS DEBBY REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS LOOKS SUSPECT...AS
IT IS ALREADY STRONGER THAN REALITY AND A LOT OF DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE MODEL STORM MOVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
NEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.

[WeatherEmperor]

Oh, and Debby, well, here is a little something from the NHC discussion at 5 AM EDT August 23.

THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 200-300 MB
UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF DEBBY. THIS HAS HELPED INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION. A COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA
SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FOR THE 24 HR OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND ALLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS
MODEL...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL SO FAR...NOW TAKES DEBBY TO 81 KT
BY 72 HR. AN EXTREME OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS A 926 MB
PRESSURE AS DEBBY REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS LOOKS SUSPECT...AS
IT IS ALREADY STRONGER THAN REALITY AND A LOT OF DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE MODEL STORM MOVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
NEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.

I remember that like it was yesterday. I began to get a little scared when I read the NHC discussions about Debby. Oh well.

<RICKY>

[TheShrimper]

Ditto, I was a member of the panic club as well.

[BayouVenteux]

My vote goes for hurricane Gloria in September 1985...

I've never seen such media hype....after recon reported back 150 mph winds (later reduced to 145) and a central pressure of 919 mb. Everyone believed it was going to level the entire east coast from North Carolina to New England; I heard comparisms to the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes....that New York City, Providence, possibly even Atlantic City and Norfolk were about to be destroyed.

It quickly became apparent that Gloria's bark was worse than her bite....and most post storm surveys now believe Gloria was not even a major hurricane when it struck the U.S.....but instead a 90 kt cat-2 at Cape Hatteras (gusts to 104 kt at Diamond Shoals Light) and no stronger than a 75-80 kt cat-1 at Long Island, NY landfall (peak wind gusts on Long Island were around 85-90 kt; gusts reached 80 kt at Bridgeport, CT).

Another much-hyped hurricane that turned out to be a "dud" was Belle in 1976. Hurricane Belle was a formidable hurricane south of North Carolina (958 mb/ 100-105 kt), but her slow movement (20-25 mph) northward offshore allowed cooler waters to drastically weaken the storm before striking Long Island (near NYC).....Belle was barely a hurricane at landfall.

PW

I recall that Gloria was the first storm to be given wall-to-wall coverage by the then-fledgling Cable News Network (CNN). I found the amount of hyperbole they were giving it -- on-air "experts" suggesting New York City residents perform vertical evacuations due to the possibility of a substantial storm surge in midtown Manhattan -- rather amusing even back then. I can only imagine what kind of media frenzy a storm on that path would create today...there wouldn't be a single loaf of white bread or pack of D batteries left from Wilmington, NC to Brunswick Nova Scotia!!!

[Jim Cantore]

Earl and Debby are big ones


Floyd also, places from Florida to North Carolina where stareing down the barrel of a near cat 5 but it weakened big time

it isn't a big dud because of the damage it still caused but imagine if it was still 155 we may be calling Floyd the costliest hurricane to ever hit the U.S

[Jim Cantore]

Nobody mentioned hurricane Lili? thats suprising

[EDR1222]

One that comes to mind to me is Diana of 1984. It formed right off the coast of Florida and moved north. Its winds reached 130 mph as it approached the North Carolina coastline, but it didn't do the damage that it was expected to do.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198405.asp

[Stratusxpeye]

Even though charlie was no dud it felt like an extremem dud to us hear in tampa and vicinity. All the hype heare led me to not be able to eat or get gas for well over a month. My town here literally would have a few concrete block stores left to it had charley came in where he was suppose to. I thank god for that turn but yet feel so bad for thos people 30 miles south of here. He was no dud storm just a dud for my area But I guess its all a good thing, cuz Id still be in a hotel or fema trailer if he hadnt turned. I donated alot of money to those people down there I felt guilty for a month. It was suppose to be us and not them. Just my opinion.