Whats going on over SE Lousisiana?

[bbadon]

there are some interesting buoy obs. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml

[skysummit]

Some pretty strong thunderstorms are taking place right now....pretty early in the morning for this. We usually have this in the evening instead.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF POINTE A LA HACHE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BELLE CHASSE...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE PARISH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2976 9004 2949 8988 2966 8963 2981 8989

[skysummit]

EIR shows a circulation over SE La. Is this the ULL that was in the center of the gulf yesterday?

[bbadon]

Looking at water vapor it does look like a weak ULL but it does appear to have a surface reflection looking at the first visibles. IMO

[Javlin]

It is is Sky made a post in my thread moments ago about the location and track of the ULL.

[duris]

Local met says:

We have some scattered thunderstorms around this morning and we are seeing a little higher coverage than normal over land areas as well, mainly due to a trough of low pressure at the surface stretched across the Gulf coast this morning. This trough is right across the lake which is focusing storms there... So if you're crossing the causeway this morning, give yourself a little extra time and be careful. These storms are slowing drifting toward the southshore lakefront area.

In addition to that, instead of high pressure aloft over the area, there is an upper trough of low pressure from south Louisiana to the Carolinas. This allows the air to more readily rise and develop thunderstorms. Because of this, I think we are looking at an above average coverage of storms today and tomorrow...around 50%.

[Nimbus]

The T-storms seem to be rolling east along the gulf coast.
Probably a high pressure dome building over the eastern gulf.
There is no low level circulation evident with the storms just a little dip in pressure as they pass over the buoys.
If conditions are becoming more favorable perhaps we will see something in the gulf.
There is not much energy leftover from either the stationary front along the gulf coast or the tropical wave remnants moving over western Cuba but the SST's are warm.

[Stormcenter]

The attached statellite loop is interesting, especially off the
LA. coastline.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[PTrackerLA]

The attached statellite loop is interesting, especially off the
LA. coastline.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

I don't see why all I see are scattered thunderstorms offshore moving north. Now if the blob over SE LA was over the gulf then it would be a lot more interesting. The good news is the above normal rain chances are supposed to stick around through Friday so we finally might start making up some rainfall deficits. Had a nice soaker last and the grass looked wonderful this morning .

[Stormcenter]

There seems to be a small spin off the LA. coastline.
It could just be my old eyes seeing things. I'm not sure
if it's UL from yesterday or not.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Steve]

>>Because of this, I think we are looking at an above average coverage of storms today and tomorrow...around 50%.

That's a very lame forecast and sounds like one of the Channel 4 guys. I mean come on. It started thundering around 6am this morning, and it's still thundering almost 5 hours later. Sounds like a real above average coverage. There's a surface trof parked right over us which is a focusing mechanism for thunderstorms. Every now and then they need to go out a little further from the shadows of their mothers' skirts and call for a 70 or 80% chance of rain (or higher) if that's the reality rather that blurting out everything in weatherspeak.

I find them highly comical on their 870 weather tape. "Let's check in with Carl at the Weathercenter" which was the same loop they played last hour, the hour before that and such. "We've got a 20% chance of rain this afternooon" all the while you're driving through flooded streets.

LMAO even though I like those guys.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

yep, its a nasty day over here too

[Stormcenter]

>>Because of this, I think we are looking at an above average coverage of storms today and tomorrow...around 50%.

That's a very lame forecast and sounds like one of the Channel 4 guys. I mean come on. It started thundering around 6am this morning, and it's still thundering almost 5 hours later. Sounds like a real above average coverage. There's a surface trof parked right over us which is a focusing mechanism for thunderstorms. Every now and then they need to go out a little further from the shadows of their mothers' skirts and call for a 70 or 80% chance of rain (or higher) if that's the reality rather that blurting out everything in weatherspeak.

I find them highly comical on their 870 weather tape. "Let's check in with Carl at the Weathercenter" which was the same loop they played last hour, the hour before that and such. "We've got a 20% chance of rain this afternooon" all the while you're driving through flooded streets.

LMAO even though I like those guys.

Steve

Good post Steve.

[jasons2k]

Well I guess I can eat some crow b/c I really thought something would have developed by now (speaking from a last Thursday POV). The old trough is all but gone but there is still a wind shift in the Gulf. Nothing looks imminent but I wonder how many more days we can see this convection before something finally happens. Eventually something's gotta give...

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan, it sure is a nasty day out today...but at least were getting a break from the heat...my ac is jumping up and down with appreciation

[tw861]

There seems to be a small spin off the LA. coastline.
It could just be my old eyes seeing things. I'm not sure
if it's UL from yesterday or not.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

I would tend to agree with you Storm, there does seem to be a small spin just offshore southwest of Grand Ilse. Also of note using the NASA site zoomed in are the low cloud elements off the Texas coast. They seem to be moving ENE

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, it sure is a nasty day out today...but at least were getting a break from the heat...my ac is jumping up and down with appreciation

aint that the truth

[jasons2k]

Some of these rainfall totals are impressive. 1 HR and Storm Totals:

[Steve]

I don't know schlitz. Some of the models continue to show lower pressure over the area, but some of the closed surface isobars are in-land opening and closing periodically. I think it's just a weather regime that's going to take its sweet time in washing out.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

I continue to watch (maybe too much) this loop and say hmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6