NOAA predicts 11-14 more storms

[SouthernWx]

Gonna be just like 1995 (and 1933) all over again....except IMO even worst (due to near record sst's

[Derek Ortt]

SAL may be letting up.

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL

check the final pass from yesterday. there's a moisture bulge to the north

[EDR1222]

With the current MJO phase and the SAL, it will be interesting to see what happens. If we start to get toward the middle of August with no action due to these factors, they may be a little off IMHO.

Obviously they are the pros and I am not, but some of the mets on here have been discussing the persistence of the MJO in July that helped create an environment condusive to many storms and the fact that it stuck around for so long. The same could hold true for the phase it is in now which could really supress development through much of August.

Only time will tell.

[x-y-no]

With the current MJO phase and the SAL, it will be interesting to see what happens. If we start to get toward the middle of August with no action due to these factors, they may be a little off IMHO.

Obviously they are the pros and I am not, but some of the mets on here have been discussing the persistence of the MJO in July that helped create an environment condusive to many storms and the fact that it stuck around for so long. The same could hold true for the phase it is in now which could really supress development through much of August.

Only time will tell.

The MJO regime is staring to change - July was mostly neutral, but we're getting a convective increase in the WPAC which ought to propagate to the Atlantic basin in two to three weeks.

[beachbum_al]

I saw that on my home page when I got online.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Scary, scary outlook. Obviously though they feel things will get more favorable? So are things already getting more favorable but the sound of some peoples posts?

Matt

[cycloneye]

Now let's see how Dr Gray ups his numbers when he issues his august update on friday.

[skysummit]

Let's all enjoy this lull while it lasts. I guess if you haven't gotten your hurricane gear together, now would be a great time to do it. We went through our practice run at the beginning of the season, but I'm sure we'll see the real thing in a few weeks. Let's prepare now if you haven't already done so.

[EDR1222]

With the current MJO phase and the SAL, it will be interesting to see what happens. If we start to get toward the middle of August with no action due to these factors, they may be a little off IMHO.

Obviously they are the pros and I am not, but some of the mets on here have been discussing the persistence of the MJO in July that helped create an environment condusive to many storms and the fact that it stuck around for so long. The same could hold true for the phase it is in now which could really supress development through much of August.

Only time will tell.

The MJO regime is staring to change - July was mostly neutral, but we're getting a convective increase in the WPAC which ought to propagate to the Atlantic basin in two to three weeks.

If that is the case, do you think there is the possibility of the first few weeks of this month being very slow?

[wxmann_91]

With the current MJO phase and the SAL, it will be interesting to see what happens. If we start to get toward the middle of August with no action due to these factors, they may be a little off IMHO.

Obviously they are the pros and I am not, but some of the mets on here have been discussing the persistence of the MJO in July that helped create an environment condusive to many storms and the fact that it stuck around for so long. The same could hold true for the phase it is in now which could really supress development through much of August.

Only time will tell.

The MJO regime is staring to change - July was mostly neutral, but we're getting a convective increase in the WPAC which ought to propagate to the Atlantic basin in two to three weeks.

...

If that is the case, do you think there is the possibility of the first few weeks of this month being very slow?

That could certainly be possible. In fact, that's what I think, but chances are the second half of this month could be a lion.

[x-y-no]

If that is the case, do you think there is the possibility of the first few weeks of this month being very slow?

Yes.

[rockyman]

Report from AP via Washington Post:

Weather Service Boosts Hurricane Forecast

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
The Associated Press
Tuesday, August 2, 2005; 10:41 AM



WASHINGTON -- The government on Tuesday sharply boosted its forecast for hurricanes this season, predicting 18 to 21 tropical storms by the end of November.

That's up from a forecast in May of 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes.

There have already been seven named storms this year, two of them hurricanes. That means the remainder of the year could see 11 to 14 more storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, Weather Service Director David L. Johnson said at a briefing.

Hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell the combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm water. The sea surface is two to three degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, Bell noted.

Wind shear, a change in wind direction with altitude, can suppress these storms and lack of shear allows them to form. The jet stream is in place to guide disturbances moving off the coast of Africa, he added.

Weather Service officials urged preparedness on the part of people living in hurricane-prone areas.

Bell said hurricanes have increased since 1995. He said there is a cycle between more and less active hurricane seasons which lasts for decades. The nation's coastlines had major population increases during the decades with low storm activity before 1995, he noted.

A new analysis by Kerry Emmanuel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests global warming is making tropical storms stronger.

However, that report did not suggest it is generating more storms and Bell said it isn't possible to determine such an effect because the cycles of more and fewer storms are so strong.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/02/AR2005080200794_pf.html

[rockyman]

Story from MSNBC:
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be worse than previously expected, with 18 to 21 tropical storms and nine to 11 hurricanes through November, the U.S. government forecast on Tuesday.

“Although we have already seen a record-setting seven tropical storms during June and July, much of the season’s activity is still to come,” Gerry Bell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist, told reporters.

In May, NOAA predicted the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season would be above normal, with 12 to 15 tropical storms and seven to nine hurricanes.

The season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, already has seen seven named storms, two of them hurricanes. That means the remainder of the season could see 11 to 14 more storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, Weather Service Director David Johnson said at a briefing.

The record for named Atlantic storms is 19, which was set in 1995.

Private forecaster eyes Carolinas
NOAA officials said they could not predict how many of the storms would hit the U.S. coast. The season typically peaks in August.

However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.

“The most action will be from Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I’m targeting the Carolinas for the worst,” Bastardi said. “Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast.”

Tropical disturbances and storms often form off the west coast of Africa, then move west toward the Caribbean and the United States as they strengthen.


Factors cited
Bell said a combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm water. The sea surface is two to three degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, Bell noted.

Wind shear, a change in wind direction with altitude, can suppress these storms and lack of shear allows them to form. The jet stream is in place to guide disturbances moving off the coast of Africa, he added.

The increased activity is due to cyclical conditions, not global
warming, NOAA officials said. Hurricane activity was low in the 1980s and early 1990s and a more active cycle of hurricanes is now under way, Bell said.

“It’s certainly reasonable to expect above-normal hurricane seasons for the next decade or perhaps even longer,” he said. “It’s not a matter of
if more hurricanes are going to hit the coast, it’s simply a matter of
when.”

Global warming debate
A study published Sunday in the science journal Nature said hurricanes have become more destructive during the last 30 years and their intensity could increase as a result of global warming.

NOAA said its detailed hurricane records only date back to 1945, which means it lacks enough data to determine if there is any link to global warming.

“We’re not convinced that global warming is playing an important role yet, or if at all, in this era of increased activity,” Bell said.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8797726/

[rockyman]

Story from Reuters via CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/02/hurricanes.reut/index.html

[wxwatcher91]

Scary, scary outlook. Obviously though they feel things will get more favorable? So are things already getting more favorable but the sound of some peoples posts?

Matt

the 1130am TWO mentioned a TD or TS possible within 24 hours. of course the TWO has mentioned possible TD development about 32 times in the past 5 days and nothing.

the latest shows that the dry MJO has moved almost completely out of the Atlantic and that the wet MJO is now crossing Central America into the Atlantic... I think we will be seeing two tropical systems in the Atlantic by the end of this week

[joseph01]

Possibly 14 more storms? That sounds almost impossible. Has hurricanegirl said "Holy Crap" yet? If not, Holy Crap!

[Sanibel]

Could you help me with the formwork while I pour the concrete?

[dwg71]

Scary, scary outlook. Obviously though they feel things will get more favorable? So are things already getting more favorable but the sound of some peoples posts?

Matt

the 1130am TWO mentioned a TD or TS possible within 24 hours. of course the TWO has mentioned possible TD development about 32 times in the past 5 days and nothing.

the latest shows that the dry MJO has moved almost completely out of the Atlantic and that the wet MJO is now crossing Central America into the Atlantic... I think we will be seeing two tropical systems in the Atlantic by the end of this week

If one of those is 92L, then you might be right. And I dont know what your definition of Tropical System is. Depression, TS, Invest, I dont know. You can argue that we had 3 last week, but none of them developed into much of anything.

11-14 named storms is a bunch that seem high to me, I'll bet 7-11 with 5 hurricanes, 1 major, and 3 US landfalls of the hurricanes. East Coast from Miami to NC.

[george_r_1961]

Do not be fooled with the lull we are experiencing now. Remember the "busy" part of the season has yet to come. The SAL should be gone by mid month IMO then it will be time for round two of Hurricane Season 2005. Also keep in mind that the SAL affects mostly systems in the central and eastern Atlantic. We have a trough in the western Atlantic and we all know these troughs can spin up surprises from time to time.

[brunota2003]

Scary, scary outlook. Obviously though they feel things will get more favorable? So are things already getting more favorable but the sound of some peoples posts?

Matt

the 1130am TWO mentioned a TD or TS possible within 24 hours. of course the TWO has mentioned possible TD development about 32 times in the past 5 days and nothing.

the latest shows that the dry MJO has moved almost completely out of the Atlantic and that the wet MJO is now crossing Central America into the Atlantic... I think we will be seeing two tropical systems in the Atlantic by the end of this week

If one of those is 92L, then you might be right. And I dont know what your definition of Tropical System is. Depression, TS, Invest, I dont know. You can argue that we had 3 last week, but none of them developed into much of anything.

11-14 named storms is a bunch that seem high to me, I'll bet 7-11 with 5 hurricanes, 1 major, and 3 US landfalls of the hurricanes. East Coast from Miami to NC.

Gee thanks, just wish the hurricanes closer to me and away from you, I see how you are... j/p