NOAA predicts 11-14 more storms

[deltadog03]

so, dwg, are you saying the gulf is safe the rest of the year??? a bit far fetched....i think things will really blow up and everyone should pay attention...

[floridahurricaneguy]

Stuff looks like it will start getting ugly by the sound of everything. We move to Tampa sunday. I guess we should probably get a hurricane kit ready. Even if it we dont see a Tampa landfall they all seem to love to come right across florida and eventually end up over there anyways.

Matt

[floridahurricaneguy]

dwg, your forecast seems a lot lower then NOAA's. I might go a tad lower then theres but not that much. I think its going to be a record breaking season with tons of activity like they are thinking.

So you think the gulf is totally clear then? I also think thats a little far fetched

[george_r_1961]

No one is in the clear until the season is over. We will probably continue to have high SST's and if the other conditions remain favorable after the SAL is gone we may very well run into overtime.

[dwg71]

so, dwg, are you saying the gulf is safe the rest of the year??? a bit far fetched....i think things will really blow up and everyone should pay attention...

Yeah its safe, nothing will come into the gulf..take it to the bank, bet the ranch, or whatever else you want to say.

obvious sarcasm laid on thick...

Far fetched no, how many storms that formed in August or later made landfall on gulf coast in another busy year of 1995? One, and there were 14 named storms that formed after 1995. Sure its possible, but I think the bigger threat is East coast, jmo.

[Derek Ortt]

actually, there were 3 after erin in 1995. Gabrielle, Opal, and Roxanne

[dwg71]

Sorry, I meant US gulf coast landfalls. I should have been more clear..

[deltadog03]

i think the gulf will be busier for the simple reason of the RIDGE...we have seen this most of the season....now sure, there will be times when the ridge breaks down and storms will threaten the East coast.

[beenthru6]

Story from MSNBC:
Private forecaster eyes Carolinas
NOAA officials said they could not predict how many of the storms would hit the U.S. coast. The season typically peaks in August.

However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.

“The most action will be from Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I’m targeting the Carolinas for the worst,” Bastardi said. “Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast.”

/[/url]

Well, up until now, I was feeling pretty safe this season, with all of the systems heading for Florida and the GOM. I guess I better get my butt in gear and finish prepping my hurricane supplies. SIGH!

[dwg71]

i think the gulf will be busier for the simple reason of the RIDGE...we have seen this most of the season....now sure, there will be times when the ridge breaks down and storms will threaten the East coast.

Activity in Gulf at Sept 1 will be relegated to MS/AL/FL. Once we get fronts coming through (already had one) they will be pushed N to NE. August storms in the gulf can go just about anywhere, but they have to get there first.

[TS Zack]

Its all about timing...

[floridahurricaneguy]

It sounds like carolinas have biggest risk. Most of you still think Florida is highly under the gun?

[deltadog03]

NO, I don't....i think FL has just as good of a chance as the rest of the coast....

[floridahurricaneguy]

Ok just wondering. Its really impossible anyways where do predict they will go. One question, why does it seems most hurricanes that landfall on the east coast of florida dont go across instead of keep going north back into the atlantic?

It seems both western and eastern florida then get affected when they go across the state.

Matt

[cinlfla]

I think what Noaa said was residents in hurricane prone coastal areas should be prepared that tells me that all coastal states from Tx,NO,Miss,Fla,Ga,Sc,Nc and don't forget our friends in the islands we are all at risk there are no if's and's or butts about it.

[TS Zack]

The funny thing about it is.

We are pretty much starting a whole new season and its still above average.

[Hurricaneman]

Im always going to keep my eyes out

[Hurricanehink]

The funny thing about it is.

We are pretty much starting a whole new season and its still above average.

You are right, and in my opinion, there are really 3 seasons.
1) June and July- In close development
2) August and September- Anywhere
3) October and November- Subtropical Development/Caribbean

Some have more of a particular season than others. 1997 had more of 1, 2001 had more of 3. This season may get the best of all 3.

[SouthernWx]

Here's a grave concern of mine...

We just witnessed the TWO most intense July hurricanes of record.....Emily (929 mb) and Dennis (930 mb). Imagine the horror if that were to happen in August, September, or October...when the current most intense hurricanes of record in those months maxed out at 899 mb (Allen/ Aug 1980), 888 mb (Gilbert/ Sept 1988), and 905 mb (Mitch/ Oct 1998)

I'm not saying it will happen....or even if there will be another hurricane as intense as Emily....although I believe there's an excellent chance of it; a better than 75% chance IMO of at least one cat-5 hurricane between now and November....which would make the third straight year in which that has occurred, which in inself is unprecidated). I honestly won't be surprised if we witness a record breaking hurricane in either August or September; a mega-hurricane even more intense than 1988's Gilbert (888 mb).

We're in uncharted waters....never before have we experienced 7 named storms in the Atlantic basin before August 1st. Never before have we witnessed two borderline cat-4/5 monsters before August 1st.... and the fact of the matter is...we HAVEN'T EVEN reached the "normal" season for major hurricanes to occur. Check the hurricane archives at NHC or Unisys....category 3,4,5 hurricanes are very rare before August 1st; in fact, it's unusual to witness a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin before mid-August.

We're sitting here only two days into August....the prime time for intense hurricanes still weeks away, and have already seen two monster hurricanes....and a major landfalling U.S. hurricane. While true Dennis weakened considerably before impact on the Florida panhandle, but was still a 120-125 mph cat-3 hurricane at landfall....only the 4th major hurricane to strike the U.S. during July since 1900 (and at 946 mb, the most intense of record for July).

I wish I had some good news for coastal residents, but unfortunately I don't. At least at this time, I see no inhibiting factors to limit the number or intensity of Atlantic hurricanes between mid-August and mid-October. In fact, the fact we've experienced this "lull" will only allow the sea surface temperatures to warm and oceanic heat content become more potent. I'm alarmed at the growing area of 86-87° degree waters offshore the Carolinas. I'm equally concerned about the very large area of 86-89° sst surrounding southern Florida and much of the Bahamas. Even though "prime time" for major south Florida hurricanes is a month away, already the "high octane" sst's from Florida eastward and southeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles almost guarantee any approaching tropical cyclone will deepen significantly before landfall.

You can never say with certainty what mother nature has in the cards.....we could get lucky and see all the powerful hurricanes remain far at sea the next three months. Saying that, my instincts and the overall weather pattern tells me differently; tells me the U.S. east and gulf coasts, Mexican coast, and the Caribbean islands are in great danger of multiple major hurricanes....quite possibly even more intense than what July produced

PW

[sweetpea]

Here's a grave concern of mine...

We just witnessed the TWO most intense July hurricanes of record.....Emily (929 mb) and Dennis (930 mb). Imagine the horror if that were to happen in August, September, or October...when the current most intense hurricanes of record in those months maxed out at 899 mb (Allen), 888 mb (Gilbert), and 905 mb (Mitch)

I'm not saying it will happen....or even if there will be another hurricane as intense as Emily....although I believe there's an excellent chance of it; a better than 75% chance IMO of at least one cat-5 hurricane between now and November....which would make the third straight year in which that has occurred, which in inself is unprecidated). I honestly won't be surprised if we witness a record breaking hurricane in either August or September; a mega-hurricane even more intense than 1988's Gilbert (888 mb).

We're in uncharted waters....never before have we experienced 7 named storms in the Atlantic basin before August 1st. Never before have we witnessed two borderline cat-4/5 monsters before August 1st....[b] and the fact of the matter is...we HAVEN'T EVEN reached the "normal" season for major hurricanes to occur. Check the hurricane archives at NHC or Unysis....category 3,4,5 hurricanes are very rare before August; in fact, it's unusual to witness a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin before mid-August.

We're sitting here only two days into August....the prime time for intense hurricanes still weeks away, and have already seen two monster hurricanes....and a major landfalling U.S. hurricane. While true Dennis weakened considerably before impact on the Florida panhandle, but was still a 120-125 mph cat-3 hurricane at landfall....only the 4th major hurricane to strike the U.S. during July since 1900 (and at 946 mb, the most intense of record for July).

I wish I had some good news for coastal residents, but unfortunately I don't. At least at this time, I see no inhibiting factors to limit the number or intensity of Atlantic hurricanes between mid-August and mid-October. In fact, the fact we've experienced this "lull" will only allow the sea surface temperatures to warm and oceanic heat content become more potent. I'm alarmed at the growing area of 86-87° degree waters offshore the Carolinas. I'm equally concerned about the very large area of 86-90° sst surrounding southern Florida and much of the Bahamas. Even though "prime time" for major south Florida hurricanes is a month away, already the "high octane" sst's from Florida eastward and southeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles almost guarantee any approaching tropical cyclone will deepen significantly before landfall.

You can never say with certainty what mother nature has in the cards.....we could get lucky and see all the powerful hurricanes remain far at sea the next three months. Saying that, my instincts and the overall weather pattern tells me different; tells me the U.S. east and gulf coasts, Mexican coast, and the Caribbean islands are in great danger of multiple major hurricanes....quite possibly even more intense than what July produced

PW

Great Post. Bottom line everyone needs to pay attention and stay safe.