NOAA predicts 11-14 more storms

[feederband]

Maybe --- marcus was on to something with his 19/11/6 projection..Back then I thought he may have been on something who knew...

[floridahurricaneguy]

Here's a grave concern of mine...

We just witnessed the TWO most intense July hurricanes of record.....Emily (929 mb) and Dennis (930 mb). Imagine the horror if that were to happen in August, September, or October...when the current most intense hurricanes of record in those months maxed out at 899 mb (Allen/ Aug 1980), 888 mb (Gilbert/ Sept 1988), and 905 mb (Mitch/ Oct 1998)

I'm not saying it will happen....or even if there will be another hurricane as intense as Emily....although I believe there's an excellent chance of it; a better than 75% chance IMO of at least one cat-5 hurricane between now and November....which would make the third straight year in which that has occurred, which in inself is unprecidated). I honestly won't be surprised if we witness a record breaking hurricane in either August or September; a mega-hurricane even more intense than 1988's Gilbert (888 mb).

We're in uncharted waters....never before have we experienced 7 named storms in the Atlantic basin before August 1st. Never before have we witnessed two borderline cat-4/5 monsters before August 1st.... and the fact of the matter is...we HAVEN'T EVEN reached the "normal" season for major hurricanes to occur. Check the hurricane archives at NHC or Unisys....category 3,4,5 hurricanes are very rare before August 1st; in fact, it's unusual to witness a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin before mid-August.

We're sitting here only two days into August....the prime time for intense hurricanes still weeks away, and have already seen two monster hurricanes....and a major landfalling U.S. hurricane. While true Dennis weakened considerably before impact on the Florida panhandle, but was still a 120-125 mph cat-3 hurricane at landfall....only the 4th major hurricane to strike the U.S. during July since 1900 (and at 946 mb, the most intense of record for July).

I wish I had some good news for coastal residents, but unfortunately I don't. At least at this time, I see no inhibiting factors to limit the number or intensity of Atlantic hurricanes between mid-August and mid-October. In fact, the fact we've experienced this "lull" will only allow the sea surface temperatures to warm and oceanic heat content become more potent. I'm alarmed at the growing area of 86-87° degree waters offshore the Carolinas. I'm equally concerned about the very large area of 86-89° sst surrounding southern Florida and much of the Bahamas. Even though "prime time" for major south Florida hurricanes is a month away, already the "high octane" sst's from Florida eastward and southeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles almost guarantee any approaching tropical cyclone will deepen significantly before landfall.

You can never say with certainty what mother nature has in the cards.....we could get lucky and see all the powerful hurricanes remain far at sea the next three months. Saying that, my instincts and the overall weather pattern tells me differently; tells me the U.S. east and gulf coasts, Mexican coast, and the Caribbean islands are in great danger of multiple major hurricanes....quite possibly even more intense than what July produced

PW

Excellent post. I think everyone just needs to be prepared for worst the to happen and it may not but its better to be ready.

Matt

[sma10]

To those who may think that 11-14 more named storms this year seems a bit excessive, here are some recent statistics:

Number of named storms to form between August 2nd and end of season --

1995 -- 14
1996 -- 10
1997 -- 3 (El-nino)
1998 -- 13
1999 -- 11
2000 -- 14
2001 -- 14
2002 -- 11
2003 -- 12
2004 -- 14

It seems to me based on the numbers, that 11 - 14 sounds just about perfect (if recent history is a judge).

Furthermore, be prepared on Friday for Dr. Gray's numbers to be raised to at least 20. Remember: when he made his original prediction of 15, he most assuredly was not banking on an historic June/July start. His guess of 15 most likely was under the assumption of a more typical start of 1 or 2 storms by July's end.

[cycloneye]

Regardless of what will occur the rest of the season the Bottomline is from Brownsville to Maine,From Mexico to CentralAmerica ,The Bahama Islands,Bermuda and from Cuba to Puerto Rico,the VI,The Leewards and the Windwards.All be prepared and be safe because it only takes one to change your life.

[beenthru6]

But if we start to get a train of systems following each other across from Africa, wouldn't upwelling play a major role in inhibiting their intensification? Or are the waters too warm too deep for it to be much of an inhibiting factor?

[Andrew92]

To those who may think that 11-14 more named storms this year seems a bit excessive, here are some recent statistics:

Number of named storms to form between August 2nd and end of season --

1995 -- 14
1996 -- 10
1997 -- 3 (El-nino)
1998 -- 13
1999 -- 11
2000 -- 14
2001 -- 14
2002 -- 11
2003 -- 12
2004 -- 14

It seems to me based on the numbers, that 11 - 14 sounds just about perfect (if recent history is a judge).

Furthermore, be prepared on Friday for Dr. Gray's numbers to be raised to at least 20. Remember: when he made his original prediction of 15, he most assuredly was not banking on an historic June/July start. His guess of 15 most likely was under the assumption of a more typical start of 1 or 2 storms by July's end.

2002 was also an El Nino year....just had more storms that lived short lives, and only four out of the remaining 11 became hurricanes.

Still, I think more hurricanes will come this year....we might not quite hit a 50% ratio between storms that become hurricanes and those that don't, but the gap will at least close with time I am afraid.

-Andrew92

[T'Bonz]

I'm glad for the lull. But it was sobering to turn on the news when I woke up and hear the updated forecast.

On a happy note, our shutters were installed today. That makes me feel a heck of a lot better. The guys finished just before a t-storm rolled in too.

[Derek Ortt]

2000 had 15. There was a late season unnamed subtropical storm as well

[EDR1222]

I'm glad for the lull. But it was sobering to turn on the news when I woke up and hear the updated forecast.

On a happy note, our shutters were installed today. That makes me feel a heck of a lot better. The guys finished just before a t-storm rolled in too.

It must feel good to have shutters installed. I am hoping to have that done in Sept., hoping it isn't too late!

I hope NOAA is wrong on their predictions. As you say, definately sobering.

[johngaltfla]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html

[johngaltfla]

Here's a grave concern of mine...

We just witnessed the TWO most intense July hurricanes of record.....Emily (929 mb) and Dennis (930 mb). Imagine the horror if that were to happen in August, September, or October...when the current most intense hurricanes of record in those months maxed out at 899 mb (Allen/ Aug 1980), 888 mb (Gilbert/ Sept 1988), and 905 mb (Mitch/ Oct 1998)

I'm not saying it will happen....or even if there will be another hurricane as intense as Emily....although I believe there's an excellent chance of it; a better than 75% chance IMO of at least one cat-5 hurricane between now and November....which would make the third straight year in which that has occurred, which in inself is unprecidated). I honestly won't be surprised if we witness a record breaking hurricane in either August or September; a mega-hurricane even more intense than 1988's Gilbert (888 mb).

We're in uncharted waters....never before have we experienced 7 named storms in the Atlantic basin before August 1st. Never before have we witnessed two borderline cat-4/5 monsters before August 1st.... and the fact of the matter is...we HAVEN'T EVEN reached the "normal" season for major hurricanes to occur. Check the hurricane archives at NHC or Unisys....category 3,4,5 hurricanes are very rare before August 1st; in fact, it's unusual to witness a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin before mid-August.

We're sitting here only two days into August....the prime time for intense hurricanes still weeks away, and have already seen two monster hurricanes....and a major landfalling U.S. hurricane. While true Dennis weakened considerably before impact on the Florida panhandle, but was still a 120-125 mph cat-3 hurricane at landfall....only the 4th major hurricane to strike the U.S. during July since 1900 (and at 946 mb, the most intense of record for July).

I wish I had some good news for coastal residents, but unfortunately I don't. At least at this time, I see no inhibiting factors to limit the number or intensity of Atlantic hurricanes between mid-August and mid-October. In fact, the fact we've experienced this "lull" will only allow the sea surface temperatures to warm and oceanic heat content become more potent. I'm alarmed at the growing area of 86-87° degree waters offshore the Carolinas. I'm equally concerned about the very large area of 86-89° sst surrounding southern Florida and much of the Bahamas. Even though "prime time" for major south Florida hurricanes is a month away, already the "high octane" sst's from Florida eastward and southeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles almost guarantee any approaching tropical cyclone will deepen significantly before landfall.

You can never say with certainty what mother nature has in the cards.....we could get lucky and see all the powerful hurricanes remain far at sea the next three months. Saying that, my instincts and the overall weather pattern tells me differently; tells me the U.S. east and gulf coasts, Mexican coast, and the Caribbean islands are in great danger of multiple major hurricanes....quite possibly even more intense than what July produced

PW

Well stated. And very intelligent and well thought out. Kudos to you.

[jasons2k]

i think the gulf will be busier for the simple reason of the RIDGE...we have seen this most of the season....now sure, there will be times when the ridge breaks down and storms will threaten the East coast.

Activity in Gulf at Sept 1 will be relegated to MS/AL/FL. Once we get fronts coming through (already had one) they will be pushed N to NE. August storms in the gulf can go just about anywhere, but they have to get there first.

Are you that confident in the synoptic pattern almost 30 days from now to make such a declaration? Climatology suggests the TX coast generally isn't safe until October. What makes you think this year will be any different?

[drezee]

My two cents:

I still give little credibility to the NOAA forecast. They are piggybacking off of work that the NHC "had" ignored for years. Now that his methods have credibility, they take it and send out there forecast days for his to somehow discredit him. Out of respect, they should send there after his prediction.

[cycloneye]

Bumping for those who haved not seen this NOAA report.

[Astro_man92]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html

To tell you the truth I'm not surprised at all. At the begining of the season the NHC was expecting 15 named storms. I had a get feeling that we were going to have at least 17 and that was before the begining of june and I heard how active the 1933 hurricane season was. now my opinion has been swayed by the recent activity and so I'm not surprised at all.



note: frown nod