Pacific Northwest Weather

[andycottle]

Anthony... you are right. Not much to really talk about with the weather being so quiet and calm. My high today was 84 with a low of 55. And bet in most houses, it`s still pretty WARM at this hour. Think inside ours right now, it`s 77, 78 degrees. Have only seen it as warm as about 81 in house. -- Andy

[andycottle]

July 2005 Weather stats for Woodinville...

Avg. High temp: 73
Avg. Low temp: 52
Warmest High temp: 86 (18th)
Coldest Low temp: 48 (10th)
Days with measureable precip: 10
Monthly precip: 0.82"
Yearly precip so far: 17.14"

Another nice calm and sunny day with no clouds to be seen. Though it seemed a bit on the WARM side, my high today was 85 with a low of 55. Have a great evening you all! -- Andy

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck its finally have a slight chance for a shower tomarrow. Most of this freaking week was around 86 to 92 degrees. But already its forecasted to get hot again by mid week. Maybe as hot as the mid 90s. Darn it!

[snow_wizzard]

I just had to weigh in on some of what's going here.

1. The SST's are plunging

2. The PDO is plunging (believe me...the July numbers will be much lower when they are published).

3. The AO is very likely to be negative this winter (according to an expert I know).

This winter is going to be wicked. It remains to be seen just who will get hit the hardest, but I think much of the northern tier will get pegged this winter. There are some other subtle things going on that really have me psyched. For one, I had a lot of quite cool nights in July in spite of the warm weather. Normally when the highs are in the mid 80s we get lows in the upper 50s, this time I was seeing 50 - 53. The warm spell the past week has been more like an early Sept warm spell than late July. I'm telling you guys this is the year! Even the CPC shows the NW quarter of the nation as having the best chance to be cold for Dec - Feb (the largest area of equal chance).

Something to watch: The GFS is showing a trough slamming down from the north early next week. If it is correct it will be a solid taste of fall.

Nobody is going to dampen my spirits on this!

[snow_wizzard]

ict1523...

I am sure our recent winters would have driven you nuts, but we do get cold climate phases here that bring much colder and snowier winters. During such phases we can get winters that are snowier than New York city. The really cool thing is that our cold phases last for 30 years or so, and we about to go into one.

I don't think anyone really knows why, but the NW and north central parts of the country have much greater variability (climatically) than the NE. A case in point is Palmer WA. From 1945 - 1980 they averaged 52 inches of snow per winter. The average from 1981 to the present has plunged to 17 inches per winter. Don't believe what you hear that it never snows here. That has just been the case for a short time.

[AnthonyC]

A nice cool down today...high temperature of 69F with morning drizzle. Nothing too much but a big change from the past week.

Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week...possibly the summer. I say Sea-Tac hits 92F...Everett 88F...Olympia 94F...Portland/Vancouver 98F. Should be interesting.

This upcoming weekend I will be in Spokane visiting my sister and her new baby. Hopefully Spokane hits the century mark sometime this upcoming weekend.

Anthony

[andycottle]

A cloudy morning here followed by a partly cloudy afternoon with decreasing clouds and a mostly clear sky by early this evening. My high today was 72 with a low of 60. -- Andy

PS: Anthony... congrats on your sister having her baby! Is it a boy or girl?

[AnthonyC]

Thanks Andy!

It's kind of weird to be an uncle at the young age of 17. It's always been weird growing up, having a sister whose 11 years older than her younger brother. She was off to college when I was in the 2nd grade...I hardly saw her there after which sucked. Her new baby is a girl. Can't wait to see my new neice (sp?) this weekend.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Chalk up July as another above normal month. Not much above normal... but above normal nonetheless.

I think this winter will be more wet than cold. I am expecting some major Pineapple Express events this winter. I still think we will only have one cold snap with one good snow event.

A weak La Nina just developing now and the lack of an established PDO cold phase should prevent anything too extreme.

Just my opinion.

Sure wish we could get some summer rain. It is getting dry out there.

[snow_wizzard]

In the what it's worth department. I had a low of 46 this morning which is only the third time in 25 years of record keeping that I have recorded a minimum that low in the first week of August. These little, some would say insignificant, things just keep popping up this year. I still say, this is the transition year I have been expecting.

As for the warm July...it really wasn't. I will bet that many stations were below normal for the month, and Seattle was the exception. My monthly average was only 63.8 because of the cold nights, and very cool weather early in the month. Another important thing to note is that this year has had MANY more below normal days than last year. In fact, we could easily have several below normal months in the bag this year if it weren't for a few really warm days to spoil it. I suppose I take some pride in the fact that I actually did predict a warm July, and at least one station actually achieved that. At one point it looked impossible that anyone would average above normal.

As for the trough dropping down from the north next week, it is only a possibility. Many ensemble members still show it, but the both Canadian and GFS operational models have backed off on it. It would be very interesting to see what the 12z run yesterday was showing, to set a precedence if nothing else.

[AnthonyC]

Latest GFS models indicate a heatwave beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. A thermal trough is expected to develop. They show NO trough forming whatsoever.

It also looks like Thursday will see most areas in the low 90s.

WE FINALLY GOT OUR HEAT!

TT-SEA,

Rain?! Are you kidding me? We were complaining about all the rain just a few weeks ago and now you want more rain? Dude, I would be fine if we didn't see rain until the first week of September.

Anthony

[weather girl]

It's going to get bloody hot this week. If we see 100, it will be Thursday. Then sloooooowly cooling down from there. NCP is predicting a big cool down the following week, I think??? What will be interesting is to see if the heat re-builds in a big way again. I generally like the second half of August---we could easily be in for a couple of more hot streaks, though.

They're (the Portland weather forecasters) still playing up a warm dry September.

Brian - Dr. Taylor normally posts his forecast around mid-August. I haven't heard an exact date yet...but it should be soon.

Anthony - This is what was in the back of my head last week when I was talking about the days getting shorter...but I wasn't very articulate. Of course August can be miserable. But here's a diagram of what I was getting at that uses Chicago as an example. For us, I think it's around August 10th. Hope this works:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/walm2.htm

[andycottle]

Thanks Andy!

It's kind of weird to be an uncle at the young age of 17. It's always been weird growing up, having a sister whose 11 years older than her younger brother. She was off to college when I was in the 2nd grade...I hardly saw her there after which sucked. Her new baby is a girl. Can't wait to see my new neice (sp?) this weekend.

Anthony

Your welcome, Anthony. Hope you have a nice time with your sister and the baby. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

weathergirl,

Awesome article! Very interesting information.

I assume that's why Seattle's warmest/driest period is the last week of July/first week of August.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Anothony...if you are going by the 0z GFS, forget about it! That run is in complete disagreement with the ECMWF and most of the ensemble members of both the GFS and Canadian models. There is little chance of a heat wave next week. The new 6 - 10 day outlook and 8 - 14 day outlook are for below normal temps.

I would hate to say that your warm forecast bias is worse than my cold bias...LOL

The 12z run shows the same trough digging down from Canada that I have been talking about. In fact if the ensemble is right we could have a prolonged cool period later this month. That would actually surprise me a bit, but this year has been nothing but surprises!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_132m.htm

[snow_wizzard]

Weather girl...You were correct when you said the days are much shorter now than they were in late June. We are losing 25 minutes every 10 days now!

Funny how everyone gushes about how the days are so much longer in Feb than in Dec, but deny they are shorter in August than in June...the difference is the same.

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

Tomorrow through this weekend looks hot and dry for Western Washington...temperatures near 90F and plenty of sunshine. I consider this a heatwave for Western Washington...nothing extreme, but definitely far warmer than normal. When you get three, four days of 85F+ that's a heatwave for Western Washington.

As for next week, it's up in the air. The GFS continues to shift back and forth...you can't trust anything as of now. I say Monday and Tuesday will be above 85F...that's fairly warm. And another thing...I don't believe a significant trough will affect our region. I think ALL of August will be warm and dry. I do say by the middle of September, things will change to a more fall-like regime.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

There are so many signs that point to the fact that we have transitioned into a 1995 pattern.

Had we maintained a weak El Nino... we would have followed 1993 very closely.

The spring of 1995 was VERY wet in California with a weak El Nino... the summer of 1995 saw a transition to a weak La Nina. This resulted in some amazing heat across the country. Most of the country just baked that summer while the PNW enjoyed a fairly mild summer. Sound familiar??

The mid-1995 transition to a weak La Nina also resulted in a VERY active Atlantic hurricane season. It looks like a repeat...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8797726/


I really expect some amazing rainfall this winter accompanied by periods of very warm weather in PNW. There will likely be one period of cold weather but it will be short-lived. This winter will probably be remembered for serious flooding rather than cold and snow.

[AnthonyC]

HEAT ADVISORY?! Hahaha. We Western Washingtonians are weak! Two days of temperatures in the upper 80s warrants a heat advisory? Is this criteria set for JUST Western Washington?!

Here comes our second heatwave of the summer...first for the official start of summer. Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s both Thursday and Friday...a little cooler than originally thought for the weekend and next week. But after a string of 85F, 90F, 89F, 85F I think we'll need a break from the heat.

Here are my estimates for specific highs at Sea-Tac for the next four days; 86F, 91F, 88F, 84F.

BRING ON THE HEAT!

Anthony

[R-Dub]

BRING ON THE HEAT!

Anthony

NOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very hard to maintain green cool season grass in 90 degree heat, and I am responsible for 100 acres of the stuff. 75 degrees=perfect growing conditions! 90 degrees= misery for Randy

BRING ON THE RAIN AND 60'S!!!!!!!!!!! At least for a few days