ITCZ Wave 1008mb: RAMSDIS Floater Moved

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank all of you for the info

[mike815]

Yes that sal might slow progress of the wave. But the storm might be south enough to make it. We really might have something with this. I guess as it moves further west toward 50w we will know better about this storm. Do i smell irlene maybe maybe not lol

[mike815]

sry im new at this didnt mean to send this post 3 times lol

[brunota2003]

sry im new at this didnt mean to send this post 3 times lol

Yea, we can see that, lol

[wxmann_91]

The 18Z GFS has this making landfall in Halifax around 300 hr. Of course, I'm discounting that.

[clfenwi]

The other aspect of the time-distance problem is the timeline for potential development. If you buy the idea of nothing much happening until it gets to 40-45° then you buy the idea that things don't get interesting until Friday-Sunday (65-100 hours). For a couple of reasons, that time gets pushed back more as the northern component of the wave's movement increases.

Haven't looked at 00Z models yet, but the consensus of the 12Z models that depicted the wave was a heading that was more northwest than due west.

[Tropicswatcher]

Almost everytime this year computer models are having a northern bias in the movement of this systems. Of course im talking about the systems that are moving west already.

The Atlantic ridge had played with us. I think all cards are with the movement and strenght of our TD#8

[clfenwi]

Ok, checked out the 00Z CAN, UKMET and GFS runs.

Canadian isn't as enthusiastic as it had been, possibly because of the track it puts the system on. It puts the low across 20° North just after crossing 40° West... and moves nearly due north from there.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET is somewhat more westerly, but not very much so.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

GFS is latest in putting the low across 20&176; West (at about 50°).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132s.gif

Extended forecast doesn't take it too much further west

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204s.gif

TD8 is one player in the future setup. The player in front of it as the low that is to the northeast of it...

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_sfcbw.gif

The situation suggests a greatly eroded ridge that would leave a northerly path wide open for this wave.

[elysium]

This one may have a good chance of making it across. The models are weakening the trough and strengthening the ridge, so if we get development out of 10N and 35W, it should ride under the ridge building in at around 20N. initially, it may have occasion to head more northwesterly, but the consensus now seems to be that the ridge will be in place before this one gets away. As far as devellopment; it looks great. This one may put the season back on track. Behind it, whoa.....I've never seen it so productive along the wave train.

This season will make last season seem tame in comparison judging by how heated and stepped up we are looking this early in August. And that ridge! Wow! Stamp it 'Westward Ho!'.

Get rowdy out there people.We in business.

[cycloneye]

It looks pretty good as convection is increasing.Let's see down the road what happens.


Sat Imagery

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would have to agree with (not that it matters) elysium and cyclone eye on the early speculations. I say speculations but they are based on analysis of the patterns. In looking at the GFS it seems to have a better handle on the dry air pulling back in the SAL as seen on the WV loops. If the wave can get under that "tongue" of dry air this will likely develop given the low shear and high SST's. All it needs is moist air and the trend is toward that.

As far as direction I speculate that this will not hold westward track based on model consensus. We have not seen the synoptic patterns set up that way all year. watch for a break out from the ITCZ just past 40W. I think if it organizes into a cyclone it wants to go poleward.

Oh yeah....NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST...and that disclaimer stuff. Just my UNeducated guesswork.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I said this wave had a chance yesterday...And here it is with 51 posts today....Amazing...I don't buy the poleward stuff...Still way to early but is see the ridge building in strong behind soon to be harvey...

[drezee]

Convection has really increased this morning:

[cinlfla]

What is the position for this wave? Thanks

[drezee]

What is the position for this wave? Thanks

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N WITH A 1010 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N...MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

[BensonTCwatcher]

If the shear continues subsisde ahead of it, it's our next player. The dry air to the N is not inhibiting convection. Tomorrow mornings TWD will be interesting to see. Could disperse as these sometines do but the symmetry is notable. Also that lillte blob at 11N 35W is interesting too

[drezee]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[drezee]

[Scorpion]

Beautiful looking wave. On the other hand, pressure went up a mb. Storm cancel .

[Brent]

Looks like it's close to a depression already... Here we go with the African wave train.