We are in serious trouble if these reports pan out by the

[T-man]

Here in southeast La, I think I am in the worst possible position to receive a major storm this year, however, I will prepare for the worst and hope for the best.(pardon the cliche')

[Shoshana]

New Orleans has the website that tells people "What if"

Well Harris County (Houston) has one too. Interesting but really scary.

Video too.

Hurricane videos

'shana

[baygirl_1]

this is TOTALLY the year for New England! I can feel it

seriously though, the Gulf Stream has pulled SSTs up to 26-27 up to New Jersey and we havent even reached peak SSTs I dont believe... of course it really all depends on the track... If the Bermuda high would just give up for a bit... lol

Hey, my Mom is from New England and she remembers storms hitting up there. She tells the story about visiting my uncle on Long Island and as she was riding home with him, shingles were flying off roofs! Thankfully, no storms hit there during the time I was up there. (My experiences with hurricanes are all from the Gulf Coast.) So, it's possible.... I sure hope not for y'all... but it's possible.

[cajungal]

Ever since I was little enough to remember, I keep hearing all the media talking about New Orleans and "The Big One". Still has not happened yet. But, I have a feeling it may sometime in my lifetime. 29 years since I been on this planet and no "Big One" yet.

[Swimdude]

Ah, the New Orleans "BIG ONE"... I'm tired of hearing about it, to be honest. Everyone knows it's coming. Or maybe i'm just grouchy tonight... But no one knows when. And of course it'll happen. Might be a month from now. Might be in 400 years.

[Stormtrack]

The glass that was broken out in Houston from Alicia was not due to wind but was from gravel from rooftops. Can anybody explain how the gravel got up there?

[Shoshana]

The gravel was there as part of the roof. Flat roofs are commonly roofed with tar and gravel. They just didn't anticipate Alicia coming along and shotgunning the gravel into the glass buildings. Supposedy, this problem has been fixed...

[skysummit]

With this kind of prediction, I think everyone who's been lucking out the past few years, may all get their turn this season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It doesn't take a major cane to cause serious damage. Jeanne was cat 2/cat 1 by the time it crossed into central florida, but still did some serious damage to the roofs of some condominiums in North Pinellas. Also Polk County experienced a lot of damage from a Cat 2 Jeanne. Of course the east coastal point of landfall had by far the worst damage of the storm, but remember it doesn't take a major cane to cause serious damage.

[Hurricaneman]

A cat 3 or higher up here in the northeast would likely be more damaging than andrew, especially if it did hit NYC

[vbhoutex]

Ah, the New Orleans "BIG ONE"... I'm tired of hearing about it, to be honest. Everyone knows it's coming. Or maybe i'm just grouchy tonight... But no one knows when. And of course it'll happen. Might be a month from now. Might be in 400 years.

That holds true for every inch of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

[Astro_man92]

lets see 14 more storms, hmm, there is a good possibility that Tampa's time has run, and most of the buildings in downtown are made of glass..

Remember Alicia and what it did in Houston?

what about new york that is so dumb it isn't even funny why'd I bring that up lol but it is possible and I think it is even possible for Washington D.C. to get hit by a hurricane. Isn't it

[ncbird]

sigh... sure hope they are wrong.

[TampaFl]

Tampa is not the only sitting duck. According to one of those TWC specials, there are 5 places in the US that if a major hurricane hit, the damage could be double, if not triple, the damage caused by hurricane Andrew.

Tampa/St. Pete area
New Orleans
New York City
Miami
Houston/Galveston area

We were extremely luck with Andrew and in the 2004 hurricane season that these areas weren't hit. In fact, we've been extremely lucky. One day one of these cities will be wiped out. We won't be lucky forever.

And these areas aren't any more prone to wind; the catastrophe would be from the surge.

Here is a list from Insure.com on the top 10 worst cities for an extreme hurricane to hit.

http://info.insure.com/home/disaster/worsthurricane.html

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike

By Vicki Lankarge
Insure.com
Researchers say it's only a matter of time before another catastrophic hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) slams into our coastline. The problem is that when it does strike, the potential for cataclysmic financial loss has grown exponentially with the increase in the nation's population and accumulation of wealth on the coastline.

Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike
Rank Location Possible insured losses* Potential total economic losses**
1 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. $61.3 billion $122.6 billion
2 New York City, N.Y. $26.5 billion $53
billion
3 Tampa/St. Petersburg, Fla. $25.1 billion $50
billion
4 Houston/Galveston, Texas $16.8 billion $33.6
billion
5 New Orleans, La. $8.4 billion $16.8
billion
6 Mobile, Ala. $6.0 billion $12
billion
7 Boston, Mass. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
8 Biloxi/Gulfport, Miss. $5.1 billion $10.2
billion
9 Myrtle Beach, S.C. $4.3 billion $8.6
billion
10 Norfolk, Va. $3.9 billion $7.8
billion
Sources: *AIR Worldwide Corp.
**insure.com

When inflation and increases in coastal population and wealth are taken into account, Hurricane Andrew's 1992 total losses of $26 billion would cost in excess of $41 billion today, according to Christopher Landsea, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

By comparison, the total economic losses caused by the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 are currently estimated to exceed $80 billion.

"A worst-case scenario hurricane has the potential to cause $100 billion in economic losses," says Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado.


Most vulnerable cities
Researchers say the greatest losses from a direct strike of an extreme hurricane would occur in heavily populated coastal cities and surrounding communities. The worst place in the United States for an extreme hurricane to strike is the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, according to AIR Worldwide Corp., a catastrophe-modeling and weather-risk management company.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's a real possibility the United States could suffer two $100 billion losses at once.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A severe hurricane striking this heavily populated region, just north of where Andrew struck in 1992, could produce insured losses of more than $60 billion and total economic losses could exceed $122 million, double the amount of insured losses.

When AIR looks at the projected losses from nearly worst-case hurricane scenarios (the most severe storm in every 1,000 years to strike a particular location), at $26.5 billion New York captures the No. 2 spot in projected insured losses, followed by Tampa/St Petersburg ($25.1 billion), Houston/Galveston ($16.8), and New Orleans ($8.4 billion).

According to Landsea, the worst-case "triple-whammy scenario" would be one in which a Category 5 hurricane crashes directly into Miami, veers off, and then slams into New Orleans, causing severe flooding all along the Gulf Coast before losing its punch. If this scenario were to occur, there's a real possibility the United States could suffer two $100 billion losses at once.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is constantly preparing for disasters and the agency is hard at work studying catastrophes, such as extreme hurricanes and other cataclysmic events on the scale of Sept. 11. FEMA says it is particularly concerned with evacuation plans to minimize the loss of life.

The significant decrease in deaths due to hurricanes is one of the nation's greatest public safety successes, says Landsea. "We used to measure deaths in the hundreds and thousands."

The Galveston, Texas, hurricane of 1900 killed an estimated 8,000 people at the turn of the century. By comparison, 23 people lost their lives in Hurricane Andrew. Researchers attribute the significant decrease in deaths despite a hefty increase in population to a variety of factors, including better building codes, improved weather forecasting, and early warning systems for the public.


Most damaging hurricanes
By accounting for inflation and increases in coastal population and wealth, Pielke and Landsea say a 1926 unnamed Category 4 hurricane that struck Southeast Florida and then made landfall in Alabama actually surpasses Hurricane Andrew as the nation's most devastating hurricane when they compare all hurricane losses adjusted to 2002 dollars.

Although it was not Florida's most powerful storm, they say the 1926 hurricane was the most powerful to strike Miami directly. Its winds averaged 76 mph for 24 hours. Damages from the hurricane reached $115 million (in 1926 dollars) and more than 240 people died. According to Pielke and Landsea, if a hurricane of that magnitude were to strike Miami today, it would be the costliest on record, with an estimated $80 billion in damage.

Top 10 most damaging hurricanes, 1900-2002
Hurricane Year Category Damage (in 2002 dollars)
Unnamed (SE Fla./Ala.) 1926 4 $90.6 billion
Andrew (SE Fla.) 1992 5 $41.4 billion
Unnamed (N. Texas) 1900 4 $33.3 billion
Unnamed (N. Texas) 1915 4 $28.2 billion
Unnamed (SW Florida) 1944 3 $21.1 billion
Unnamed (New England) 1938 3 $20.8 billion
Unnamed (SE Fla.) 1928 4 $17.2 billion
Betsy (SE Fla./La.) 1965 3 $15.5 billion
Donna (Fla./E U.S.) 1960 4 $15.1 billion
Camille (Miss./La./Va.) 1969 5 $13.7 billion
Source: Roger Pielke, Jr. and Christopher Landsea



Last updated Aug. 29, 2002
Related information:
10 years later, Hurricane Andrew would cost twice as muchThe Saffir-Simpson hurricane scaleLifesaving tips for hurricane season

[Thunder44]

had Charley have been alrger and came in at 130-135KT, Orlando may have been wiped out since Charley hit the center of the city. Instead of a cat 1, it may have still been a cat 3

If Orlando has a Cat 3, there maybe major damage, but I doubt it would wipe the city out.

[KWT]

I don't believe what insure says.Any strike,however unlikely from a major on New-york would do way more damage and loss of money then a strike anywhere else in the country,although both miami and NO strike would also cause massive amounts of damage.

The reason for this is what damage it would do to the stock exchange,with the city a mess no-one will get into work(think 9/11,but on a bigger scale)with could cause some massive daamge to the econmany,way more then any other hurricane in the past I believe.

In fact a little example of what can happen when major storms hit large buisness sectors,in 1987 a very powerful depression hit the south-east of England,with gusts in London of 90mph.It downed 17 million trees and stopped people from working.Becasue of that the markets suffered massive loses and we suffered black monday and plunged the U.K into 5 years or so of recession.It was estimated the storm caused about 100 billion pounds worth of damage overall.

Now imagine a cat-3 hitting New-york,with sustained winds of say 115-120mph and the mess that it would cause to the city,not to mention the very dangerous surge that would occur,at the very least when all things over,several hundred billions dollars worth of damage would occur,if not into the trillions.

[Mac]

This conversation is interesting, but it would probably be more meaningful to me if I had the information regarding NOAA's predictions.

Does anybody have a link?

Thanks.

[alicia-w]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69602

[Mac]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69602

Thank you!

[Patrick99]

What's the likelihood of a Category 3 or higher scoring a direct hit on the New York City area? It can't be very high. Unless there are major climate changes, I couldn't imagine a 5, or even a 4, ever hitting NYC.

Comparatively, the possibility of a Cat. 5 hitting Miami, FTL, or WPB would be quite large, I'd think.