Major Hurricane in New York...

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[Hurricaneman]

Who knows when this scenerio will pan out, I would hate it

[Astro_man92]

Derek Orrt, who I count as a good friend, mentioned what horror would be done if a major hurricane (3, 4, or 5) would hit New York.

I have put together the nightmare image of a category 4 hitting in New York, but For this scenario, let's name this Hurricane Beryl.

But, many say: NO WAY A STORM COULD STAY A CATEGORY 4 THAT LONG! Well, let's say this was the track of Hurricane Beryl:


Landfall:



TALKING POINTS:

Originally expected to hit Cape Cod as a 115 mph storm, nobody in NYC is prepared.

Surge is 15-20 feet on Coney Island.

Storm crosses New York Bay and makes second landfall near: Long Island, NY still holding at 135 mph sustained.

Storm then moves over the east river (DIRECTLY OVER THE BROOKLIN BRIDGE).

The eye moves directly over Chinatown, and the eastern eyewall moves over the city. Winds of 135-140 mph with gusts 160-165 mph occur in the eye and the eyewall.

Beryl's eyewall collapses around Manhattan and the storm weakens to a category 1 only four hours after landfall.

WELL...REAL OR NOT...THAT COULD HAPPEN...

It took me an hour to make this post...so let's start a good topic on this.

shouldn't the pressure be lower for those winds

[WXFIEND]

now this thread is REALLY scaring me!



I guess being a weather weenie and knowing the chances ahead of time before the media REALLY starts screaming would come in handy a LOT if this were to occur...

[wxmann_91]

Derek Orrt, who I count as a good friend, mentioned what horror would be done if a major hurricane (3, 4, or 5) would hit New York.

I have put together the nightmare image of a category 4 hitting in New York, but For this scenario, let's name this Hurricane Beryl.

But, many say: NO WAY A STORM COULD STAY A CATEGORY 4 THAT LONG! Well, let's say this was the track of Hurricane Beryl:
...

Landfall:
...


TALKING POINTS:

Originally expected to hit Cape Cod as a 115 mph storm, nobody in NYC is prepared.

Surge is 15-20 feet on Coney Island.

Storm crosses New York Bay and makes second landfall near: Long Island, NY still holding at 135 mph sustained.

Storm then moves over the east river (DIRECTLY OVER THE BROOKLIN BRIDGE).

The eye moves directly over Chinatown, and the eastern eyewall moves over the city. Winds of 135-140 mph with gusts 160-165 mph occur in the eye and the eyewall.

Beryl's eyewall collapses around Manhattan and the storm weakens to a category 1 only four hours after landfall.

WELL...REAL OR NOT...THAT COULD HAPPEN...

It took me an hour to make this post...so let's start a good topic on this.

shouldn't the pressure be lower for those winds

The latitude is high so that pressure could be possible, still, good point, the theoretical Beryl should have a pressure lower than 950...but still, this is made up, so hey, it doesn't matter, I don't care.

[Hurricaneman]

Anything is possible

[george_r_1961]

Actually, I believe it is more likely for a late September or October storm to give the doomsday scenario to NYC than earlier in the seaosn. The reason for this is that the trough could become negatively tilted during these months, and actually draw the storm into the coast instead of keeping it out to sea

Isnt that what happened with Isabel..or at least was it a contributing factor?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Tchp is high enough right now to make a cat5 into the cape around 36 north.

[angelwing]

Well, if I figure this out right, if such a storm hti Northern NJ, then forget me going to work at McGuire AFB-rt 29 would be flooded put and since I live a few block away from the Delaware River in Phila, that also would be high, probaly much higher than wth Floyd. State road would definetely be under water, not to mention route 13 and other flooding we get around here. The creek right behind my apartment complex was in the first floor or the buildings here during Floyd, so this definelty might put them under water, possibly to the 3rd floor.

[Hurricaneman]

This would be possibly the worst scenerio that could happen

[Radar]

Without a doubt this is this the worse case scenario for many reasons. But what scares me the most is the lack of preparedness by the residents of NYC. I have a dear friend Kelly who lives on Long Island and recently while speaking to her I asked her about her what she was doing to prepare for a Hurricane since this has been such a bad season thus far.

Imagine my surprise when she said: "Nothing"

She believes they are "hurricane proof" that far North and hardly anyone there prepares for hurricanes like they do in the Southern East Coast and Gulf of Mexico States. Just imagine the mass panic that would take place with millions of people trying to prepare all at once.

Alot of people in NYC and the surrounding area couldnt leave because they rely on public transportation and dont have access to automobiles.

Many wouldn't leave just out of pure stubborness and the feeling they are not susceptible to hurricanes in their area.

Many would stay in high rises, thinking they are safe from flood waters only to have the building they are in collapse from the wind.

Without a doubt this would be death track WHEN a hurricane does track it's way to NYC and the surrounding area!

[Hurricaneman]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hurricane Edna in 1954 had a pressure of 956 mb (arguably it may have been even lower) East of Cap Cod (quite a bit further North-East than the theory storm), thus it is easily possible.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

at that latitude, pressures would need to be significantly lower than further south as the storms become all spread out. 950 likely would only support a cat 2 up there. Gloria at 961 only supported strong TS or cat 1 winds at LI

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not sure I follow you. I do not live in NS, but I know that Juan was a cat. 2 with 972 mb (about the same as more southern locals) pressure at landfall.
Also Gerda in 1969 only had a 979 mb pressure at landfall on the Gulf of Maine, but was still a border line cat. 2.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

I doubt that based upon the reanalysis that Gerda will be kept as a 2. It was probably a 2 due to pressure alone (pressure until Dr Sheets became the NHC director was what determined SS classification).

Juan at 972 likely would have supported winds of 90-95KT farther south

[pete807]

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html

Some of the key observations from the storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:

Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.

The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A ship in the Southern Gulf of Maine actually reported peak wind gusts of 140 mph about two hours before Gerda made landfall. Of course it could have weakened below cat. 2 by then, but I doubt it.


Hurricane Michael in 2000 was another interesting storm. Even though it passed directly over the cold Labrador Current, it still maintained cat. 2 intensity. Of course this was helped by the phasing of the storm system with a shortwave to it's west. Such extratropical transition mechanics can occur in more Northern latitudes, and are (like eyewall replacement cycles) very hard to forecast.





Hybridstorm_November2001

[WeatherNole]

I didn't see this mentioned elsewhere, but Mark Sudduth made a neat little animation of what the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel might look like following a Cat 2 hit.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/brooklyn.shtml

Also - based on SLOSH model simulations, the highest POTENTIAL storm surge of the all the examined basins along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts is in Apalachee Bay - just south of Tallahassee, where it could reach 38 feet.

Yeah.

Yikes.

Mike

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[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The tchp this year is hot enough to hold a cat5 intill 37 north or just off the outter banks. A fast moving cat5 would make it to New york as a weak cat4. You went to know the fastest way to make America go from the most powerful country on earth to a third world country. Thats it...A cat4 hurricane into new york would send America back 100 years.