ITCZ Wave 1008mb: RAMSDIS Floater Moved

[dgparent]

I sincerely hope you all have become close friends with Starbucks cause from now on we aint gonna get much sleep. I warned ya'll....

<RICKY>

I am a Tim Horton's man myself just can't get it down here in NC yet

[clfenwi]

12Z models are unchanged in the big picture sense.

Canadian and UKMET continue to offer similar scenarios.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

GFS brings the low across 20° North sooner than the previous run, but still a bit further west than the others.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168s.gif

[jasons2k]

Here's a McIdas image from 15Z with 1 deg lat/lon lines plotted. It needs to move another 3-4 deg west so that it shows up fullly on the northern hemisphere satellite shots and not just the full disks.

OK, from that perspective it looks like it is definately getting some banding and organizing. Might be time to restock the coffee.

How do you take your coffee? Cuz, it's a long way til November...

Heard that!

Lots of sugar! I need the caffeine and the sugar rush!

[wxcrazytwo]

Here's a McIdas image from 15Z with 1 deg lat/lon lines plotted. It needs to move another 3-4 deg west so that it shows up fullly on the northern hemisphere satellite shots and not just the full disks.

OK, from that perspective it looks like it is definately getting some banding and organizing. Might be time to restock the coffee.

How do you take your coffee? Cuz, it's a long way til November...

Heard that!

Lots of sugar! I need the caffeine and the sugar rush!

drink Jolt Cola, because like this season will pan out, it will make you do snow angels in the dirt..

[cycloneye]

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 96 HOURS
ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME LATITUDE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 28.5W...AND
IN CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.

[wxman57]

Ok, enough images for a 3-image McIdas loop now. It's fairly large so here's the link:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloop.gif

[wxcrazytwo]

How purty... Can I pet it..

[WeatherEmperor]

How purty... Can I pet it..

lol very funny.

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

Wonder if the forecaster that wrote the afternoon TWD meant to write GFDL instead of GFS...

Here's the model comparision of the Canadian, GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models for this wave:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 2/M36.html

(first row of images is the consensus of the four models)

[Ivanhater]

can anyone tell me why this is not an invest yet??? i thought invest meant an area of interest, ive seen invests for a lot less organized waves and this one certainly deserves at LEAST an invest

[superfly]

The convection is looking really good on this thing.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

[Hurricanehink]

Looking good. I'll bet the TWO says "The tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde islands has become much better organized and has the potential to become a Tropical Depression over the next day or so."
Invest is imminent. This could be the next one. Will it follow the "I" streak?

[johngaltfla]

I sincerely hope you all have become close friends with Starbucks cause from now on we aint gonna get much sleep. I warned ya'll....

<RICKY>

I am a Tim Horton's man myself just can't get it down here in NC yet

Oh man, that's the one thing from Toronto I miss the most. If Tim Horton would just open up here in Florida.

Now back to the Maxwell House, caffeine gum, and NoDoz.

[johngaltfla]

can anyone tell me why this is not an invest yet??? i thought invest meant an area of interest, ive seen invests for a lot less organized waves and this one certainly deserves at LEAST an invest

Coffee break. I'll bet it's an invest by 2000 EDT/0000 UTC.

[Shoshana]

can anyone tell me why this is not an invest yet??? i thought invest meant an area of interest, ive seen invests for a lot less organized waves and this one certainly deserves at LEAST an invest

Coffee break. I'll bet it's an invest by 2000 EDT/0000 UTC.

Might be TD 9 by then...

'shana

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 032117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 375 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[bvigal]

Can anyone tell me how the ngp has this thing sitting in basically the same place after 132hrs? Or am I misreading the model? How can any model initialize something as static for 5 days?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/30.html

---never mind, I see where I boo-boo'd.

[dwg71]

I like WNW movement... I would think the further north it gets the better chance of it affecting the least amount of people.

[drezee]

latest image: