Dr Grays August Update=20/10/6

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... aug05.html

Really no surprise with his big upgrade.But read the whole report as there are interesting things there.Read the abstract.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, due to this incredible active season so far, could you let us update our forecasts? Because I think we all sub-estimated the 2005 season.

[HURAKAN]

VERY INTERESTING:

"This is the highest seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity we have ever made."

[cycloneye]

VERY INTERESTING:

"This is the highest seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity we have ever made."

That sentence speaks volumes.

[feederband]

Luis, due to this incredible active season so far, could you let us update our forecasts? Because I think we all sub-estimated the 2005 season.

It would be interesting to see what kind of new numbers we would come up with...

[Brent]

Landfall chances, sheesh.

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 58% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas

[southerngale]

VERY INTERESTING:

"This is the highest seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity we have ever made."

After reading it, that's what I was about to quote here. Wow!

Buckle up everyone...we're in for a wild ride.

[storms in NC]

so from want I have read the east coast is NOT safe like most thought.

[x-y-no]

so from want I have read the east coast is NOT safe like most thought.

Uhhh ... who suggested that? Certainly not "most" here ...

[Brent]

so from want I have read the east coast is NOT safe like most thought.

No one is ever safe...

The entire coastline has an above average chance of a landfall this year.

[storms in NC]

so from want I have read the east coast is NOT safe like most thought.

No one is ever safe...

The entire coastline has an above average chance of a landfall this year.

Hey long time no see. Sorry I should have said some not most.
as alway you do a good job

[sweetpea]

Very scary. Almost makes me want to run out and stock up now. I have only partially stocked up.

[storms in NC]

I never do stock up till I know for sure.then we cook for two days. Last time the water got the food. We left in a boat.

[cycloneye]

POST-1 AUGUST PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 58% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas


From the docs report.

Scsry that all the areas the % of landfalls is ahead of the average.

[sweetpea]

I like to do it early-this way everything you want to get you can. And you don't fight the crowds. Last year I seen two little old ladies fighting over a loaf of bread. Don't want to deal with that.

[P.K.]

Really no surprise with his big upgrade.

Indeed, with this quick start to the season it was bound to happen. Luis the latest TSR forecast is also due out on Friday, I can see a big upgrade there as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

And so it begins.

<RICKY>

[alicia-w]

i think we just accelerated our move back to AZ. This is ridiculous. our houses are gonna rot and fall down around our ears if this keeps up.

[HurricaneGirl]

No WAY!!

[WeatherEmperor]

:eek: No WAY!!

better believe it.

<RICKY>