Dr Grays August Update=20/10/6

[HurricaneGirl]

:eek: No WAY!!

better believe it.

<RICKY>

Holy Crap!!

[dwg71]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

[WeatherEmperor]

:eek: No WAY!!

better believe it.

<RICKY>

Holy Crap!!

You all ready to go Hurricanegirl??

<RICKY>

[HurricaneGirl]

I'm ready to move back to Michigan!!

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm ready to move back to Michigan!!

well after this season i got a feeling many of us are gonna wanna move away from here too. lol

<RICKY>

[wx247]

Interesting analysis, that's for sure.

[feederband]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

Wasn't Dennis a major at landfall ?

[dwg71]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

Wasn't Dennis a major at landfall ?

I'm referring to this point forward...

[Galvestongirl]

well, I tried to read it.....but, it was way over my head....'bout the only thing i got from it was........watch out east coast, your in for a ride.

[Frank2]

Let's not forget the not-so-fine print in Section 9:

Our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which precede comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most US coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not insure that hurricanes will not come ashore. Regardless of how active the 2005 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the US coastline or the Caribbean Basin and do much damage.

The above is what I've been mentioning elsewhere - that while this may indeed be a record season, aside from Dennis and Emily, we may not see any other landfalling hurricanes - but it will still be considered a record season - statistically.

Unfortunately, the media often does not make this clear, allowing the public to believe that every system that forms will end up making landfall as a major hurricane - not true.

Frank

[floridahurricaneguy]

Well that basically confirms a extremely active season. I still think NOAA and him are right on target. The chance of at least one major hitting the usa is high so i bet it will happen if not more then one.

Matt

[floridahurricaneguy]

Let's not forget the not-so-fine print in Section 9:

Our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which precede comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most US coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not insure that hurricanes will not come ashore. Regardless of how active the 2005 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the US coastline or the Caribbean Basin and do much damage.

The above is what I've been mentioning elsewhere - that while this may indeed be a record season, aside from Dennis and Emily, we may not see any other landfalling hurricanes - but it will still be considered a record season - statistically.

Unfortunately, the media often does not make this clear, allowing the public to believe that every system that forms will end up making landfall as a major hurricane - not true.

Frank

Frank,

Are you a hurricane expert or meterologists? I didnt think you were but I could be wrong. Every main weather source is figuring a bad season with several landfalls? What do you get about that? We cant live in denial, we just need to be prepared.

Matt

[seaswing]

Was I reading this right??? does it sound like Florida is under the scope again????

[HurriCat]

I'm hearing that ol' Van Halen tune: "Dead on Arr-iiii-val" Yeah, that would be Florida from the looks of it! Another bit of the song that applies: "Jury looked at me and said Out-ta Luck".

[WeatherEmperor]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

OK!!!!! Floridians....calm down....there is nothing iminent...lol...i know yall got hammered last year. but, its cool...

[Ivanhater]

well im going to go out on a "limb" here and say the u.s. will have more than 1 major hurricane strike....call me crazy

[hurricanetrack]

I am just wondering what CSU thinks about Storm2k digging up this data without it being officially released as of yet. I know it's on their server, but it is not on their web page- at least not that I can see. It is the equivalent of leaking information in my opinion. I would just be careful about doing that since no one at CSU has issued a press release or the like saying that Dr. Gray has indeed raised his forecast numbers.

Just playing it safe here in bringing this up- wouldn't want someone sending a cease and desist order to S2k....with a "Sincerely, Dr. William Gray" on it....

[cycloneye]

I am just wondering what CSU thinks about Storm2k digging up this data without it being officially released as of yet. I know it's on their server, but it is not on their web page- at least not that I can see. It is the equivalent of leaking information in my opinion. I would just be careful about doing that since no one at CSU has issed a press release or the like saying that Dr. Gray has indeed raised his forecast numbers.

Just playing it safe here in bringing this up- wouldn't want someone sending a cease and desist order to S2k....with a "Sincerely, Dr. William Gray" on it....

Mark I found it here.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/

I haved found out that in there they have it with a couple of days ahead of release to his site that happened in April and May.

[skysummit]

Florida is always under the scope...just like the other thousands of miles of tropical coastland. It's just a little more obvious for you because you stick out into the water like a sore thumb.