TS Harvey Advisories

[DoctorHurricane2003]

oops at the NHC on that one....lol

[Brent]

Whoops.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

60mph now shoot. I expected this kind of systems to be stronger.

[gkrangers]

923
WTNT43 KNHC 031830
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITY FOR HARVEY...AND TO UPDATE THE WIND RADII.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 62 KT AT 1200 FT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB. THE 62 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IN FACT
THE FLIGHT CREW MADE A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1800Z 30.9N 67.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 31.8N 66.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.6N 64.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 33.3N 61.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT

[x-y-no]

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITY FOR HARVEY...AND TO UPDATE THE WIND RADII.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 62 KT AT 1200 FT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB. THE 62 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IN FACT
THE FLIGHT CREW MADE A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Well, that answers my query in the recon thread - SE quadrant. Guess that makes sense, given the motion.

[HURAKAN]

Should Bermuda issue Hurricane Watch or Warning?

[clfenwi]

844
WHXX01 KWBC 031841
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY (AL082005) ON 20050803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050803 1800 050804 0600 050804 1800 050805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.9N 67.7W 32.0N 65.2W 32.8N 62.4W 33.9N 59.6W
BAMM 30.9N 67.7W 31.7N 66.2W 31.6N 64.4W 31.2N 63.9W
A98E 30.9N 67.7W 32.1N 65.8W 32.9N 63.0W 33.8N 60.7W
LBAR 30.9N 67.7W 31.8N 65.6W 32.9N 63.5W 34.3N 61.1W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 59KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050805 1800 050806 1800 050807 1800 050808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.1N 56.5W 37.5N 52.7W 40.9N 46.0W 42.2N 37.6W
BAMM 31.0N 64.0W 31.9N 64.9W 33.5N 64.5W 34.0N 63.4W
A98E 34.8N 58.7W 37.5N 56.1W 41.1N 49.2W 44.0N 40.6W
LBAR 35.8N 58.3W 40.1N 52.0W 44.4N 42.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 52KTS 42KTS 30KTS
DSHP 58KTS 52KTS 42KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.9N LONCUR = 67.7W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 68.6W DIRM12 = 16DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 28.2N LONM24 = 68.8W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 0NM

[x-y-no]

Should Bermuda issue Hurricane Watch or Warning?

Seems to me a hurricane warning would be warranted at this point. Another 15mph of intensification certainly seems possible.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...INDICATING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY SHOULD PASS
VERY NEAR BERMUDA THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE PASSING BY BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N... 67.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
2100Z WED AUG 03 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...INDICATING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 67.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 67.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 67.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.8N 65.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.5N 63.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 37.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

644
WTNT43 KNHC 032030
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH HARVEY...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 998 MB. THERE IS NOW A SMALL
CONVECTIVE BURST GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF LOW-SHEAR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HARVEY TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
36-48 HOURS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
060/9. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM BEHIND FOR THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS COULD CAUSE HARVEY TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 31.1N 67.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.8N 65.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 32.5N 63.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 59.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 57.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 37.5N 52.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 47.0W 30 KT

[storms in NC]

Don't be surprised if HARVEY makes a turn to the east then to the south east then to the south. I know it is to go ENE but things can happen

[Brent]

Don't be surprised if HARVEY makes a turn to the east then to the south east then to the south. I know it is to go ENE but things can happen

It's already moving ENE...

[storm4u]

Don't be surprised if HARVEY makes a turn to the east then to the south east then to the south. I know it is to go ENE but things can happen

It's already moving ENE...

I would not be surprised to see this thing loop!! Ive been watching!

[Hurricaneman]

Everything else has happened, so I wouldnt be suprised with any movement

[Stratusxpeye]

I don't agree completely on the loop. Harvey will move east north east than more northly I belive anyway not an official forecast. But we'll hav eto wait and see.

[WindRunner]

I don't agree completely on the loop. Harvey will move east north east than more northly I belive anyway not an official forecast. But we'll hav eto wait and see.

Actually, that is the official forecast.

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 032337
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...HARVEY HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE PASSING BY BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 66.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL STORM     HARVEY (AL082005) ON 20050804  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050804  0000   050804  1200   050805  0000   050805  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.3N  66.4W   32.7N  63.6W   33.8N  60.6W   35.1N  57.2W
  BAMM    31.3N  66.4W   32.2N  64.4W   32.2N  62.7W   32.2N  61.9W
  A98E    31.3N  66.4W   32.5N  64.5W   33.2N  62.1W   35.0N  60.8W
  LBAR    31.3N  66.4W   32.5N  64.3W   33.8N  62.2W   35.3N  59.6W
  SHIP        50KTS          53KTS          56KTS          57KTS
  DSHP        50KTS          53KTS          56KTS          57KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050806  0000   050807  0000   050808  0000   050809  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    36.0N  53.3W   36.4N  49.2W   37.7N  45.2W   38.0N  40.1W
  BAMM    32.2N  61.8W   33.6N  61.3W   34.0N  57.8W   32.9N  55.4W
  A98E    36.2N  59.5W   39.8N  54.0W   44.4N  40.7W   43.6N  29.1W
  LBAR    36.9N  56.4W   41.2N  49.1W   44.7N  38.4W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        56KTS          51KTS          44KTS          29KTS
  DSHP        56KTS          51KTS          44KTS          29KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  31.3N LONCUR =  66.4W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  30.4N LONM12 =  68.2W DIRM12 =  29DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  28.9N LONM24 =  68.7W
  WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   45KT
  CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =   0NM

[senorpepr]

Tropical Storm Harvey (08L / 08L) (04/0000Z)
Position: 31.3°N 66.4°W (125 miles SW from Hamilton, Bermuda)
Movement: NE at 10 mph
Winds: 60 mph
Pressure: 998 mb / 29.47''
Dvorak Est: T2.5/2.5