Dr Grays August Update=20/10/6

[dwg71]

Was I reading this right??? does it sound like Florida is under the scope again????

Florida has had more landfalling TC than any other state, so yes they are always under the gun.

Activity does not mean US landfall is going to be greatly increased.

1933 - 4 US landfalling Hurricanes. 19%
1995 - 3 US landfalling Hurricanes. 15.8%
2005 - 1 US landfalling Hurricane. 12.5%

2004 - 5 US landfalling Hurricanes with 15 Named Storms 33%

[hurricanetrack]

I hear ya- a lot of us know how to find things on servers, but I am just playing alarmist here in case someone from CSU gets mad that Storm2k made it "official" when indeed it is not- I guess. I just don't want there to be any nasty surprises for all of us here in case this was an issue with CSU.

Probably no harm at all....just being careful...or a weenie...

[kevin]

I agree, everyone should move away from Florida, especially the yanks!

[cycloneye]

I hear ya- a lot of us know how to find things on servers, but I am just playing alarmist here in case someone from CSU gets mad that Storm2k made it "official" when indeed it is not- I guess. I just don't want there to be any nasty surprises for all of us here in case this was an issue with CSU.

Probably no harm at all....just being careful...or a weenie...

I remember that in the May release earlier than when it was supposed to OLA was the one who posted it here then I was like you saying the same thing but in the end nothing occured and eventually that early release was the official one at may 31.

[vbhoutex]

Let's not forget the not-so-fine print in Section 9:

Our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which precede comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most US coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not insure that hurricanes will not come ashore. Regardless of how active the 2005 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the US coastline or the Caribbean Basin and do much damage.

The above is what I've been mentioning elsewhere - that while this may indeed be a record season, aside from Dennis and Emily, we may not see any other landfalling hurricanes - but it will still be considered a record season - statistically.

Unfortunately, the media often does not make this clear, allowing the public to believe that every system that forms will end up making landfall as a major hurricane - not true.

Frank

Are you questioning the fact that Dr. Gray calls for more landfalls? I understand what you are saying here, but trying to figure out where you are going with it(I think).

And you are unfortunately all too correct about the media. It is normally anything for a good hype!!

[Frank2]

Re: floridahurricaneguy's post

Without giving away too much information in a public forum, I was blessed to have worked for some of the best in tropical meteorology for over 10 years, and, for more than a few atmospheric scientists who were not in favor of the sensationalism that very long-term forecasting brings.

What is important to note here is the fact that a number of individuals who I worked for were more skilled in the "feel" of a season, rather than solely trusting on what was being told in theory. While they were highly skilled scientists, they were often very accurate in seeing the whole picture, and the fact that while one or two indicators might favor hurricane development, others would also interact to negate the issue, and is why most believed that the art of long-term forecasting (weeks or months in advance), to be highly unreliable for this very reason - that the Earth's atmosphere was far too complex and unpredictable to make such a forecast with any level of confidence. Unfortunately, NOAA stated just yesterday that their current forecast was accurate to within 95% - we'll see if they regret this comment.

What troubles me is the possibility that the season will either backfire and be much slower than normal, destroying the credibility of meteorologists across the board, or, and this is more of a distinct possibility, that, as mentioned by Dr. Gray's team, the season will be busy, but, will either feature a small number, or no other landfalling systems, again destroying the public's confidence in what has already been mentioned.

While the pattern does favor another busy season, the fine print above written by Dr. Gray's team clearly states (though some here seem to ignore it), that the chance of a given location (or state) seeing a landfalling hurricane is low, from year to year - even during an active season.

Frank

[dwg71]

Let's not forget the not-so-fine print in Section 9:

Our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which precede comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most US coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not insure that hurricanes will not come ashore. Regardless of how active the 2005 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the US coastline or the Caribbean Basin and do much damage.

The above is what I've been mentioning elsewhere - that while this may indeed be a record season, aside from Dennis and Emily, we may not see any other landfalling hurricanes - but it will still be considered a record season - statistically.

Unfortunately, the media often does not make this clear, allowing the public to believe that every system that forms will end up making landfall as a major hurricane - not true.

Frank

Are you questioning the fact that Dr. Gray calls for more landfalls? I understand what you are saying here, but trying to figure out where you are going with it(I think).

No, I dont think he is doing that at all and Dr. Gray didn't call for more landfall. He said that the percentages were greater than in previous years, but specifically does not make any landfall predictions.

His point is valid. Also see stats above about prior busy years of 33 and 95.

[Cookiely]

Re: floridahurricaneguy's post

Without giving away too much information in a public forum, I was blessed to have worked for some of the best in tropical meteorology for over 10 years, and, for more than a few atmospheric scientists who were not in favor of the sensationalism that very long-term forecasting brings.

What is important to note here is the fact that a number of individuals who I worked for were more skilled in the "feel" of a season, rather than solely trusting on what was being told in theory. While they were highly skilled scientists, they were often very accurate in seeing the whole picture, and the fact that while one or two indicators might favor hurricane development, others would also interact to negate the issue, and is why most believed that the art of long-term forecasting (weeks or months in advance), to be highly unreliable for this very reason - that the Earth's atmosphere was far too complex and unpredictable to make such a forecast with any level of confidence. Unfortunately, NOAA stated just yesterday that their current forecast was accurate to within 95% - we'll see if they regret this comment.

What troubles me is the possibility that the season will either backfire and be much slower than normal, destroying the credibility of meteorologists across the board, or, and this is more of a distinct possibility, that, as mentioned by Dr. Gray's team, the season will be busy, but, will only feature a small number, or no other landfalling systems, again destroying the public's confidence in what has already been mentioned.

While the pattern does favor another busy season, the fine print above written by Dr. Gray's team clearly states (though some here seem to ignore it), that the chance of a given location (or state) seeing a landfalling hurricane is low, from year to year - even during an active season.

Frank

It only takes one! Andrew - Camille - Ivan

[southerngale]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

Wasn't Dennis a major at landfall ?

I'm referring to this point forward...

dwg, you are the most optimistic person I've seen on here. Unfortunately, probably a little too optimistic, but I hope you're right. Leave the devastating hurricanes over the open waters.

[WindRunner]

If you look at the month-by-month breakdown, well over half of the predictors "enhance" formation in September and October, but August's is about even. However, a little help from the MJO may discount the "suppression" IMO for August.

[x-y-no]

Unfortunately, NOAA stated just yesterday that their current forecast was accurate to within 95% - we'll see if they regret this comment.

HUH???

No they didn't.

They said there's a 95% or better probability of "an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season." Not the same thing as claiming 95% accuracy at all.

And since each of their predictions (18-21 tropical storms, 9-11 hurricanes, and 5-7 major) reflects more than a 5% range, it's not clear to me what claiming 95% accuracy would mean.

Anyone with your claimed work experience ought to be clear on this distinction.

Jan

[dwg71]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

Wasn't Dennis a major at landfall ?

I'm referring to this point forward...

dwg, you are the most optimistic person I've seen on here. Unfortunately, probably a little too optimistic, but I hope you're right. Leave the devastating hurricanes over the open waters.

I think some on here would call me a pessimist. lol I just think the dooms day predictions are annoying. 2 Hurricanes through mid August is not what I call a premonition of the apocolypse.

[seaswing]

Florida has had more landfalling TC than any other state, so yes they are always under the gun.

I realize that but until 2004, we have had some very quiet years. I realize we stick out like a sore thumb

[Swimdude]

I don't think he's ever predicted as high as 20 before... Ever. AND he tends to be conservative. Whew... That would put us a ways down the alphabet.

[WindRunner]

He's also saying 95 NSD's. I looked, and he's underestimated that number on 21 of the 24 forecasts. Maybe we'll hit 100 this season

[seaswing]

I agree, everyone should move away from Florida, especially the yanks!

Bad Kevin!....but true! oops did I say that?

[johngaltfla]

Very scary. Almost makes me want to run out and stock up now. I have only partially stocked up.

You've only "partially stocked up" and it's August 3rd?????????????????????

[johngaltfla]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

[dwg71]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

We need to stop building so close to the coast. State sponsored insurance is a joke. No competition = Huge Premiums. In the thousands, not hundreds.

[sweetpea]

Very scary. Almost makes me want to run out and stock up now. I have only partially stocked up.

You've only "partially stocked up" and it's August 3rd?????????????????????

It's called denial.