I predict that all non-fish hurricanes this year will be 3+

[JTD]

Given how rapidly Dennis and Emily developed and re-developed, 40 mb+ pressure drops in hours, I predict that all hurricanes that form this year that make it past 60 W will be at least category 3+ in intensity at some point in their lifespan.

I expect this to change around September 15th or so but as long as the current conditions hold and if SAL and MJO fade and we go back to the July set-up, I think each long-tracker hurricane that forms will be a monster.

IMO and purely speculation.

[deltadog03]

me too...i will go ya one better....i think a CAT 5 threatens the GOM....imo....

[Buck]

I think we will have at least 1 Cat 5 threaten the United States at some point this season.

[vbhoutex]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

[dwg71]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

[deltadog03]

I will go first...LOL I honestly think that if there was a cat 5 threatning the TX or LA coast maybe even biloxi...it will make landfall as cat 5. Now, I havn't done much research on this but, this is going by SST and the depths of SST. I wouldn't think AL/ FL panhandle would see this due to the history(recent) of storms making landfall there. They all weakend..BUT yes they were powerfull enough. I would say hatteras south to MIA has an equal shot at seeing a CAT5 landfall due to not many obstructions in the way and being that the Gulf stream is VERY warm it will allow for intensity to be maintained... FL west coast as well as the panhandle and north of hatters major cane lanfall is certainly possible...thats my opinion and i am sticking to it!!!!

[skysummit]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

That was then, this is now.

[Buck]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

I said "threaten the United States." This means that I think a Cat 5 will form and have a strong likelihood of landfalling in the US. It may or may not landfall and it may or may not be a Cat 5. Examples... Ivan was a Cat 5 that threatened the US. Isabel was a Cat 5 that threatened the US. Camille was a Cat 5 that threatened the US.

[dwg71]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

That was then, this is now.

Whats different, these are very active seasons and people are comparing the number of named storms and the increase in activity as their reasoning for cat 5 calls. Predicting intensity is a crap shoot, and the odds are so slim for a Cat 5 US landfall. So calling for one is too far fetched, imo. Let alone calling for specific areas to be hit.

[JTD]

Just to clarify, I think all hurricanes that pass 60 W until September 15th will reach cat 3+ at SOME point but i'm not at all sure that's what they will be at landfall. In fact, I doubt it.

However, I would say that if there is a cat 3-5 bearing down on Houston to Biloxi or a cat 3-5 bearing down on Miami north to say Savannah, Georgia, I think the storm is likely to hit at peak intensity.

All other points, not very likely.

[skysummit]

Well, I know that, and I'm not predicting a Cat 5. Conditions have absolutely perfect. It is possible though, and I think if any year had the chance, this could be the year, but who knows...only mother nature.

Overall though, I do believe we'll see a lot more major hurricanes. So far we've had 2 hurricanes and both were major. If this season could support record breaking activity, who's to say these same ingredients couldn't make the majority of hurricanes continue to be major?

[wxcrazytwo]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

That was then, this is now.

Whats different, these are very active seasons and people are comparing the number of named storms and the increase in activity as their reasoning for cat 5 calls. Predicting intensity is a crap shoot, and the odds are so slim for a Cat 5 US landfall. So calling for one is too far fetched, imo. Let alone calling for specific areas to be hit.

Do you not understand that there have been few seasons where they called for this many storms..REMEMBER THESE STORMS THAT HAVE HAPPENED THIS YEAR HAVE BEAT OUT YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO. I BELIEVE STEWART SAID IT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT GOING WITH YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO SET UP.. I THINK YOUR TROLLING..

[dwg71]

You think wrong, we've had two hurricanes thus far, and we are at least a week from another. So 2 canes by mid august is not that unusual. If a few things had changed we would be standing at 5. Brett, Gert, and Harvey could have just as easily not been named. But all did deserve to be named...

[southerngale]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

That was then, this is now.

Whats different, these are very active seasons and people are comparing the number of named storms and the increase in activity as their reasoning for cat 5 calls. Predicting intensity is a crap shoot, and the odds are so slim for a Cat 5 US landfall. So calling for one is too far fetched, imo. Let alone calling for specific areas to be hit.

Do you not understand that there have been few seasons where they called for this many storms..REMEMBER THESE STORMS THAT HAVE HAPPENED THIS YEAR HAVE BEAT OUT YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO. I BELIEVE STEWART SAID IT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT GOING WITH YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO SET UP.. I THINK YOUR TROLLING..

Watch it wxcrazy...no need for that!

[KWT]

I personally expect that by the end of the season we will have at least one cat-5 regardless of what else happens this season,due to recon finding winds that when cut down to the surface equalled 158mph,or category-5,not to mention the structure was amazingly impressive,upto cat-5 standard I believe.Even NHC believed that emily reached category-5,if only breifly.

So I belive this may well get rounded upto a category-5,however n the end I ain't the expert and its those peoples that will make the choice.

[wxcrazytwo]

Ok, CAT5ers. Will those CAT5's be CAT5 at landfall on either coast? Why or why not?

How many cat 5's in 1933 - Zero
How many cat 5's in 1995 - Zero

Dont count on one and dont bet the ranch. If you buy 10 lotto tickets your 10X as likley to win, but the odds are pretty far fetched.

That was then, this is now.

Whats different, these are very active seasons and people are comparing the number of named storms and the increase in activity as their reasoning for cat 5 calls. Predicting intensity is a crap shoot, and the odds are so slim for a Cat 5 US landfall. So calling for one is too far fetched, imo. Let alone calling for specific areas to be hit.

Do you not understand that there have been few seasons where they called for this many storms..REMEMBER THESE STORMS THAT HAVE HAPPENED THIS YEAR HAVE BEAT OUT YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO. I BELIEVE STEWART SAID IT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT GOING WITH YOUR TYPICAL CLIMO SET UP.. I THINK YOUR TROLLING..

Watch it wxcrazy...no need for that!

Okay, sorry. Won't happen again...

[storms in NC]

didn't they come back and say Andrew was a cat5. I maybe wrong

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Actually, dwg, the unusual thing is that the two were MAJOR HURRICANES......not just hurricanes.......and category 4s......and the fact that they both broke the July intensity record......so common sense would tell you, hey, that's not common.

Also the difference between 1933, 1995, and now is that fact that we have record SSTs out in the Atlantic Basin, which greatly increases the chance of seeing a category 5. Still not common to see a category 5, but, there is an increased chance.

[dwg71]

Actually, dwg, the unusual thing is that the two were MAJOR HURRICANES......not just hurricanes.......and category 4s......and the fact that they both broke the July intensity record......so common sense would tell you, hey, that's not common.

Also the difference between 1933, 1995, and now is that fact that we have record SSTs out in the Atlantic Basin, which greatly increases the chance of seeing a category 5. Still not common to see a category 5, but, there is an increased chance.

Increased chance, yes. Likely, no.