Southeast Texas Hurricane Landfall

[southerngale]

Some of you may think I'm crazy, but I was just wondering how others in this area felt. In my meteorologically challenged opinion, I feel pretty safe in my location, at least from this point on. (a little less in June and July) The last system that affected us was Allison, and that was the worst tropical storm in history, and was early June. Allison caused problems for me, and worse problems for others. I'm more talking about hurricanes. The last hurricane to make a direct hit here was Hurricane Bonnie in 1986, a strong cat.1, borderline cat.2, also in June.
Bonnie was bad enough and my family was without power for many days, close to a week I believe. The eye went over my house and my dad and a few neighbors moved a tree that blocked our street during that time, if I remember correctly. We suffered some damage, but nothing major. I recall watching those tall pine trees sway back and forth, knowing one was going to crush our house, and us, at any moment. I'd hear a snap, close my eyes and wait. Fortunately, that didn't happen.

Anyway, since that time, we've been threatened (and evacuations were ordered) for Andrew in 1992 and Lili in 2002. They both turned and hit Louisiana and didn't affect us. Other possible threats have turned to the east or hit further south along the central Texas coast, deep south Texas or Mexico. Of course I know that it could happen, I'm just saying that it seems like either the ridge is so strong, it sends them further south or a trough picks them up and they go east. Maybe I'm in one of the ideal locations along the Gulf Coast? Don't get me wrong...I always prepare. I'm stocked up on food, batteries, etc. although if it's bad enough, I'll evacuate anyway. I was just thinking about what the conditions would need to be for one to come this way. I know it's happened before and yes, I know it's possible and it only takes one...yada yada, all that. But I can't help but feel somewhat safe here as the ridge or trough always seems to be our friend (unfortunately, not for others who get the storm) and just wondered if others from this area felt anything similar. Or maybe I'm just nuts...

[jasons2k]

I do not feel safe, especially this year since every forecast I have seen gives Texas a higher than average chance of a strike this year. Most hurricanes strike Texas in August or September. As a general rule, Texas isn't safe until October....but even then we should always watch out.

[dwg71]

I do think SE TX most likely window is up to Sept 1. It can happen after, but its a lot less likely.

I would like to see all Hurricanes (not TSs) that have hit this area and look at the dates to see if my thinking is correct.

[southerngale]

Texas, yes. But I'm not talking about the entire Texas coastline. I'm specifically talking about Southeast Texas. I even mentioned hits further south in Texas in my post.

[Shoshana]

Carla in 1961 affected the entire Texas coast. And Carla showed up in September....

[KatDaddy]

Dont forget the Gilbert scare on Sept 22nd, 1900 Hurricane Sept 9, and Otc 4, 1949.

[deltadog03]

TX is NOOOWAY out of the woods for a major cane landfall....It would be obsured to think so right now...I'm not saying its going to happen but, dang its more than just a chance...oh yeah, in case you havn't seen the SST specially near galveston, there like right at 90. that would help either sustaining its strenght or helping it to deepen further.

[jasons2k]

Here are some great links about Texas (and SE TX) Hurricane Climatology:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/hurr_clim.htm
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm
http://www.tdi.state.tx.us/commish/storms/hcane9.html
http://www.wintertexans.com/texashurricanes.htm
http://www.txcn.com/sharedcontent/dws/spe/hurricane/
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/gulfcoast.htm
http://www.scubamom.com/hurricanes/

Alicia Account:
http://www.jimzura.com/Update901/PhotoA ... esPage.htm
TAMU Alicia Gallery (huge files) http://coastal.tamug.edu/scans/alicia/alicia.html

Carla:
http://montgomerystudio.com/lonestar/lsd_pg19.htm
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... 100/906821

[deltadog03]

thanks....

[southerngale]

TX is NOOOWAY out of the woods for a major cane landfall....It would be obsured to think so right now...I'm not saying its going to happen but, dang its more than just a chance...oh yeah, in case you havn't seen the SST specially near galveston, there like right at 90. that would help either sustaining its strenght or helping it to deepen further.

Yeah, the SST's are high but a cane has to get there first or it doesn't matter.

By "obsured" did you mean absurd? I don't think I'm being absurd as I never said Texas was out of the woods nor was I talking about all of Texas anyway. I was talking about Southeast Texas specifically as in this location, it seems that usually (obviously not always), a ridge pushes hurricanes further south in Texas or in Mexico, or a trough will pick up and take it east. I thought I was pretty clear in my original post, but maybe not.

I was in no way saying that one COULDN'T hit here. I do wonder what conditions would be ideal for that to happen though, considering the ridge and trough scenarios I mentioned above.

[Ivanhater]

dr. lyons just talked about hurricane cilia(sp?) which hit texas and they were expecting a cat 1 and got a 3, with a gust of 160mph, amazing..said today is the anniversary in about 10 min

[deltadog03]

yeah, sorry, i guess i should use the spell check. anyway, I WASN'T talking about you...sorry if it came off that way. I think dwg is acting like the threat is almost over. As well with some of my friends that live near houston. Your right a cane has to be present or it dosn't matter.. I guess my point was relative to the FL panhandle in that I think our waters are warm enough as well as deep enough to maintain a cat 5 satus...sorry for the confusion..

[southerngale]

N/P delta. I don't think dwg is saying our threat is almost over, but the chances do go down the further you get into hurricane season. From the links above, one of the titles is Most major storms to hit Texas start with A - B - C
Of course that doesn't take into consideration SEVEN named storms through July, but you get the idea.

[Galvestongirl]

Some of you may think I'm crazy, but I was just wondering how others in this area felt. In my meteorologically challenged opinion, I feel pretty safe in my location, at least from this point on. (a little less in June and July) The last system that affected us was Allison, and that was the worst tropical storm in history, and was early June. Allison caused problems for me, and worse problems for others. I'm more talking about hurricanes. The last hurricane to make a direct hit here was Hurricane Bonnie in 1986, a strong cat.1, borderline cat.2, also in June.
Bonnie was bad enough and my family was without power for many days, close to a week I believe. The eye went over my house and my dad and a few neighbors moved a tree that blocked our street during that time, if I remember correctly. We suffered some damage, but nothing major. I recall watching those tall pine trees sway back and forth, knowing one was going to crush our house, and us, at any moment. I'd hear a snap, close my eyes and wait. Fortunately, that didn't happen.

Anyway, since that time, we've been threatened (and evacuations were ordered) for Andrew in 1992 and Lili in 2002. They both turned and hit Louisiana and didn't affect us. Other possible threats have turned to the east or hit further south along the central Texas coast, deep south Texas or Mexico. Of course I know that it could happen, I'm just saying that it seems like either the ridge is so strong, it sends them further south or a trough picks them up and they go east. Maybe I'm in one of the ideal locations along the Gulf Coast? Don't get me wrong...I always prepare. I'm stocked up on food, batteries, etc. although if it's bad enough, I'll evacuate anyway. I was just thinking about what the conditions would need to be for one to come this way. I know it's happened before and yes, I know it's possible and it only takes one...yada yada, all that. But I can't help but feel somewhat safe here as the ridge or trough always seems to be our friend (unfortunately, not for others who get the storm) and just wondered if others from this area felt anything similar. Or maybe I'm just nuts...

I have felt this way for many years, if it doesnt come in june, july or mid-august, I feel relatively safe, I was always afraid to say it though because of risking being bashed. since alicia in 1983 it appears that this (my) area has a dome of reflectivity over it...lol. that being said, I am not saying it cannot or will not happen, just that I feel safer with hurricanes either going east or west.

[jasons2k]

Of course that doesn't take into consideration SEVEN named storms through July, but you get the idea.

That is the key caveat, like I said most TX hurricanes have been in either Aug. or Sept.

[Galvestongirl]

I do wonder what conditions would be ideal for that to happen though, considering the ridge and trough scenarios I mentioned above.

This is a good question......I hope someone can answer.

[Agua]

Yeah, there was a graphic put out by the NHC which displayed MAJOR cane landfalls since 1955. The thing that struck me was the paucity of storms making landfall along the upper TX coast. I mean, NONE. Only a few even came close but those went into LA, ultimately.

It appeared that TX Major canes went in around CC or Brownsville/south.

I'd wondered if it had something to do with climatology.

[dwg71]

Some of you may think I'm crazy, but I was just wondering how others in this area felt. In my meteorologically challenged opinion, I feel pretty safe in my location, at least from this point on. (a little less in June and July) The last system that affected us was Allison, and that was the worst tropical storm in history, and was early June. Allison caused problems for me, and worse problems for others. I'm more talking about hurricanes. The last hurricane to make a direct hit here was Hurricane Bonnie in 1986, a strong cat.1, borderline cat.2, also in June.
Bonnie was bad enough and my family was without power for many days, close to a week I believe. The eye went over my house and my dad and a few neighbors moved a tree that blocked our street during that time, if I remember correctly. We suffered some damage, but nothing major. I recall watching those tall pine trees sway back and forth, knowing one was going to crush our house, and us, at any moment. I'd hear a snap, close my eyes and wait. Fortunately, that didn't happen.

Anyway, since that time, we've been threatened (and evacuations were ordered) for Andrew in 1992 and Lili in 2002. They both turned and hit Louisiana and didn't affect us. Other possible threats have turned to the east or hit further south along the central Texas coast, deep south Texas or Mexico. Of course I know that it could happen, I'm just saying that it seems like either the ridge is so strong, it sends them further south or a trough picks them up and they go east. Maybe I'm in one of the ideal locations along the Gulf Coast? Don't get me wrong...I always prepare. I'm stocked up on food, batteries, etc. although if it's bad enough, I'll evacuate anyway. I was just thinking about what the conditions would need to be for one to come this way. I know it's happened before and yes, I know it's possible and it only takes one...yada yada, all that. But I can't help but feel somewhat safe here as the ridge or trough always seems to be our friend (unfortunately, not for others who get the storm) and just wondered if others from this area felt anything similar. Or maybe I'm just nuts...

I have felt this way for many years, if it doesnt come in june, july or mid-august, I feel relatively safe, I was always afraid to say it though because of risking being bashed. since alicia in 1983 it appears that this (my) area has a dome of reflectivity over it...lol. that being said, I am not saying it cannot or will not happen, just that I feel safer with hurricanes either going east or west.

Of course anything can happen, but I think after reviewing the links I would put my unscientific chances as follows:

For Hurricane to strike SE TX coast Freeport to LA/TX border.

June: 10%
July: 30%
August : 40%
Sept: 15%
Oct: 5%

This if a hurricane had to make landfall in this area this is what I would say would be the likely time of that storm.

[HouTXmetro]

I totally agree southerngale!!! The ridge and troughs/fronts always protect us from the big one here on the upper TX coast. Oh, and usually the door shuts after Mid august if you ask me.

[AussieMark]

dr. lyons just talked about hurricane cilia(sp?) which hit texas and they were expecting a cat 1 and got a 3, with a gust of 160mph, amazing..said today is the anniversary in about 10 min

Hurricane Celia in 1970 was quite intense and very peculiar.

That was from the Prelim report on Celia

Celia was a unique hurricane meteorologically in that most of the damage occurred in conjunction with explosive tornado-like winds that developed in the left semicircle. As Celia moved across the northern edge of Corpus Christi Bay the damage which occurred to the city of Corpus Christi to the south appeared to have resulted almost entirely from a few high energy bursts of west winds, all occurring in the course of about 15 minutes. The highest sustained winds were apparently no more than 120-130 mph. However, gust speeds locally reached values of 160 mph. Even to the right of the storm center the heaviest damage appeared to have occurred from south or southeast of the center.