95L Invest Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

Id rather just wait for the model runs to come out. That will most surely put me out of my misery.

<RICKY>

[TheShrimper]

Well, history proves that early developers that far east are almost guarenteed to be fish. I wouldn't get to excited about this being a low latitudinal runner viewing how far along it is developed already.

[Scorpion]

Hugo formed at 20 W.

[deltadog03]

ok, this sums it up for me right now....at least for the short term....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... etrkA.html

W or WNW movement!!!

[wxman57]

There are plenty of models already "out" to look at. I don't know what looking at BAMD or BAMM will tell you about the storm. Those models aren't really dynamic. So far, I haven't seen a single model that moves this system anywhere near the Caribbean. It's already at 13N/30W. Storms that form so far north and east rarely make it into the Caribbean. It's slightly possible that this storm could eventually threaten Bermuda, though. I think it has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Probably 90% chance fish, 10% east U.S. coast threat.

[Scorpion]

Eh hopefully not. I hate fish.

[TheShrimper]

If you had 1000.00 Scorpion, would it hit the islands or not...and thats a 1000.00 you earned and sweated for, not a token from Dad.

[cycloneye]

.. A BUILDING MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 16N28W
VERDES RIDGING SW TO 10N54W WHERE IT MEETS THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH. UPPER CONDITIONS ARE AS FAVORABLE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN
A WHILE WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH RETREATING WESTWARD SOME AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
FUELING INCREASING ITCZ CONVECTION S OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF
45W.

$$
BLAKE



From discussion at 8:05 PM Forecaster Blake talking about the ridge and trough situation in the atlantic.

[WeatherEmperor]

There are plenty of models already "out" to look at. I don't know what looking at BAMD or BAMM will tell you about the storm. Those models aren't really dynamic. So far, I haven't seen a single model that moves this system anywhere near the Caribbean. It's already at 13N/30W. Storms that form so far north and east rarely make it into the Caribbean. It's slightly possible that this storm could eventually threaten Bermuda, though. I think it has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Probably 90% chance fish, 10% east U.S. coast threat.

If that is the case then its already a fish. No sense in wasting time with models anymore

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

thanks for the post, so you tell me how in the heck the GFS takes it right through there?

[deltadog03]

There are plenty of models already "out" to look at. I don't know what looking at BAMD or BAMM will tell you about the storm. Those models aren't really dynamic. So far, I haven't seen a single model that moves this system anywhere near the Caribbean. It's already at 13N/30W. Storms that form so far north and east rarely make it into the Caribbean. It's slightly possible that this storm could eventually threaten Bermuda, though. I think it has a good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Probably 90% chance fish, 10% east U.S. coast threat.

If that is the case then its already a fish. No sense in wasting time with models anymore

<RICKY>

yeah, no kidding

[Scorpion]

Yea we are 100% sure its going to be a fish when its still an invest . Hugo formed at 13.2 N 20 W and still impacted the islands. You never know...

[cinlfla]

If that is the case then its already a fish. No sense in wasting time with models anymore

Thats not true weather patterns change everyday, we will just have to wait and see.

[SouthFloridawx]

What do you think cycloneeye? What's this thing gonna do.? Initial thoughts... My initial thoughts are that this is going to hear farther to the north and then as a trough builds to the east it could swing it towards the us. I guess we will have to wait till the models tonight.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yea we are 100% sure its going to be a fish when its still an invest . Hugo formed at 13.2 N 20 W and still impacted the islands. You never know...

lol hey im not the one who insisted it would be a fish. I felt I should wait for more model runs to come out before I say anything about it. wxweather guy said it would be 90% chance it being a major hurricane and 10% chance an US east coast threat. On the other hand, fish storms do happen. Not all storms threaten the US or any land.

<RICKY>

[jkt21787]

Yea we are 100% sure its going to be a fish when its still an invest . Hugo formed at 13.2 N 20 W and still impacted the islands. You never know...

He said he was 90% sure

Come on folks, don't bash his ideas, his analysis is very possible and quite realistic.

People already rolling their eyes over others' opinions and this storm isn't even a TD yet and is thousands of miles and days away from anybody.

[Scorpion]

I wasnt bashing wxman, I was bashing the fact that some people misread his ideas and thought it would definitely be a fish.

[deltadog03]

your right kevin, it is far away from anything right now....we will see...

[TheShrimper]

I know exactly where Hugo formed, where it impacted ect. How many others never even posed a threat to the Antilles? The answer is.... an overwhelming majority. Point made.

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 040038
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0000 050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.4W 13.2N 33.8W 13.8N 36.5W
BAMM 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.5W 13.0N 34.0W 13.5N 36.7W
A98E 12.3N 29.3W 12.6N 31.4W 13.0N 33.8W 13.6N 36.5W
LBAR 12.3N 29.3W 12.5N 31.7W 13.0N 34.7W 13.8N 37.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0000 050807 0000 050808 0000 050809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 39.0W 16.0N 43.2W 17.5N 46.8W 19.8N 49.9W
BAMM 14.1N 39.3W 15.1N 43.6W 16.7N 46.8W 19.4N 49.4W
A98E 13.8N 39.4W 14.9N 44.3W 15.2N 49.2W 15.1N 53.6W
LBAR 14.4N 41.4W 15.6N 48.1W 15.0N 53.2W 19.1N 51.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 29.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 24.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tracks are to the left of those offered by the global models...however, they still suggest the storm crossing 20° North well before 60° West...