95L Invest Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

do you have a link for that?

[WindRunner]

Wow 65kts - here comes Hurricane Irene!

[clfenwi]

do you have a link for that?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080400

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The I storm is normally the strongest storm of the season. Will this give Emily a run for its money? History over the last few years thinks so.

[WeatherEmperor]

it is pretty darn hard to imagine having the I named storm in the first week of August. Amazing....

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

Thank You!

[Scorpion]

If it is a fish, then it likely won't be near the strongest. I cannot recall any Cat 5 that was a fish.

[wxman57]

Oh, I wouldn't say for sure it won't be an east coast threat. There may be a slight chance it will miss the trof and continue westward toward the Caribbean or the east U.S. coast. Generally, though, storms that form so far north that far east do so because the ridge to the north is weaker than normal. The fact that it's moving more slowly confirms the weakness in the ridge. Here's a streamline chart I made valid 12Z Aug 10th. It's mean flow from 700mb-400mb. Shows Irene heading off to the north and out to sea, but Jose heading west toward the Caribbean in its wake. 12Z GFS put Jose into Pensacola on the 15th. Or course, the 18Z made Jose a fish right behind Irene. Just pull the handle on the GFS slot machine every 6 hours and get different results. However, it's not just the GFS saying "fish". It's the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, MM5, and GFS. NOGAPS doesn't really "see" it, but it does show a major weakness in the ridge ahead of the system. So with all the global models agreeing, I'd tend to have more confidence in a northerly turn well east of the Caribbean.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene10.gif">

[Hurricaneman]

Me neither

[Andrew92]

If it is a fish, then it likely won't be near the strongest. I cannot recall any Cat 5 that was a fish.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

There's a little white on each of those tracks. Know what it means? Category 5. These two were fish C5's.

-Andrew92

[clfenwi]

[Rainband]

Oh, I wouldn't say for sure it won't be an east coast threat. There may be a slight chance it will miss the trof and continue westward toward the Caribbean or the east U.S. coast. Generally, though, storms that form so far north that far east do so because the ridge to the north is weaker than normal. The fact that it's moving more slowly confirms the weakness in the ridge. Here's a streamline chart I made valid 12Z Aug 10th. It's mean flow from 700mb-400mb. Shows Irene heading off to the north and out to sea, but Jose heading west toward the Caribbean in its wake. 12Z GFS put Jose into Pensacola on the 15th. Or course, the 18Z made Jose a fish right behind Irene. Just pull the handle on the GFS slot machine every 6 hours and get different results. However, it's not just the GFS saying "fish". It's the ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian, MM5, and GFS. NOGAPS doesn't really "see" it, but it does show a major weakness in the ridge ahead of the system. So with all the global models agreeing, I'd tend to have more confidence in a northerly turn well east of the Caribbean.

well seems to early to prog a system that hasn't even formed yet? Meaning jose.. The GFS seems to be the model this saeson from what I have seen.

[senorpepr]

Invest (95L / 95L) (04/0000Z)
Position: 12.3°N 29.3°W (430 miles WSW from Praia, Cape Verde)
Movement: W at 10 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77''
Dvorak Est: Too weak

[Scorpion]

Doubt that they were 5's. They had no recon back then to prove it.

[Hurricaneman]

Who knows

[SouthFloridawx]

When do they classify this thing as a TD 9?

[gkrangers]

When do they classify this thing as a TD 9?

When its worthy of being classified?

[Coredesat]

That LBAR model is on drugs. As usual.

[SouthFloridawx]

for the explination that really clears things up.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Isn't it funny how when an exciting new system develops we act like hungry dogs with only bone? Fish, No Fish, trout, crab...who knows. I can safely say without caveat or disclaimer that the models will NOT accurately forcast the position of this system in 240 hours or more. That's the beauty of this forum I guess. Anybody have the historical plots of storms that formed here? Be interesting to compare