95L Invest Thread

[johngaltfla]

95L

Dang I'm good. I called that one 5 hours ago, LOL.

TS Irene in 36 hours for those that care. THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY AND NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST....

[Rainband]

Helen Keller could have called this. JK Great Job

[johngaltfla]

So we will we be welcoming the 9th named storm of the year, soon?

What do you think I'm thinking?

[jimvb]

GFS says this Invest is going to go Fish. That is, if you believe GFS from this far out. But the last dozen or so runs have been saying the same thing now - Fish. It's the storms following this Invest that to me are of some concern. GFS 00Z last night (or was it 06Z?) showed it following a Charley path around Florida, and a previous run showed it approaching the Carolinas ominously. The lastest or 18Z now shows it will follow the Fish and become Fish itself, and the NEXT one after that then threatens the East Coast.

It's interesting watching these canes on the ocean on the GFS. It looks like a Dance of the Hurricanes, using the Atlantic as a stage.

[johngaltfla]

Helen Keller could have called this. JK Great Job

LOL, shame on you. Even us blind squirrels find an acorn every now and then.


Seriously though, I do fear this storm. It's in the right position, in the right place to cause a lot of problems in 10-14 days.

If this develops into a 3 plus, I fear the CV season will get brutal rather quickly.

After reading about the lack of preps of some S2K members, I do hope there is some degree of urgency for everyone from Texas to Mass.

This is not a "normal" season, IMHO. I fear a new standard for seasons was set last year, only to be exceeded this year.

[clfenwi]

Doubt that they were 5's. They had no recon back then to prove it.

Recon started flying in 1944. Don't know for a fact that they flew into those storms, but they were flying back then.

Also, the argument is the reverse:

Chris Landsea:

Before aircraft and satellite reconnaissance, it was simply not possible to detect such small transient features offshore consistently or reliably. [1981] demonstrated that even when numerous ships and buoys are in a strong tropical cyclone, the actual intensity is likely to be drastically underestimated without aircraft or satellite data.

from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/20 ... canes.html

[WindRunner]

Well, I'm prepared. My mountains are set up and are the most hurricane-proof things I know of

[Brent]

The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

[cinlfla]

Anybody have the historical plots of storms that formed here? Be interesting to compare

This is pretty close to where Ivan formed, of course I do understand there are different steering patterns in place.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan1.gif

[Scorpion]

Cant believe we could have the J storm soon after this. Jeanne formed on what, September 15? And its only the 3rd of August!

[johngaltfla]

The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

Coffee. Must have coffee. Care to wager on plywood prices in Florida in 7 days?

[Scorpion]

This likely isn't going to FL. The one following it depicted by the GFS we cant say for sure though.

[johngaltfla]

This likely isn't going to FL. The one following it depicted by the GFS we cant say for sure though.

Care to make the same wager the "experts" did about Charley 1 year ago?

Don't ever use the words "likely", "ever", "never", etc.

Remember what the NHC said about Climatology last month....

[BensonTCwatcher]

Seems like a bunch of storms that made it N of the 20/60 intersection went on the impact FL and the East Coast. In fact Isabel looked a fish at this point but...

[Scorpion]

There were indications that Frances would be a fish at first too.

[Andrew92]

Doubt that they were 5's. They had no recon back then to prove it.

YES THEY DID. Recon started in the '40s.

Reconnaissance found 140-kt winds in Easy in 1951. If you don't believe me, click here and go to the end of Page 3 and the beginning of Page 4:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... b/1951.pdf

Recon also visited Cleo before she became a C5 as well.

Do I think 95L will be a C5? No. Do I think it will become Irene? Yes.

-Andrew92

[micktooth]

I think we need a little more time with this one. Let's get a definite plot on the center of circulation and see how the s and trends pan out.

[TheShrimper]

What wager regarding Charley are you eluding to?

[feederband]

The models have it as Irene tomorrow evening... seems very possible given the current trends.

This is gonna be a lllllllllllooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg two months.

We just had a long 2 months.......

[tracyswfla]

So we will we be welcoming the 9th named storm of the year, soon?

What do you think I'm thinking?

RUN get more!