Harvey Recon Reports=Mission for afternoon cancelled

[Thunder44]

In fact the strongest winds they found so far in the NW quad this morning was 37kts at flight level.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No wonder the island is not seeing strong winds.

[wxman57]

Wxman, those 62kt winds winds were found in the SE quad and latest vortex found wind 59 kt winds in SE quad again. The center went just to south of Bermuda, so they strongest winds may have missed them to the south.

Yeah, I know the stronger winds AT FL were found in the southeast quadrant. But they were flying into the entrance region of the jet around the upper low in that quadrant. As such, those FL winds were quite likely not representative of surface winds. That is, the FL-SFC wind conversion factor for a subtropical storm like Harvey would not be the same as for a truly tropical storm. Even QuickSCAT says 25-30 kts max on the latest pass in the SE quadrant.

It's obvious that recon didn't want to waste many dropsondes to actually measure surface winds in this storm. Direct measurements of winds in the SE quadrant would likely have found 25-35 kts max. NHC was just being conservative due to the proximity to Bermuda.

That said, morning visible imagery makes Harvey look almost tropical as it passes east of Bermuda.

[Thunder44]

Wxman, those 62kt winds winds were found in the SE quad and latest vortex found wind 59 kt winds in SE quad again. The center went just to south of Bermuda, so they strongest winds may have missed them to the south.

Yeah, I know the stronger winds AT FL were found in the southeast quadrant. But they were flying into the entrance region of the jet around the upper low in that quadrant. As such, those FL winds were quite likely not representative of surface winds. That is, the FL-SFC wind conversion factor for a subtropical storm like Harvey would not be the same as for a truly tropical storm. Even QuickSCAT says 25-30 kts max on the latest pass in the SE quadrant.

It's obvious that recon didn't want to waste many dropsondes to actually measure surface winds in this storm. Direct measurements of winds in the SE quadrant would likely have found 25-35 kts max. NHC was just being conservative due to the proximity to Bermuda.

That said, morning visible imagery makes Harvey look almost tropical as it passes east of Bermuda.

I think they did make an observation of the sea-surface wave heights. What would you find more reliable? This is an excerpt from the 2pm Special Advisory disscussion yesterday:

THE 62 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IN FACT
THE FLIGHT CREW MADE A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would trust the recon...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0408A HARVEY
C. 04/1230Z
D. 32.5N 64.0W
E. 04/1700Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Next flight this afternoon.

[Thunder44]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT THU 04 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 04/1230Z TAKEOFF FOR
HARVEY CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/0330Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

Well since the mission has been cancelled I will take out the sticky.

[Scorpion]

Why was it cancelled?

[Thunder44]

Why was it cancelled?

Probably because it no longer poses any threat to land. It's moving away from Bermuda.