MODEL shows cane over ne ga in 5 days!!!

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MODEL shows cane over ne ga in 5 days!!!

#1 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:56 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:59 am

Its possible but not likely...But worth watching... :roll:
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#3 Postby MortisFL » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:59 am

the very reliable MM5 *coughs*
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:02 am

Don't worry, that's the worst model they have. It develops the low that's in the N central gulf. Considering it shows it developing inland into a Cat1(?) , you have nothing to worry about. :D
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:03 am

Even so this is the start of a 500 year active period. At least I think so. I don't think this make it out of the boxs this system.
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#6 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:10 am

Anything seems possible the way this year is going.
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wxcrazytwo

#7 Postby wxcrazytwo » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:01 am

I thought the mm5FSU is stinky.
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#8 Postby weatherwindow » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:40 am

a former colleague of mine, who is a senior forecaster for nws/eyw, used to refer to the old avn as the "disney model" for its propensity to spin up a trop cyclone at the drop of a hat....i do believe that we now have a new candidate for the "disney" designation .....no disrespect intended. 8-) ......rich
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#9 Postby Trader Ron » Thu Aug 04, 2005 8:22 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Even so this is the start of a 500 year active period. At least I think so. I don't think this make it out of the boxs this system.


Huh...500 years? :roll: :D
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Jim Cantore

#10 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:34 am

it is possible but I dont see it happening
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Jim Cantore

#11 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:35 am

can someone send me the site when all these models are
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#12 Postby TS Zack » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:38 am

Thats baroclinic I think.
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#13 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:39 am

One would think it would lose some strength over land, and not still be a hurricane in North Georgia. Don't see it.
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#14 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:42 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:can someone send me the site when all these models are


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//
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#15 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:44 am

it wouldn't be Irene( to be) cause it would take 7-9 days to get there
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#16 Postby skufful » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:59 am

The model has this forming near NO, so correct, no irene
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#17 Postby BayouVenteux » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:59 am

storms in NC wrote:it wouldn't be Irene( to be) cause it would take 7-9 days to get there


Unless another run has been generated since I last looked at it earlier this morning, that low over GA depicted is one that the MM5 FSU spins up over SE Louisiana/S Mississippi, then moves off to the NE. While there is troughiness and an area of circulation popping up...mostly over land, nothing has warranted any second glances thus far...just garden variety afternoon t-storms and downpours in the forecast for the next 3 or 4 days.

more on the area:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69747
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