Derek Ortt wrote:if we dont see more convection, this wont even be classified as a TD
Huh?
95L Invest Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4430
- Age: 44
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148500
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Derek Ortt wrote:well, this appears to be an obvious US East Coast threat. The UL to the north near 40W is not a player and Harvey is too small to weaken the ridge
Is the first time that I see somone of proffesional background say that as the out ofsea talk has been overwelming.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
*Already TS
*not likely even depression without more convection
*closed low
*no closed low
*fish
*US hit
*nothing
Wow, there are sure a bunch of different opinions on here, huh?
It doesn't look as good in the center as last night. It looks better overall, but to me appears as if some of the dry air is impeding the north sides. Will that snuff it, keep the lid on it, or have no effect after reaching 45W - I wouldn't venture to say.
Do I believe the models now - no way! Too many "uh-oh's" in the past looking this far out, I've learned my lesson.
But I'll say one thing totally unscientific, maybe crack it up to women's intuition, maybe 30 years watching weather every day; the fact that this system, if it gets named, will start with an "I", and is located where it is, makes me sit up and take notice. Something about it worries me, and I won't rest until it's crossed 20N, whatever it is!!
I'm sure there's plenty more worrying for me to do the rest of this amazing season, so if this one doesn't make it, I won't lose out on some more forehead wrinkles.
*not likely even depression without more convection
*closed low
*no closed low
*fish
*US hit
*nothing
Wow, there are sure a bunch of different opinions on here, huh?
It doesn't look as good in the center as last night. It looks better overall, but to me appears as if some of the dry air is impeding the north sides. Will that snuff it, keep the lid on it, or have no effect after reaching 45W - I wouldn't venture to say.
Do I believe the models now - no way! Too many "uh-oh's" in the past looking this far out, I've learned my lesson.
But I'll say one thing totally unscientific, maybe crack it up to women's intuition, maybe 30 years watching weather every day; the fact that this system, if it gets named, will start with an "I", and is located where it is, makes me sit up and take notice. Something about it worries me, and I won't rest until it's crossed 20N, whatever it is!!
I'm sure there's plenty more worrying for me to do the rest of this amazing season, so if this one doesn't make it, I won't lose out on some more forehead wrinkles.
0 likes
-
Derek Ortt
it has already missed the UL near 40W. It would have had to have been better developed than it currently is to make that quick turn.
All guidance has been shifting to the left. Still looking north of the islands.
Does not mean a landfall, but just an east coast threat. This does seem similar to edouard, though it should not be a major cane east of the islands
All guidance has been shifting to the left. Still looking north of the islands.
Does not mean a landfall, but just an east coast threat. This does seem similar to edouard, though it should not be a major cane east of the islands
0 likes
-
Derek Ortt
-
wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Derek Ortt wrote:oh its probably a TS now. NHC likely wont upgrade if it doesnt improve. Not sure why they didnt upgrade LAST NIGHT
As someone else said, the NHC won't upgrade unless they have some visible sat images. And they don't upgrade in the morning cause they don't have enuf visibles to spot a trend in organization and/or convection.
0 likes
-
SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148500
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Please dont post polls in this thread as the information about 95L has to flow without distractions.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
OK I'm Sold
In my best sense of things I was sure we would have a lull and gap for a good part of August. (Buzzer sound for NO)
This is the first CV wave to really curve up in the ITCZ and it has impressive size as well.
Looks like Gray is verifying and the 2005 SST's are translating straight.
As I said in another post, those hot SST pockets close to the US coast will keep any big storms from weakening like they did last year.-This could be bad.
The one good thing is the Bermuda High is obviously different than last year and an Atlantic track could be establishing...
In my best sense of things I was sure we would have a lull and gap for a good part of August. (Buzzer sound for NO)
This is the first CV wave to really curve up in the ITCZ and it has impressive size as well.
Looks like Gray is verifying and the 2005 SST's are translating straight.
As I said in another post, those hot SST pockets close to the US coast will keep any big storms from weakening like they did last year.-This could be bad.
The one good thing is the Bermuda High is obviously different than last year and an Atlantic track could be establishing...
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 04, 2005 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
Scorpion
Yup. Out to sea- hopefully we'll see a good number of silly fishes.
But is it possible for the B-High to get stronger and build more beacuse of the hotter SST's that promote sinking air? Or do I have the causitive factors in the SST-B-High relationship backwards?
Why do you say that now when the trend is to the left? This most likely will NOT be a fish.
0 likes
-
Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5598
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
-
Scorpion
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: hurricanes1234 and 329 guests